Clinton Leads Trump In Ohio--Statistically Tied (Poll Funnies!)

[mascale]

Real Clear Politics is more well-known. It reports an average of several polls. That average gets reported. In Ohio, Clinton barely leads, but that is an average of several polls.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton

One thing notable about the RCP averages is that they include a poll, which is not a poll. LA Times/USC created a panel, based on likely and unlikely voters. Unlikely voters from previous elections were heavily white, male, and with no college education. A lot were in the panel. So the panel tends to under-represent likely usual voters--mainstream Democrats and Republicans. It tends to over represent the formerly unlikely voters, who are now more likely polled as the Trump voters. Those kinds of voters are now over-represented in the poll. The panel now shows Trump leading nationally by Five basis points.

Is that a fiction, or what? While the panel has been showing Trump with giant leads, the panel is also shown to actually think that Trump will not win. RCP does not report that daily showing. Maybe 40% think Trump will win. Maybe 60% think Clinton will win. That is on any given day. Only one a portion of the panel gets "polled" on any given day. So it is not a representative poll, and by any usual standard. It does show support for Trump from all of the reporting of last weekend--depending on who was in the poll, during the last few days(?). In the next few days, if that diminishes--Then Clinton is back on track, even including among Trump supporters.

So RCP puts the pro-Trump panel in the national "polls," even though it is not. According to LA Times/USC, and no one else. Trump is the winner by a landslide--except that no one on the panel seems to think so(?). You can't do better than that(?)! Mostly the panel thinks that Clinton will win.

Poll Funnies! You would almost wonder if LA Times/USC is advising the Trump Campaign on how to create all the lies, slips, and falsehoods.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Slips and Falsies now seem to be the defining characteristic: Of any real Fuhrer-Leader, in our world(?)!)

 

[yiostheoy]

In the past week Hillary's lead seems to have shrunk somewhat. She is still leading overall and also in the swing states, but by slightly less than before according to the various polls.

Lying about the flu which turned into viral pneumonia and then almost dropping and flopping has not helped her credibility nor her popularity.

Both of these candidates, Hillary and Trump, and bold faced liars. They lie about absolutely everything.

It is almost as if lying like Romney is now here to stay in politics, even when the truth is glaringly obvious.

 

[Fenton Lum]

None of this bullshit matters at all come November. But hey, ay least it provides cover for a society that refuses too look to closely at itself or its political process, institutions, and societal outcomes.

 

[owebo]

Real Clear Politics is more well-known. It reports an average of several polls. That average gets reported. In Ohio, Clinton barely leads, but that is an average of several polls.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton

One thing notable about the RCP averages is that they include a poll, which is not a poll. LA Times/USC created a panel, based on likely and unlikely voters. Unlikely voters from previous elections were heavily white, male, and with no college education. A lot were in the panel. So the panel tends to under-represent likely usual voters--mainstream Democrats and Republicans. It tends to over represent the formerly unlikely voters, who are now more likely polled as the Trump voters. Those kinds of voters are now over-represented in the poll. The panel now shows Trump leading nationally by Five basis points.

Is that a fiction, or what? While the panel has been showing Trump with giant leads, the panel is also shown to actually think that Trump will not win. RCP does not report that daily showing. Maybe 40% think Trump will win. Maybe 60% think Clinton will win. That is on any given day. Only one a portion of the panel gets "polled" on any given day. So it is not a representative poll, and by any usual standard. It does show support for Trump from all of the reporting of last weekend--depending on who was in the poll, during the last few days(?). In the next few days, if that diminishes--Then Clinton is back on track, even including among Trump supporters.

So RCP puts the pro-Trump panel in the national "polls," even though it is not. According to LA Times/USC, and no one else. Trump is the winner by a landslide--except that no one on the panel seems to think so(?). You can't do better than that(?)! Mostly the panel thinks that Clinton will win.

Poll Funnies! You would almost wonder if LA Times/USC is advising the Trump Campaign on how to create all the lies, slips, and falsehoods.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Slips and Falsies now seem to be the defining characteristic: Of any real Fuhrer-Leader, in our world(?)!)

Your fear, it's refreshing....

 

[mascale]

The new reality is that adding apples to oranges at least creates a really fruity outcome!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(William Tell Child Endangerment Chapter, of NRA, on-board with AK-47!)

 

[S.J.]

Averaging in the older polls is a little deceptive, don't you think, since the trend is definitely in Trump's favor?
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Latest Polls

 

[The Irish Ram]

Trump is up by 5 in Ohio, leading in Fla.

 

[Siete]

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House


electoral and battle ground states


Trump is fucked.


DATE STATE PREVIOUS STATUS NEW STATUS RCP ELECTORAL COUNT RCP NATIONAL AVG.
9/12 Michigan Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up Clinton 209 - Trump 154 Clinton +2.8
9/12 Utah Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump Clinton 209 - Trump 154 Clinton +2.8
9/11 New Hampshire Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up Clinton 225 - Trump 154 Clinton +3.1
9/7 Connecticut Leans Clinton »»» Likely Clinton Clinton 229 - Trump 154 Clinton +3.1
9/7 Rhode Island Safe Clinton »»» Likely Clinton Clinton 229 - Trump 154 Clinton +3.1
9/3 Virginia Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up Clinton 229 - Trump 154 Clinton +3.9
9/2 Pennsylvania Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up Clinton 242 - Trump 154 Clinton +4.1
8/31 Wisconsin Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up Clinton 262 - Trump 154 Clinton +4.6
8/17 Michigan Toss Up »»» Leans Clinton Clinton 272 - Trump 154 Clinton +6.0
8/17 Mississippi Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump Clinton 272 - Trump 154 Clinton +6.0

 

[NYcarbineer]

Real Clear Politics is more well-known. It reports an average of several polls. That average gets reported. In Ohio, Clinton barely leads, but that is an average of several polls.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton

One thing notable about the RCP averages is that they include a poll, which is not a poll. LA Times/USC created a panel, based on likely and unlikely voters. Unlikely voters from previous elections were heavily white, male, and with no college education. A lot were in the panel. So the panel tends to under-represent likely usual voters--mainstream Democrats and Republicans. It tends to over represent the formerly unlikely voters, who are now more likely polled as the Trump voters. Those kinds of voters are now over-represented in the poll. The panel now shows Trump leading nationally by Five basis points.

