Conventions Typically Result in Five-Point Bounce

[KMAN]

Conventions Typically Result in Five-Point Bounce

 

[rayboyusmc]

I am beginning to believe that the pollsters aren't polling the right people anymore. They are using demographics from the past that don't accurately reflect the present or the future.

Who knows.

 

[editec]

Generally I believe polls to be a fairly accurate picture of the moment.

The moment changes and then what have you?

Outdated data.

As we get closer and closer to election day their significance will become increasingly more important.

But this far out?

Well, they tell us something, but not anything signficant.

 

[Caligirl]

I have been surprised to see the democrats not benefitting in the polls from the convention so far.

I am curious to see what happens Friday when McCain announces his VP pick.

 

[Jon]

Well, they tell us something, but not anything signficant.

They tell us trends, which at this point is more important than actual results.

Right now the trend is that Obama is losing steam, fast.

And, as the thread title states, he should get a five-point bounce, which so far has not surfaced.

 

[editec]

They tell us trends, which at this point is more important than actual results.

Yeah, I think that's correct.

Right now the trend is that Obama is losing steam, fast.

Bound to happen.

And, as the thread title states, he should get a five-point bounce, which so far has not surfaced.

No?

Oh well.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

Don't worry the Democrats already have their excuses ready. They will have been cheated if they lose AND it will be because white Americans are all racist and voted for McCain. Never mind that both can not be true.

 

[rayboyusmc]

Right now the trend is that Obama is losing steam, fast.

Not really, that may be your fantasy, but it isn't fact.

Do you know that you don't have a trend in data until at least 6 points have been moving up or down consecuatively? One raise in the polls does not make a trend.

This will be just like the big Clinton win. McCain won't and we will get our country back.

 

[Jon]

Do you know that you don't have a trend in data until at least 6 points have been moving up or down consecuatively? One raise in the polls does not make a trend.

As a person who studies data on a daily basis, I know that you're full of shit.

 

[glockmail]

The projection now is that Obama will enjoy a "bounce" of 1 point. Does that mean that he actually lost 5?

 

[CharlestonChad]

I am beginning to believe that the pollsters aren't polling the right people anymore. They are using demographics from the past that don't accurately reflect the present or the future.

Who knows.

Don't pollsters just poll LAN lines? The only people I know with LAN lines are elders and middle age people. Even then, caller ID lets people ignore the pollster, so essentially most people polled are using outdated LAN line phones. AKA, older people.

 

[Jon]

Don't you mean land lines?

 

[CharlestonChad]

Don't worry the Democrats already have their excuses ready. They will have been cheated if they lose AND it will be because white Americans are all racist and voted for McCain. Never mind that both can not be true.

Republican excuses for losing: Liberal Media, White Guilt, Young People, Liberal Media.

 

[CharlestonChad]

Don't you mean land lines?

yes, land lines.

Am I correct? Do they only poll land lines?

 

[Jon]

yes, land lines.

Am I correct? Do they only poll land lines?

I don't think so. I've been polled on my cell phone before. I think it depends on what number you give out the most. If you give out your cell phone and no land linde, they're going to call it. If you do give a land line, they'll use it.

 

[Caligirl]

Conventions Typically Result in Five-Point Bounce

My world makes sense again, there is a six point bounce.

I know, I know, it doesn't mean much, but at least it is what some of us expected.

Gallup Poll Gives Obama Convention ‘Bounce’ - America’s Election HQ

 

[sealybobo]

I am beginning to believe that the pollsters aren't polling the right people anymore. They are using demographics from the past that don't accurately reflect the present or the future.

Who knows.

If you look at what used to be pin point accurate exit polls, gore won florida. No doubt they fudge these findings.

I can't imagine what Mccain will do or say that will give him a five point jump. We know they will use offshore, gays and guns to divide us.

And if obama is ahead now, I don't see the gop bullshitting their way out of this one.

oh, did you hear n. korea is developing nukes again? can't confirm that though.

no ones biting on the russia story. even russia said the gop is making a matter out of this for politics. mccain has been paid off by foreign agents/lobyists.

 

[JimH52]

If McCain picks Romney as VP, it will be interesting. Will it hurt him to have a LDS on the ticket?

I still have the gut feeling that Obama is going to win in a blowout. The entire nation is ready to get rid of bush. They certainly don't want 4 more years of McBush.

 

[JimH52]

The youth vote will decide the election. They turn out, Obama wins. They don't turn out, McCain wins.

History dictates they don't show up. But the last candidate that has created such excitement as Obama has was John Kennedy, IMHO.

I predict that if McCain is elected, he will revert to his moderate stance and he will thumb his nose at the ulta-right.

 

[Jon]

I predict that if McCain is elected, he will revert to his moderate stance and he will thumb his nose at the ulta-right.

Isn't this in contrast to the post you made right before it?

But yes, I agree. I think McCain is still a moderate at heart, which is why I support him.