China Int'l

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Henry K on China...
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The China Challenge
MAY 14, 2011 - Societies and nations tend to think of themselves as eternal. They also cherish a tale of their origin. A special feature of Chinese civilization is that it seems to have no beginning. It appears in history less as a conventional nation-state than as a permanent natural phenomenon. In the tale of the Yellow Emperor, revered by many Chinese as the legendary founding ruler, China seems already to exist.
The Yellow Emperor has gone down in history as a founding hero; yet in the founding myth, he is re-establishing, not creating, an empire. China predated him; it strides into the historical consciousness as an established state requiring only restoration, not creation. In general, Chinese statesmanship exhibits a tendency to view the entire strategic landscape as part of a single whole: good and evil, near and far, strength and weakness, past and future all interrelated. In contrast to the Western approach of treating history as a process of modernity achieving a series of absolute victories over evil and backwardness, the traditional Chinese view of history emphasized a cyclical process of decay and rectification, in which nature and the world could be understood but not completely mastered.

For China's classical sages, the world could never be conquered; wise rulers could hope only to harmonize with its trends. There was no New World to populate, no redemption awaiting mankind on distant shores. The promised land was China, and the Chinese were already there. The blessings of the Middle Kingdom's culture might theoretically be extended, by China's superior example, to the foreigners on the empire's periphery. But there was no glory to be found in venturing across the seas to convert "heathens" to Chinese ways; the customs of the Celestial Dynasty were plainly beyond the attainment of the far barbarians.

The most dramatic event of the Nixon presidency occurred in near obscurity. Nixon had decided that for a diplomatic mission to Beijing to succeed, it would have to take place in secrecy. A public mission would have set off a complicated internal clearance project within the U.S. government and insistent demands for consultations from around the world, including Taiwan (still recognized as the government of China). This would have mortgaged our prospects with Beijing, whose attitudes we were being sent to discover. Transparency is an essential objective, but historic opportunities for building a more peaceful international order have imperatives as well.

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Kissinger critics see red on China
May 16, 2011 - NEARING his 88th birthday, Henry Kissinger, the former US secretary of state, is still courting controversy.
His latest book, On China, has united critics from Left and Right over what one described as his "chillingly cavalier" dismissal of human rights violations by Beijing. Almost 40 years after Mr Kissinger first went to China as a secret envoy for president Richard Nixon, his account of Sino-American relations, due to be published tomorrow, has inadvertently laid bare the tensions between the two superpowers. While most reviewers have paid tribute to Mr Kissinger's knowledge and applauded his shrewd assessments of modern Chinese ambition, his book has struck a sour note with its breezy dismissal of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre and other assaults on democracy.

In advance reviews, both The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal complained that Mr Kissinger had glossed over rights abuses and ignored crackdowns on dissidents. "It is a book that promotes Mr Kissinger's own brand of realpolitik thinking," a review in the NYT declared. Mr Kissinger, winner of the 1973 Nobel Peace Prize, "soft-pedals the human costs of Mao Tse-tung's ruthless decades-long reign" and "questions the consequences" of more recent US efforts to raise human rights issues.

The WSJ found it "troubling" his account of the Tiananmen massacre "shades into an apology for the regime . . . he hardly seems to consider the possibility that the dreams of 1989 aren't yet extinguished". The paper suggested that "lurking beneath Mr Kissinger's musings . . . is a not-so-subtle subtext. This volume is a sly attempt by a controversial figure to burnish his legacy." As the chief architect of the US's historic opening to Communist China, Mr Kissinger has long enjoyed an intimate relationship with senior Chinese leaders. His consultancy firm, Kissinger Associates, represents numerous international corporations seeking to do business with Beijing.

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Granny says she wouldn't put it past dem Chinamens to pounce on us from outer space...
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US expert warns of PRC economic trap
Sat, May 14, 2011 - STAR WARS:Barry Watts warned that the weaponization of space is under way, and while China’s capabilities are limited now, ‘a space Pearl Harbor’ is possible in future
A US military expert said China may be trying to take over Taiwan by using a strategy of “economic entanglement.” Barry Watts, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, told a US congressional commission this week: “Why use military force if economic entanglement leading to economic capture is succeeding?” In testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Watts said that the most common scenarios for a conflict between the US and China were built around a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan.

