Bush92
GHBush1992
- May 23, 2014
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See my post "1.5% of 327 million"Where did you get the idea it will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at number of infections becomes strong enough to model?Models ARE NOT facts... They depend on the quality of data and statistical VALIDITY of the numbers you put into them.. It will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at "number of infections" becomes strong enough to model...
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
"One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause.
"The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.
"The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population.
"Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.
"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios."
"That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said.
"As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."
IF 214 MILLION people are infected, you KNOW they are not even all going to know they are ill, let alone even be ill enough to visit a dr. C'mon this not the Bubonic Plague, yet here we are crashing our economy over it.