Coronavirus Simulator - Understanding The Various Strategies

[Bush92]

Models ARE NOT facts... They depend on the quality of data and statistical VALIDITY of the numbers you put into them.. It will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at "number of infections" becomes strong enough to model...

Where did you get the idea it will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at number of infections becomes strong enough to model?

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

"One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause.

"The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

"The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population.

"Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios."

"That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said.

"As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."

IF 214 MILLION people are infected, you KNOW they are not even all going to know they are ill, let alone even be ill enough to visit a dr. C'mon this not the Bubonic Plague, yet here we are crashing our economy over it.

See my post "1.5% of 327 million"

 

[flacaltenn]

Models ARE NOT facts... They depend on the quality of data and statistical VALIDITY of the numbers you put into them.. It will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at "number of infections" becomes strong enough to model...

Where did you get the idea it will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at number of infections becomes strong enough to model?

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

"One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause.

"The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

"The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population.

"Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios."

"That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said.

"As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."

IF 214 MILLION people are infected, you KNOW they are not even all going to know they are ill, let alone even be ill enough to visit a dr. C'mon this not the Bubonic Plague, yet here we are crashing our economy over it.

See my post "1.5% of 327 million"

Modeling of anything is only as good as the GUESSES you put in.. NOBODY including the CDC or the idiots that let the press run with their "worst case" estimates -- KNOWS what the infection number will be THIS flu season or next.

With no vaccine -- EVENTUALLY, over a couple years, everyone MIGHT be infected..

But NO WAY will the "327 Million" happen in this round.. Not with proactive measures and guidance from CDC (if followed)...

And BTW -- the CDC ESTIMATE of "death rate" is closer to 0.75%... Got that from Fauci and Birx this week MULTIPLE times... NOT 1.5%.....

Can't put "deaths" in the numerator and put "diagnosed cases" in the denominator and divide.. The CDC and EVERYONE ELSE is guessing at the number of infected as ABOUT 2 times the diagnosed cases... That's the diff between 1.5% and 0.75%

 

[james bond]

"Flattening the curve" will not stop the virus from spreading; it will not eradicate the virus. Here in CA, it is more likely than not that nearly the entire population will be exposed to and/or contract the virus within the next 12 months. That's a fact! We are trying to "slow" the spread in an effort to keep our hospitals from becoming completely irrelevant and useless. People will die, who would otherwise survive, if we don't do everything possible to effectively decrease and manage the deluge of critically ill likely to descend on our health care providers this week.

The Federal response to this crisis has been pathetic and terrifying. Donald Trump lives on a different planet than the rest of us. He is completely incapable of distinguishing reality from a "reality show." The name of the game right now is "prepare for the worst and hope for the best." Better to err on the side of caution than throw it to the wind. Who do I believe in all of this? Dr. Fauci!

Here in CA we are very fortunate. The coordination among local governments, CA OES, and FEMA is robust and effective. Is it perfect? Absolutely not. But, our emergency service providers are well trained, professional, and experienced. We've come through earthquake, fires, floods, and HIV. We will come through this too! We all need to do our part to ensure as few of our relatives, friends, neighbors, etc. die in the process.

I believe in flattening the curve or else our medical support will collapse. This is just starting and people aren't taking it seriously enough. You've heard the news over the weekend. We've had 2 people die in the neighborhood and yet we have people going fishing every day for hours. I suppose we had people go out to the parks as well as the river here. So far, we've had more people die than in San Francisco. At least, testing has begun yesterday but not for the regular citizens.

 

[Zander]

A lot of stuff circulating on the internet right now about the various methods of potential action being taken and considered. Social distancing, shelter in place, total lockdown etc..

This article, which includes some simulators on various methods, makes some sense to me.

"Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Make of it what you will. Thought I would post it, as it helped me to compare some of the various solutions based on a model of the spread of this thing, which seems to be a primary concern at the moment.

According to your link, "If the number of cases were to continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases in the United States by May."

Does that imply two to three million Covid-19 deaths in the US by Mother's Day?

If the virus is that contagious, then millions of people are already infected. That means the mortality rate will be far lower.