“The first point to be made about the likelihood of such an attempt is that China has been fairly successful in pursuing the economic entanglement of Taiwan,” he said. Watts, who was testifying on China’s military space program, said that he had discussed the possibility of a Chinese attack on Taiwan with senior Taiwanese national security officials in Taipei. “What struck me during that trip was the growing migration of Taiwan’s advanced technologies and businesses to mainland China, lured by such incentives as lower labor costs,” Watts said.

“Since then, the indications are that the gradual economic entanglement of Taiwan has continued, and that it is leading — in the long run — to Taiwan’s eventual economic capture by the People’s Republic of China [PRC],” he said. “If this assessment is correct, then the chances of the PRC initiating a military takeover of Taiwan in 2012 or even 2020 appear to be quite low. Note, too, that this approach embodies Sun Tzu’s (孫子) dictum that the acme of strategy is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

Since China is a rising power whose conventional military forces remain substantially inferior to those of the US, Watts said, it was imperative for China to avoid a direct military conflict with the US “for the time being.” “What role might China’s space capabilities play should such a conflict occur nonetheless?” he asked. Watts — former head of the Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation at the Department of Defense — quoted one study by the Commission on US National Security in Space that warned that unless steps were taken to reduce the vulnerability of the US’ space systems, the country would face the real possibility of a “space Pearl Harbor.”

However, he said that after the PRC’s successful anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) test in January 2007, it was concluded that even with months of planning, the best China could do against US space capabilities would be to attack nine Low Earth Orbit satellites. The short-term consequences of such an attack would be “limited,” and even under a worst-case scenario, a Chinese all-out ASAT attack would “only reduce” the US’ use of precision-guided weapons and satellite communications. Watts said that it was not possible to forecast whether the balance might shift more in China’s favor beyond 2020, but that the “weaponization of space” was already under way.

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China’s power woes worsen as rivers run dry due to drought
Wed, May 18, 2011 - Much of central China is enduring its worst energy crisis in years, with factories and residents facing power cuts as supply runs short of demand — a problem worsening as drought dries rivers, reducing hydroelectric capacity.
Authorities are warning that manufacturers in booming industrial regions west of Shanghai may face even tighter power rationing as demand surges in the peak summer months as electricity generators curb output because of rising costs for coal and oil. Though summer rains may eventually relieve the drought, with even the powerful Yangtze River running too low for shipping in some stretches, China appears to be hitting limits to its growth in a resource scarce-environment. The power crunch comes at a time when worries over inflation make rising energy costs and crop failures less welcome than ever.

The industry group China Electricity Council has estimated a power shortfall of 30 million kilowatts in the summer. That is only 3 percent of China’s generating capacity, but the shortages are concentrated in key manufacturing regions such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu, near Shanghai. According to industry reports, petrochemical and plastics manufacturers and smaller factories are among those most affected.

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A boat lies stranded on the cracked bed of a dried area of Xieshan, which is part of Poyang Lake in China’s Jiangxi Province on May 4. Officials said an extended low-flow period might pose a threat to navigation in parts of the Yangtze River.

Fast-growing China has long experienced periodic power shortages, especially in winter and summer when weather extremes boost demand for heating and cooling. However, the problems this year stem mainly from a failure of government-controlled electricity rates to keep pace with the costs paid by utilities for the coal that fuels about three-quarters of the country’s electricity generation. Power companies are reluctant to invest in new projects, while many older, heavily polluting thermal plants are being closed down to help meet environmental targets.

The amount of new installed capacity is due to drop 10 million kilowatts next year from this year, while demand continues to climb at double-digit rates, Hu Zhaoguang, vice president of State Grid Energy Research Institute, said in comments posted on the Energy Research Observation Net. The regional power distributor East China Grid Co estimates that power shortages could reach 19 million kilowatts this summer in Shanghai and four other nearby provinces, the newspaper China Daily reported yesterday. The worst will be a shortfall of more than 11 million kilowatts, or 16 percent of total demand, in Jiangsu Province, upriver from Shanghai along the Yangtze, where drought has sapped water levels to their lowest ever at some points, stalling shipping.

