China Can't Win Trade War With USA

[ABikerSailor]

Screw China...their shit is nothing but cheep crap....why is it always a trade war when we fight back? They can steal our stuff tax our stuff limit our stuff tariff our stuff and no one says shit...but let us try and even the field and all liberal hell breaks loose....Screw China and any other nation that will not work with us....

Check out Wal Mart sometime and see how much of that Chinese "cheap crap" they are selling you.

 

[protectionist]

Check out Wal Mart sometime and see how much of that Chinese "cheap crap" they are selling you.

Sure, because our fool ex-presidents gave them unrestricted access to our market. That stops now,

 

[percysunshine]

Article 1 Section 8;

'The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States'

Constitution of the United States - Preamble, Articles & Summary - FindLaw


Congress is a bunch of wimps. They have the authority to over rule Trump. If they do not, vote your Congress critter out.

 

[Supposn]

Protectionist, I'm opposed to tariffs that are not applicable to all general imports or do not generally apply to all equally to all foreign nations. For nations' that otherwise experiences chronic annual trade deficits of goods, (particularly for such nations with higher median wage rates), Import Certificates are far superior to tariffs, or pure free trade, or any hybrids of the two trade policy concepts.
Tariffs upon basic materials rather than upon all goods or all finished goods are particularly net detrimental to their nation.
.
The policy described within Wikipedia's “Import Certificates” article would if adopted by the USA, significantly if not entirely eliminate USA's chronic annual trade deficits of goods in a manner that would more than otherwise increase our GDP and numbers of jobs.
.
Respectfully, Supposn

 

[protectionist]

Article 1 Section 8;

'The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States'

Constitution of the United States - Preamble, Articles & Summary - FindLaw


Congress is a bunch of wimps. They have the authority to over rule Trump. If they do not, vote your Congress critter out.

Why would you WANT them to overrule him ? Tariffs are necessary to equalize trade that has been unfair to the US. You want to give China unrestricted access to our valuable market, while they impose big tariffs on our goods going to them ? Why ?

This craziness has contributed to thousands of US businesses leaving the US, and millions of lost US jobs. In addition, the cheap crap they make overseas, is junk.

You should be happy that Trump is fixing the careless stupidity of the 4 presidents before him.

 

[protectionist]

Protectionist, I'm opposed to tariffs that are not applicable to all general imports or do not generally apply to all equally to all foreign nations. For nations' that otherwise experiences chronic annual trade deficits of goods, (particularly for such nations with higher median wage rates), Import Certificates are far superior to tariffs, or pure free trade, or any hybrids of the two trade policy concepts.
Tariffs upon basic materials rather than upon all goods or all finished goods are particularly net detrimental to their nation.
.
The policy described within Wikipedia's “Import Certificates” article would if adopted by the USA, significantly if not entirely eliminate USA's chronic annual trade deficits of goods in a manner that would more than otherwise increase our GDP and numbers of jobs.
.
Respectfully, Supposn

The Trump tariff policy is a work IN PROGRESS. So far, we have seen just the beginning of it. When we get through the middle stages of it, and the end parts, we then can render objective judgement.

Right now, it's early, and what we see now isn't the same as what we'll be seeing in future weeks and months. Even Trump himself said "This is just the beginning"

 

[ABikerSailor]

Protectionist, I'm opposed to tariffs that are not applicable to all general imports or do not generally apply to all equally to all foreign nations. For nations' that otherwise experiences chronic annual trade deficits of goods, (particularly for such nations with higher median wage rates), Import Certificates are far superior to tariffs, or pure free trade, or any hybrids of the two trade policy concepts.
Tariffs upon basic materials rather than upon all goods or all finished goods are particularly net detrimental to their nation.
.
The policy described within Wikipedia's “Import Certificates” article would if adopted by the USA, significantly if not entirely eliminate USA's chronic annual trade deficits of goods in a manner that would more than otherwise increase our GDP and numbers of jobs.
.
Respectfully, Supposn

The Trump tariff policy is a work IN PROGRESS. So far, we have seen just the beginning of it. When we get through the middle stages of it, and the end parts, we then can render objective judgement.

Right now, it's early, and what we see now isn't the same as what we'll be seeing in future weeks and months. Even Trump himself said "This is just the beginning"

If this is just the beginning, then Trump has figured out the crappiest way of launching his policy. Every time he has stated sanctions against China, the stock market has dropped significantly.