 

[jc456]

"Flattening the curve" will not stop the virus from spreading; it will not eradicate the virus. Here in CA, it is more likely than not that nearly the entire population will be exposed to and/or contract the virus within the next 12 months. That's a fact! We are trying to "slow" the spread in an effort to keep our hospitals from becoming completely irrelevant and useless. People will die, who would otherwise survive, if we don't do everything possible to effectively decrease and manage the deluge of critically ill likely to descend on our health care providers this week.

The Federal response to this crisis has been pathetic and terrifying. Donald Trump lives on a different planet than the rest of us. He is completely incapable of distinguishing reality from a "reality show." The name of the game right now is "prepare for the worst and hope for the best." Better to err on the side of caution than throw it to the wind. Who do I believe in all of this? Dr. Fauci!

Here in CA we are very fortunate. The coordination among local governments, CA OES, and FEMA is robust and effective. Is it perfect? Absolutely not. But, our emergency service providers are well trained, professional, and experienced. We've come through earthquake, fires, floods, and HIV. We will come through this too! We all need to do our part to ensure as few of our relatives, friends, neighbors, etc. die in the process.

I believe in flattening the curve or else our medical support will collapse. This is just starting and people aren't taking it seriously enough. You've heard the news over the weekend. We've had 2 people die in the neighborhood and yet we have people going fishing every day for hours. I suppose we had people go out to the parks as well as the river here. So far, we've had more people die than in San Francisco. At least, testing has begun yesterday but not for the regular citizens.

where will that happen? prove it.

 

[Aletheia4u]

HUGE! Russia And UK Declare No Need For Quarantine

Alex Jones breaks down how the U.K. and Russia have announced there is no need for a hard quarantine to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

banned.video

 

[Baron]

A lot of stuff circulating on the internet right now about the various methods of potential action being taken and considered. Social distancing, shelter in place, total lockdown etc..

This article, which includes some simulators on various methods, makes some sense to me.

"Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Make of it what you will. Thought I would post it, as it helped me to compare some of the various solutions based on a model of the spread of this thing, which seems to be a primary concern at the moment.

The only right strategy is to stop insanity.
There is not pandemic, but a NWO conspiracy to rob and to kill us.

 

[jc456]

A lot of stuff circulating on the internet right now about the various methods of potential action being taken and considered. Social distancing, shelter in place, total lockdown etc..

This article, which includes some simulators on various methods, makes some sense to me.

"Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Make of it what you will. Thought I would post it, as it helped me to compare some of the various solutions based on a model of the spread of this thing, which seems to be a primary concern at the moment.

The only right strategy is to stop insanity.
There is not pandemic, but a NWO conspiracy to rob and to kill us.

well it was a pandemic, it was across the globe. that's what made it that. But, it doesn't mean in every country there was an epidemic, and that's the lie.

 

[MindWars]

OH look helping the economy to sink even faster LOL...... dumb sob!

 

[fncceo]

Coronavirus Simulator

Worst video game, evah!

 

[MindWars]

View attachment 315855

HUGE! Russia And UK Declare No Need For Quarantine

Alex Jones breaks down how the U.K. and Russia have announced there is no need for a hard quarantine to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

banned.video

Hope you don't live in Texas LOL

 

[Aletheia4u]

View attachment 315855

HUGE! Russia And UK Declare No Need For Quarantine

Alex Jones breaks down how the U.K. and Russia have announced there is no need for a hard quarantine to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

banned.video

Hope you don't live in Texas LOL

View attachment 316148

I don't live in the Dallas area. But if I did, this is what I'll be doing if they came up to my door.

 

[Newtonian]

Quarantine is clearly one strategy - in harmony with the Biblical teaching. The Bible also states that a person touching a dead body would be unclean for a number of days, Our website, on its home page, lists a number of 'strategies' which protect us from diseases:

www.jw.org

The specific article from 2016:

https://www.jw.org/en/library/magazines/awake-no6-2016-december/protect-yourself-from-disease/

After noting the importance of using uncontaminated water (1), the article goes on:

2. "THE THREAT: Harmful organisms can be present in or on your food.

