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Climate Model Problems Persist, Changes Reduce Accuracy Further
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In the past week, two more articles have been added to the growing body of literature discussing the fact that climate models have consistently failed to project the Earth’s temperatures and temperature trends accurately, since their inception.
As if that were not bad enough, The Wall Street Journal and Powerline report climate models’ projections of future temperatures have gotten worse over time. As new generations of supposedly improved climate models are produced and refined, the accuracy of their temperature simulations decreases. Each new generation of general circulation models fails to track or correspond to a greater degree with measured temperature changes and trends than the previous generation.
This makes a joke of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) claims that climate models have improved, which in normal discourse would mean they’ve become more accurate.
Every time the IPCC issues a new report, from the first (CAR1) issued in 1990 through its Sixth and most recent Assessment report (CAR6) released in August 2021, it claims the newest generation of models it uses is more accurate than the prior generation. The “Summary for Policy-Makers” for CAR3 stated, “Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased.” Yet, instead of narrowing the range of future possible temperatures from the previous report, the range nearly doubled. That’s like doubling the size of the bulls-eye on a target, barely hitting the outside edge of the larger bullseye, and claiming it’s a sign the shooter’s accuracy has increased.
The IPCC’s CAR6 reports states,
“These models include new and better representation of physical, chemical and biological processes, as well as higher resolution, compared to climate models considered in previous IPCC assessment reports. This has improved the simulation of the recent mean state of most large-scale indicators of climate change and many other aspects across the climate system.”
How can their simulations be “improved” when, as I discussed in Climate Change Weekly 407, the modelers themselves were forced to admit, just weeks before CAR6 was released, that the models were projecting even hotter temperatures and steeper temperature trends than the previous iteration, the simulated temperatures of which were already too hot, failing to represent measured temperatures accurately?
Only a government bureaucracy or a con artist could claim with a straight face a technology has improved when it does not perform its required task as well as poor-performing previous versions. It’s like confidently asserting a class of electric vehicles is improving based on laboratory modelling even as the miles they can travel between recharges is declining and the amount of time it takes to recharge them is getting longer. Worse performance is not better, unless the goal is to fail.
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After reading your bank account might be seized for the greater collective good
Snip
In the past week, two more articles have been added to the growing body of literature discussing the fact that climate models have consistently failed to project the Earth’s temperatures and temperature trends accurately, since their inception.
As if that were not bad enough, The Wall Street Journal and Powerline report climate models’ projections of future temperatures have gotten worse over time. As new generations of supposedly improved climate models are produced and refined, the accuracy of their temperature simulations decreases. Each new generation of general circulation models fails to track or correspond to a greater degree with measured temperature changes and trends than the previous generation.
This makes a joke of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) claims that climate models have improved, which in normal discourse would mean they’ve become more accurate.
Every time the IPCC issues a new report, from the first (CAR1) issued in 1990 through its Sixth and most recent Assessment report (CAR6) released in August 2021, it claims the newest generation of models it uses is more accurate than the prior generation. The “Summary for Policy-Makers” for CAR3 stated, “Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased.” Yet, instead of narrowing the range of future possible temperatures from the previous report, the range nearly doubled. That’s like doubling the size of the bulls-eye on a target, barely hitting the outside edge of the larger bullseye, and claiming it’s a sign the shooter’s accuracy has increased.
The IPCC’s CAR6 reports states,
“These models include new and better representation of physical, chemical and biological processes, as well as higher resolution, compared to climate models considered in previous IPCC assessment reports. This has improved the simulation of the recent mean state of most large-scale indicators of climate change and many other aspects across the climate system.”
How can their simulations be “improved” when, as I discussed in Climate Change Weekly 407, the modelers themselves were forced to admit, just weeks before CAR6 was released, that the models were projecting even hotter temperatures and steeper temperature trends than the previous iteration, the simulated temperatures of which were already too hot, failing to represent measured temperatures accurately?
Only a government bureaucracy or a con artist could claim with a straight face a technology has improved when it does not perform its required task as well as poor-performing previous versions. It’s like confidently asserting a class of electric vehicles is improving based on laboratory modelling even as the miles they can travel between recharges is declining and the amount of time it takes to recharge them is getting longer. Worse performance is not better, unless the goal is to fail.
Keep reading
Climate Change Weekly #425: Climate Model Problems Persist, Changes Reduce Accuracy Further Climate Change Weekly #425: Climate Model Problems Persist, Changes Reduce Accuracy Further
In the past week, two more articles have been added to the growing body of literature discussing climate models having failed.
heartlanddailynews.com
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IPCC AR6 SPM Credibility Destroyed by “Disappearing” Medieval Warming Period. • Watts Up With That?
The Climate Intelligence Foundation (CLINTEL) has cataloged significant errors in the UN IPCC AR6 Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) and distributed this error listing and analysis to the IPCC Chair and other world leaders to inform them of these errors.
wattsupwiththat.com
After reading your bank account might be seized for the greater collective good