 

[Rambunctious]

Article 1 Section 8;

'The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States'

Constitution of the United States - Preamble, Articles & Summary - FindLaw


Congress is a bunch of wimps. They have the authority to over rule Trump. If they do not, vote your Congress critter out.

Over rule Trump for what? signing their bill?....

 

[protectionist]

If this is just the beginning, then Trump has figured out the crappiest way of launching his policy. Every time he has stated sanctions against China, the stock market has dropped significantly.

Anybody who worries about the movements of the stock market, has a problem.

"The only thing you have to fear, is fear itself." - FDR

 

[Care4all]

Despite claims to the contrary, we are in the initial stages of a trade war with China. But this is something that China simply can't win. In order to win a trade war, you have to either be even with the other country, or have a trade deficit with them. The one thing you can't have is a trade surplus.

If you have a trade surplus, you don't have any leverage to use tariffs against the other country. And the bigger the trade surplus, the less leverage (or trade war power) you have. In China's case, their surplus isn't big, it is gigantic.

China exports 6 times as much $tuff to the US, as vice versa. So this is like 2 people puttting up money for something. One puts up $10, the other $60. The $60 guy has a lot more to lose.
Making things worse for China, the threat of prices rising when US businesses leave China and return to America, has diminished almost entirely. There's a long list of economic reasons or that. Some of them I remember teaching to college kids 40 years ago. Other reasons have come about since that time, buy they're all piled up right now.

So why, in such a precarious position, does China go head to head with Trump on trade ? I think it's because they're (slimly) hoping that political pressures in the US will dissuade Trump from waging this war. But Trump has put a lot of political capital into the idea of restoring an equitable trade balance, thereby bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and making America great again. This is the cornerstone of his presidency. It's not on the table for negotiation with Democrats or anybody else.

Looking at this objectively, China can bluster, and bluff, but she doesn't have a prayer in this thing. China may register a few hits along the way, but Trump is pitching a shutout here, and I suspect the battle will be brief.

The USA needs china's stuff, China does not need ours....soybeans they can get from Brazil who has an excess.... we also borrowed a lot of the deficit spending from China....a small hike in interest rates could do us in.... and with Trump pulling out of the TPA, it gives China an advantage....to sell their manufacturing to all the others.....

so, I am not certain why you think the USA will win....the American citizen will hurt, with prices rising.....

UNTIL we can bring manufacturing back to the USA....which could take 5 to 10 years.....

let's just hope Trump has a rabbit up his sleeve somewhere!

 

[protectionist]

The USA needs china's stuff, China does not need ours....soybeans they can get from Brazil who has an excess.... we also borrowed a lot of the deficit spending from China....a small hike in interest rates could do us in.... and with Trump pulling out of the TPA, it gives China an advantage....to sell their manufacturing to all the others.....

so, I am not certain why you think the USA will win....the American citizen will hurt, with prices rising.....

UNTIL we can bring manufacturing back to the USA....which could take 5 to 10 years.....

let's just hope Trump has a rabbit up his sleeve somewhere!

I've already explained a dozen times, why prices would not be rising in the US, I'm not going to go through it again.

We need stuff, but it doesn't have to be from China. Only (wrong) reason it has been, is because one assinine US president (Bush 41) gave China unrestricted access to our massive MARKET, with no reciprocation, and the next 3 idiots (Clinton, Bush, Obama) did monkey see monkey do.

Regarding "need" you have things exactly backwards. China needs our huge market (none other like it in the world). We don't need China one bit. We HAVE our big market right here, without having to export to it. China has no market at home in China. That's why they export to here. They have lots of people, but they don't have MONEY in those peoples' pockets.

This is why Pat Buchanan once said if we have trade war, bring it on, we'll eat their lunch. WE are holding the high cards - our massive and wealthy MARKET.

As for manufacturing here, it takes about ONE MONTH to reshore and be functioning. Many companies already have.

4 Reasons Companies are Bringing Manufacturing Back to the U.S.

Record number of manufacturing jobs returning to America

 

[Dekster]

Despite claims to the contrary, we are in the initial stages of a trade war with China. But this is something that China simply can't win. In order to win a trade war, you have to either be even with the other country, or have a trade deficit with them. The one thing you can't have is a trade surplus.

If you have a trade surplus, you don't have any leverage to use tariffs against the other country. And the bigger the trade surplus, the less leverage (or trade war power) you have. In China's case, their surplus isn't big, it is gigantic.