YOUR DEFENSE: Contaminated food may look fresh and nutritious. So get into the habit of thoroughly washing all fruits and vegetables. Ensure that food utensils, kitchen surfaces, and your hands are clean when preparing or serving food. Some foods require cooking at a certain temperature in order to destroy dangerous microbes....
Avoid preparing food for others when you are sick."

3. Insects {see the article).
4. Animals - see the article but note the warning to wash hands after touching.

5 PEOPLE

THE THREAT: Some germs can invade your body by riding on tiny droplets in someone’s cough or sneeze. They can also spread through skin contact, such as hugging or shaking hands. Microorganisms from other people may lurk on such items as doorknobs, handrails, telephones, remote controls, or computer screens and keyboards.

YOUR DEFENSE: Do not share personal items, such as razors, toothbrushes, or towels. Avoid contact with body fluids from animals or from other people, including blood and products derived from blood. And do not underestimate the benefits of washing your hands thoroughly and frequently. It is perhaps the most effective way you can stop the spread of infection.

If possible, stay home when you are sick. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that you cough or sneeze into a tissue or your sleeve, but not into your hands.

An ancient proverb states: “The shrewd one sees the danger and conceals himself.” (Proverbs 22:3) How true are those words today in a world plagued with potentially dangerous diseases! So inform yourself by consulting local health services, and conceal yourself from danger by practicing good hygiene. Bolster your defenses, and reduce the risk of disease!"

The article ends with a 'box' concerning how we protected ourselves during the 2014 Ebola epidemic in western Africa - I will post a few of the points - see the article for more:

"We used infrared thermometers to check the temperature of those arriving for meetings at our places of worship. Everyone carefully avoided unnecessary physical contact, such as shaking hands or hugging, and washed their hands frequently throughout the day. At strategic locations throughout the communities, handwashing stations were set up with a bleach solution....

The government imposed quarantines in some areas, so public meetings were canceled for a time. In those areas, families met at home for their worship."

Here in SE Louisiana we cancelled our public meetings and door to door witnessing. We use the phone including conference calls to worship together as a congregation and keep in touch (without touching). We also use an internet download to see each other and give our personal comments at our meetings (starting this Sunday in our congregation). The article concludes:

"What happened if someone showed symptoms?

Authorities were notified. Any individuals who had been in contact with an Ebola victim, had attended a funeral of a victim, or showed symptoms kept themselves isolated for 21 days, the commonly accepted maximum incubation period for the Ebola virus."

 

[Aletheia4u]

Quarantine is clearly one strategy - in harmony with the Biblical teaching. The Bible also states that a person touching a dead body would be unclean for a number of days, Our website, on its home page, lists a number of 'strategies' which protect us from diseases:

www.jw.org

The specific article from 2016:

https://www.jw.org/en/library/magazines/awake-no6-2016-december/protect-yourself-from-disease/

After noting the importance of using uncontaminated water (1), the article goes on:

2. "THE THREAT: Harmful organisms can be present in or on your food.

YOUR DEFENSE: Contaminated food may look fresh and nutritious. So get into the habit of thoroughly washing all fruits and vegetables. Ensure that food utensils, kitchen surfaces, and your hands are clean when preparing or serving food. Some foods require cooking at a certain temperature in order to destroy dangerous microbes....
Avoid preparing food for others when you are sick."

3. Insects {see the article).
4. Animals - see the article but note the warning to wash hands after touching.

5 PEOPLE

THE THREAT: Some germs can invade your body by riding on tiny droplets in someone’s cough or sneeze. They can also spread through skin contact, such as hugging or shaking hands. Microorganisms from other people may lurk on such items as doorknobs, handrails, telephones, remote controls, or computer screens and keyboards.

YOUR DEFENSE: Do not share personal items, such as razors, toothbrushes, or towels. Avoid contact with body fluids from animals or from other people, including blood and products derived from blood. And do not underestimate the benefits of washing your hands thoroughly and frequently. It is perhaps the most effective way you can stop the spread of infection.

If possible, stay home when you are sick. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that you cough or sneeze into a tissue or your sleeve, but not into your hands.