Is that a fiction, or what? While the panel has been showing Trump with giant leads, the panel is also shown to actually think that Trump will not win. RCP does not report that daily showing. Maybe 40% think Trump will win. Maybe 60% think Clinton will win. That is on any given day. Only one a portion of the panel gets "polled" on any given day. So it is not a representative poll, and by any usual standard. It does show support for Trump from all of the reporting of last weekend--depending on who was in the poll, during the last few days(?). In the next few days, if that diminishes--Then Clinton is back on track, even including among Trump supporters.

So RCP puts the pro-Trump panel in the national "polls," even though it is not. According to LA Times/USC, and no one else. Trump is the winner by a landslide--except that no one on the panel seems to think so(?). You can't do better than that(?)! Mostly the panel thinks that Clinton will win.

Poll Funnies! You would almost wonder if LA Times/USC is advising the Trump Campaign on how to create all the lies, slips, and falsehoods.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Slips and Falsies now seem to be the defining characteristic: Of any real Fuhrer-Leader, in our world(?)!)

That LA Times poll pointed out somewhere in their stuff that the who do you think will win poll is a better predictor than the polls themselves, this far out.

 

[mascale]

Accountants need consistency in their reporting. The averaging also happens within the states. If there is a particular break-out area, then that can be spotted. In Ohio, the two most recent polls are days apart. Eliminating the oldest one would show the Ohio trend pro-Clinton.

Again, LA Times/USC more likely shows a Trump "base" surge, peaking way too soon. Getting past that may as likely create a "rigged as usual" belief, and so they do not
vote, just like before.

"Crow James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!
(Dimpled Chads--Not a Pretty Sight!)

 

[NYcarbineer]

Averaging in the older polls is a little deceptive, don't you think, since the trend is definitely in Trump's favor?
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Latest Polls

This is third time the 'trend has been in Trump's favor so far this year.

 

[Siete]

Clinton leads Trump, the Republican nominee, by 8 points in Pennsylvania, 45 percent to 37 percent, in the CBS News Battleground Tracker poll.

In North Carolina, she leads him by 4 points, 46 percent to 42 percent.

 

[mascale]

LA Time/USC did report that the "Who do you think will win" may be the better indicator, true enough. That is not what they report out, however, in their reports.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(What better indicator of the Trump campaign can there possibly be: If not a poll that flip-flops on itself(?)!)

 

[S.J.]

Spin, spin, spin, libs. Trump has the edge at this point. Doesn't mean he'll keep it but don't be so disingenuous.

 

[mascale]

Trump has no edge at this point, but anyone should wonder if the see-saw, ebb & flow, may work against the Trump base. LA Times/USC even noted that just possibly Trump is working against himself with the constant assertions of a "Rigged Election." Stay-at-home-as-usual" is what many in the Trump base, may have heard!

LA Times/USC poll is useful for that--and it is at famously named, "Jesse Unruh" something, at USC. Unruh had been the actual governor of California for years and years, and a part of the Brown-Unruh-Cranston bunch who ran the place. Cranston was a founder of California Democratic Council. "Money is the Mother's Milk of Politics," is Jesse Unruh politics.

So LA Times/USC has unwittingly been showing a usually disregarded group--Blue Collar males who don't vote, or maybe once were Democrats, and got snuffed by the Republicans. Those would be Jesse Unruh's people--when they were Democrats.

The problem is that they may have started trending too early, and mostly for reasons that won't become mainstream election policy preferences. "Deplorables" started out as a Clinton glitch. Chicago Tribune is likely the among the first to notice that it was deliberate, previously tested, and finally: "Spot Right On!"

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(NFL maybe take Wounded Knee about AK-47! Even my own Indian Name is, "Running Live Target Practice," when anywhere near any kind of place of worship!)

 

[S.J.]

If the trend isn't in Trump's favor, what happened to that 10 point lead of Hillary's?

 

[mascale]

The Clinton plurality is not a Trump trend. More likely it is Clinton fund-raising and creating a national organization, with Trump staring at a hand-held device, making twitter feeds and texting--any maybe trying to drive and follow a GPS at the same time.

In California, again--back to Jesse Unruh. The Trump "Trend" is from "28% For," in a June Field Poll, all the way to "32% For," in some other poll, maybe even recently. The Clintons do come to California a lot. California Democrats know how to appeal to the likely Trump base. We would call the Trump Trend, likely so far, "The Surge!"

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - California: Trump vs. Clinton

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Even Russian Hackers now a U. S. National past-time!")

 

[blackhawk]

Same old bullshit people from both sides cherry picking the polls that favor their candidate very old very boring.

 

[mascale]

Blackhawk poster, maybe sounding like a possible Trump voter! "Very Old, Very Boring, Why Bother, I Have Better Things To Do Than Stand In Some Line To Poke Little Holes Into An IBM Card!"

Very Old, Very Boring--and to those Trump, likely, in the LA Times;/USC poll.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Same Old Same Old: Like Hunting For Next Meal, Why Bother(?)!)

 

[Meathead]

Polls are only good for showing trends. The election is tightening. The only poll that really matters are the exit polls in early November.