Climate models go cold

[OohPooPahDoo]

All of the assertions made by Old Rocks are based on spectacular climate "models"....................

Ummmmmmmmmm...........................


Heres a model!!! Look familiar?

How bullseye huh??!!!!!!! And thats just looking 24 hours out...............

Modern hurricane modeling has saved countless lives ignoramous.

 

[skookerasbil]

All of the assertions made by Old Rocks are based on spectacular climate "models"....................

Ummmmmmmmmm...........................


Heres a model!!! Look familiar?

How bullseye huh??!!!!!!! And thats just looking 24 hours out...............

Modern hurricane modeling has saved countless lives ignoramous.

HOLY

MOTHER

OF

GOD


Can you get more naive?


This is PROOF POSITIVE that far left people have zero ability to think on the margin.

It doesnt matter to the k00k lefty that computer models frequently go far off course and multitudes of people are killed SOMEWHERE ELSE!!!!!


THE WORKINGS OF THE MIND OF A FAR LEFTY = FCUKKING FASCINATING!!!


Mind you...........Im not submitting that far left guys arent smart. Many are often far smarter than me. But they have a numbed area of the brain that doesnt allow them to be able to think on the margin.......or understand necessary tradeoffs in life. Everything in life is a zero sum game to them which is fcukking incredibly compelling!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

All of the assertions made by Old Rocks are based on spectacular climate "models"....................

Ummmmmmmmmm...........................


Heres a model!!! Look familiar?

How bullseye huh??!!!!!!! And thats just looking 24 hours out...............

Modern hurricane modeling has saved countless lives ignoramous.

HOLY

MOTHER

OF

GOD


Can you get more naive?


This is PROOF POSITIVE that far left people have zero ability to think on the margin.

It doesnt matter to the k00k lefty that computer models frequently go far off course and multitudes of people are killed SOMEWHERE ELSE!!!!!


THE WORKINGS OF THE MIND OF A FAR LEFTY = FCUKKING FASCINATING!!!

You should calm down. Do you live in a hurricane zone? We rely on those models to tell us where the thing is going to hit. They aren't very accurate when the storm is far away but as the storm approaches their accuracy increases. They help us figure out who needs to evacuate and where they should evacuate to. Perhaps you could take a moment out of your day to not be such a moron.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season had above normal activity, with 404 official
forecasts issued. The NHC official track forecast errors in the Atlantic basin were similar
to the previous 5-yr means from 12-36 h, but up to 26% smaller beyond 36 h, and set a
record for accuracy at 120 h. On average, the skill of the official forecasts was very close
to that of the TCON/TVCN consensus models, as well as to the best performing of the
dynamical models. The EMXI and GFSI exhibited the highest skill, and the EGRI
performed well at longer forecast times. The NGPI and GFNI were the poorer
performing major dynamical models. Among the consensus models, FSSE (a corrected
consensus model) performed the best overall for the second year in a row. The corrected
versions of TCON, TVCN, and GUNA, however, did not perform as well as their parent
models. The Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA) track goal was
met.
Official

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2010.pdf

 

[skookerasbil]

"Spaghetti" hurricane models. ( check it out s0n!!)

Happens with EVERY storm................


But Im the moron!!!!




Computer models are gay........a technological dart board!!!

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

"Spaghetti" hurricane models. ( check it out s0n!!)

Happens with EVERY storm................


But Im the moron!!!!




Computer models are gay........a technological dart board!!!

You don't even know what you're talking about, nor are you interested in knowing what you're talking about. Not only are you an ignorant moron satisfied with his own ignorance, you actually think your ignorance qualifies you as an expert.

 

[peach174]

"Spaghetti" hurricane models. ( check it out s0n!!)

Happens with EVERY storm................


But Im the moron!!!!




Computer models are gay........a technological dart board!!!

You don't even know what you're talking about, nor are you interested in knowing what you're talking about. Not only are you an ignorant moron satisfied with his own ignorance, you actually think your ignorance qualifies you as an expert.

Do you have a degree in science?

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

"Spaghetti" hurricane models. ( check it out s0n!!)

Happens with EVERY storm................


But Im the moron!!!!




Computer models are gay........a technological dart board!!!

You don't even know what you're talking about, nor are you interested in knowing what you're talking about. Not only are you an ignorant moron satisfied with his own ignorance, you actually think your ignorance qualifies you as an expert.

Do you have a degree in science?

Physics. Why?