An ancient proverb states: “The shrewd one sees the danger and conceals himself.” (Proverbs 22:3) How true are those words today in a world plagued with potentially dangerous diseases! So inform yourself by consulting local health services, and conceal yourself from danger by practicing good hygiene. Bolster your defenses, and reduce the risk of disease!"

The article ends with a 'box' concerning how we protected ourselves during the 2014 Ebola epidemic in western Africa - I will post a few of the points - see the article for more:

"We used infrared thermometers to check the temperature of those arriving for meetings at our places of worship. Everyone carefully avoided unnecessary physical contact, such as shaking hands or hugging, and washed their hands frequently throughout the day. At strategic locations throughout the communities, handwashing stations were set up with a bleach solution....

The government imposed quarantines in some areas, so public meetings were canceled for a time. In those areas, families met at home for their worship."

Here in SE Louisiana we cancelled our public meetings and door to door witnessing. We use the phone including conference calls to worship together as a congregation and keep in touch (without touching). We also use an internet download to see each other and give our personal comments at our meetings (starting this Sunday in our congregation). The article concludes:

"What happened if someone showed symptoms?

Authorities were notified. Any individuals who had been in contact with an Ebola victim, had attended a funeral of a victim, or showed symptoms kept themselves isolated for 21 days, the commonly accepted maximum incubation period for the Ebola virus."

It is 24 hours that they must stay away. Even those that are on their monthly cycle, because the body is filtering out the trash they has accumulated. Which the word quarantine originated from Rome. When the Jews fasted. They stayed away from all temptation. And which the number four symbolizes purification. like when the Hebrews waited 400 years to enter the land that have God promised to them.

The Origin Of The Word 'Quarantine'

How does one decide the strength of a planet which is COMBUST and in its own sign?

Answer (1 of 11): Combustion is something that needs to be understood in the same manner as conjunction but with slight variation. One need to focus that which planet is ahead of sun and which is behind and more importance is to be given to the planet that is slow in nature. Just for example if V...

www.quora.com

Leviticus 19:23 “‘When you enter the land and plant any kind of fruit tree, regard its fruit as forbidden. For three years you are to consider it forbidden; it must not be eaten. 24 In the fourth year all its fruit will be holy, an offering of praise to the Lord.

 

[MindWars]

View attachment 315855

HUGE! Russia And UK Declare No Need For Quarantine

Alex Jones breaks down how the U.K. and Russia have announced there is no need for a hard quarantine to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

banned.video

Hope you don't live in Texas LOL

View attachment 316148

I don't live in the Dallas area. But if I did, this is what I'll be doing if they came up to my door.

Maybe you can find some of these a.holes while at it

Let's partake in some snitching shall we omfg

 

[Aletheia4u]

View attachment 315855

HUGE! Russia And UK Declare No Need For Quarantine

Alex Jones breaks down how the U.K. and Russia have announced there is no need for a hard quarantine to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

banned.video

Hope you don't live in Texas LOL

View attachment 316148

I don't live in the Dallas area. But if I did, this is what I'll be doing if they came up to my door.

Maybe you can find some of these a.holes while at it

Let's partake in some snitching shall we omfg

View attachment 316295

 

[Cassandro]

Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially

If it did, we would all be infected by now.

 

[Aletheia4u]

Chris Carter Said CIA Planted X-Files Plot, Plus Simpsons Predicts Corona

Alex Jones breaks down the predictive programming in popular media preparing people for smart cities, bubble cities and dome cities.

banned.video

 

[MindWars]

Here is a strategy sheep can't fathome

The patient who recieved the transplant on the 28th of February had been told they had only days to live having suffered irreparable damage to their lungs from COVID-19, but within 5 days a matching ‘brain dead’ donor had been found and the lungs sent to them by high-speed rail.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

IF 214 MILLION people are infected, you KNOW they are not even all going to know they are ill, let alone even be ill enough to visit a dr. C'mon this not the Bubonic Plague, yet here we are crashing our economy over it.

Our capitalist economy?
Maybe this is too good of a crisis to let go to waste?
It's time to consider "radical" alternatives like the guaranteed annual wage that prioritize productive workers over parasitic shareholders.

It's worth a try. Without investors there would be no business and no workers. It is right and good that such workers should suffer until they realize just who it is that pays their bills.