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Vietnam nervous about China...
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Hundreds protest in Vietnam against China amid South China Sea tension
Mon, Jun 06, 2011 - Up to 300 people shouting “Down with China” marched to the Chinese embassy in Vietnam yesterday to protest against what they see as Chinese violations of Vietnam’s sovereignty in the disputed South China Sea.
Tension between Vietnam and China has been on the rise since last month when Hanoi said Chinese patrol boats harassed a Vietnamese oil-exploration ship conducting a seismic survey 120km off Vietnam’s south-central coast. The two countries, which fought a brief but intense war on their land border in 1979, have exchanged accusations and re-staked long-standing claims of sovereignty over maritime territory that covers important shipping routes and is thought to hold large, untapped oil and gas reserves. Public protests are rare in Vietnam, but as well as the procession of banner-waving people in the capital, images posted online showed about 1,000 people marching in what appeared to be a similar protest in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s commercial hub.

There had been calls online and via text message for people in the southern city to demonstrate at the Chinese consulate. The demonstrators in Hanoi sang patriotic songs and chanted slogans including “The Paracels and Spratlys belong to Vietnam,” referring to two largely uninhabited archipelagos claimed by both countries. Two people carried a Chinese flag emblazoned with a pirate’s skull and crossbones. The protests were the first of their kind since December 2007 when widespread anger about China’s growing assertiveness over its claims to the Paracels and Spratlys drew hundreds of people out in Hanoi.

Maritime disputes are a sensitive topic for the Vietnamese government, which tries to strike a balance between appeasing a populace that is deeply suspicious of China and keeping relations with its giant neighbor from souring. Hanoi police watched the peaceful protest and after a while led the demonstrators away from a park in front of the Chinese embassy. The Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also claim territories in the South China Sea, but China’s claim is by far the largest, forming a vast U-shape over most of the sea’s 1.7 million square kilometers. The latest tension comes as defense ministers from around the region met in Singapore for an annual security dialogue.

Chinese Minister of National Defense Liang Guanglie told his Vietnamese counterpart Phung Quang Thanh at the conference on Saturday that their countries should resolve their disputes peacefully. Vietnam had said it would use its navy to enforce its territorial integrity. Speaking at the conference yesterday, Liang said that China has been working through ASEAN to negotiate sea disputes in the region. “China is committed to maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea,’’ he said. “At present, the general situation in the South China Sea remains stable.’’

Hundreds protest in Vietnam against China amid South China Sea tension - Taipei Times

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Why the South China Sea is turning more turbulent
June 3, 2011 : A US-China military rivalry may be behind China's recent aggressiveness in the South China Sea. On Sunday, Vietnam claims China cut the underwater cables of one of its survey ships.
Nearly a year after the US stepped into a simmering dispute between China and smaller countries in the region over potentially oil-rich islands in the South China Sea, tensions are rising again. Since March, both Vietnam and the Philippines have accused Chinese forces of aggressive acts in disputed areas. Military experts say China’s sustained military buildup enables it to project more naval power in an oceanic region where the US Navy has long held sway. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates was due to meet Friday with his Chinese counterpart at a security summit in Singapore. “We are not trying to hold China down,” he told reporters Thursday.

Prior to the recent tension, however, analysts say China had begun to dial down its behavior and renew diplomatic efforts to win over its neighbors. The Chinese charm offensive began soon after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton used a regional security forum in Vietnam last July to stake out the US strategic interest in the South China Sea and offer to mediate peace talks. While this offer hasn’t been taken up, the US intervention prompted Beijing to “recalibrate” its stance, says Susan Shirk, a former US diplomat and China expert who runs the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at the University of California in San Diego. As a rising military power, China wants to avoid a pro-US tilt in the region. “This recalibration is about trying to get back to a more pragmatic and cooperative approach that China has, by and large, pursued since the 1990s,” she says.

A regional flashpoint

But regional governments have made scant progress on resolving overlapping claims on two island chains. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) signed a broad code of conduct with China in 2002 as a way to calm tensions. But subsequent talks to agree on the rules have broken down amid criticism that ASEAN is too divided to act. Asian diplomats say China has tried to pick off weaker countries and head off a firm joint position on the South China Sea. Last year, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said “internationalizing” the issue would only make it harder to solve.

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