 

[peach174]

You don't even know what you're talking about, nor are you interested in knowing what you're talking about. Not only are you an ignorant moron satisfied with his own ignorance, you actually think your ignorance qualifies you as an expert.

Do you have a degree in science?

Physics. Why?

OK fine I just wanted to know.
Sorry if I was being nosey, I was just curious.

 

[westwall]

You don't even know what you're talking about, nor are you interested in knowing what you're talking about. Not only are you an ignorant moron satisfied with his own ignorance, you actually think your ignorance qualifies you as an expert.

Do you have a degree in science?

Physics. Why?

Which specialty?

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

Do you have a degree in science?

Physics. Why?

Which specialty?

computational fluid dynamics and astrophysical fluids

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Modern hurricane modeling has saved countless lives ignoramous.

HOLY

MOTHER

OF

GOD


Can you get more naive?


This is PROOF POSITIVE that far left people have zero ability to think on the margin.

It doesnt matter to the k00k lefty that computer models frequently go far off course and multitudes of people are killed SOMEWHERE ELSE!!!!!


THE WORKINGS OF THE MIND OF A FAR LEFTY = FCUKKING FASCINATING!!!

You should calm down. Do you live in a hurricane zone? We rely on those models to tell us where the thing is going to hit. They aren't very accurate when the storm is far away but as the storm approaches their accuracy increases. They help us figure out who needs to evacuate and where they should evacuate to. Perhaps you could take a moment out of your day to not be such a moron.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season had above normal activity, with 404 official
forecasts issued. The NHC official track forecast errors in the Atlantic basin were similar
to the previous 5-yr means from 12-36 h, but up to 26% smaller beyond 36 h, and set a
record for accuracy at 120 h. On average, the skill of the official forecasts was very close
to that of the TCON/TVCN consensus models, as well as to the best performing of the
dynamical models. The EMXI and GFSI exhibited the highest skill, and the EGRI
performed well at longer forecast times. The NGPI and GFNI were the poorer
performing major dynamical models. Among the consensus models, FSSE (a corrected
consensus model) performed the best overall for the second year in a row. The corrected
versions of TCON, TVCN, and GUNA, however, did not perform as well as their parent
models. The Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA) track goal was
met.
Official

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2010.pdf

Do you know why the models get more accurate the closer the storm gets to you? Could it be because there is less margin for error in predicting the path of a storm when it is 5 minutes away than when it is 5 hours away?

 

[boedicca]

Today where my parents live in the SF East Bay, temps are 25 degrees below the seasonal average.

Damn, this global warming is HELL!

 

[westwall]

Today where my parents live in the SF East Bay, temps are 25 degrees below the seasonal average.

Damn, this global warming is HELL!

I agree! Two days of snow over the weekend and the AMGEN bike race had to be cancelled on Saturday! They left from Squaw Valley yesterday...


Statement Regarding Weather for Stage 1 of the 2011 Amgen Tour of California | Amgen Tour of California

 

[Old Rocks]

Seventh warmest April on record, in spite of the strongest La Nina in forty years.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/images/map-blended-mntp-201104.png

 

[ScienceRocks]

Seventh warmest April on record, in spite of the strongest La Nina in forty years.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/images/map-blended-mntp-201104.png

Giss was 5th. But we in Portland Oregon are very cold and rainy. I hope the pattern fllips soon for a warmer later summer for us.

 

[Old Rocks]

Yeah, that would be nice. Home, Eastern Oregon, is getting a bit too much of needed moisture right now.

 

[westwall]

Yeah, that would be nice. Home, Eastern Oregon, is getting a bit too much of needed moisture right now.

Uhhhh, if it's "needed" it is not too much. It may be coming down too fast, but it is never to much iff needed.

 

[westwall]

Seventh warmest April on record, in spite of the strongest La Nina in forty years.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/images/map-blended-mntp-201104.png

Yep look at all those weather stations located on airports. Real accurate there, real accurate We got more snow today.

 

[Old Rocks]

Of course, parking them damned satellites in airports is the normal thing to do, right, ol' Walleyes? Sheesh, the satellite records and the ground stations all say the same thing. April was the fifth to seventh warmest April on record.

No need to lie about it, old boy, just to easy to check.

 

[Old Rocks]

Yeah, that would be nice. Home, Eastern Oregon, is getting a bit too much of needed moisture right now.

Uhhhh, if it's "needed" it is not too much. It may be coming down too fast, but it is never to much iff needed.

Strange thing for someone claiming to be a geologist to say. Rapid runoff doesn't do much for depleted aquifers. Perhaps you never studied any hydrology?