China exports 6 times as much $tuff to the US, as vice versa. So this is like 2 people puttting up money for something. One puts up $10, the other $60. The $60 guy has a lot more to lose.
Making things worse for China, the threat of prices rising when US businesses leave China and return to America, has diminished almost entirely. There's a long list of economic reasons or that. Some of them I remember teaching to college kids 40 years ago. Other reasons have come about since that time, buy they're all piled up right now.

So why, in such a precarious position, does China go head to head with Trump on trade ? I think it's because they're (slimly) hoping that political pressures in the US will dissuade Trump from waging this war. But Trump has put a lot of political capital into the idea of restoring an equitable trade balance, thereby bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and making America great again. This is the cornerstone of his presidency. It's not on the table for negotiation with Democrats or anybody else.

Looking at this objectively, China can bluster, and bluff, but she doesn't have a prayer in this thing. China may register a few hits along the way, but Trump is pitching a shutout here, and I suspect the battle will be brief.

If China doesn't sell to the US then they don't have dollars with which to buy US bonds, US products, or invest in the US. Perhaps China can't win a tariff war with the US, but I am not sure people fully appreciate what deficits represent, particularly conservatives with an 18th century mercantilism mindset. GDP will take a massive hit if they follow through on much of any of this posturing going on by both sides. Trade deficits are healthy for the economy.

 

[Flopper]

Protectionist, I'm opposed to tariffs that are not applicable to all general imports or do not generally apply to all equally to all foreign nations. For nations' that otherwise experiences chronic annual trade deficits of goods, (particularly for such nations with higher median wage rates), Import Certificates are far superior to tariffs, or pure free trade, or any hybrids of the two trade policy concepts.
Tariffs upon basic materials rather than upon all goods or all finished goods are particularly net detrimental to their nation.
.
The policy described within Wikipedia's “Import Certificates” article would if adopted by the USA, significantly if not entirely eliminate USA's chronic annual trade deficits of goods in a manner that would more than otherwise increase our GDP and numbers of jobs.
.
Respectfully, Supposn

Yes, you and everyone else should be opposed to targeted tariffs levied by a president in time of peace. Targeted tariffs create a hostile environment between the two nations. With talks between the US and NK coming up in a month we need China's support. China is NK's oldest and strongest ally and their major trading partner. China can turn the bargaining table upside down on Trump with a phone call; not a good time to start a trade war with China.

Trump's tariff are being levied by executive order and will last only as long as he is in office and Republicans maintain control of congress. The tariffs are not popular with either democrats or republicans in congress. If Democrats are successful in the fall, congress could easily stop Trump. Since the executive order will expire when Trump leaves office, the tariffs could expire in 2 years or sooner. In other words, the tariffs are temporary with an uncertain future. Neither Chinese nor American businesses will change much at all. Americans will pay more for goods from China and the Chinese will pay more for American goods.

The Trump plan is obvious. At some time in the near future, maybe shortly before or after the tariffs are scheduled to go into effect, Trump will announce a major breakthrough in his negotiations with China. He'll regurgitate his interpretation Xi Jinping comments so they appear to be a great victory, praise China and his staff for the wonder work they have done and announce a new era in US China relations. Of course, it will all be BS.

 

[protectionist]

Yes, you and everyone else should be opposed to targeted tariffs levied by a president in time of peace. Targeted tariffs create a hostile environment between the two nations. With talks between the US and NK coming up in a month we need China's support. China is NK's oldest and strongest ally and their major trading partner. China can turn the bargaining table upside down on Trump with a phone call; not a good time to start a trade war with China.

Trump's tariff are being levied by executive order and will last only as long as he is in office and Republicans maintain control of congress. The tariffs are not popular with either democrats or republicans in congress. If Democrats are successful in the fall, congress could easily stop Trump. Since the executive order will expire when Trump leaves office, the tariffs could expire in 2 years or sooner. In other words, the tariffs are temporary with an uncertain future. Neither Chinese nor American businesses will change much at all. Americans will pay more for goods from China and the Chinese will pay more for American goods.

The Trump plan is obvious. At some time in the near future, maybe shortly before or after the tariffs are scheduled to go into effect, Trump will announce a major breakthrough in his negotiations with China. He'll regurgitate his interpretation Xi Jinping comments so they appear to be a great victory, praise China and his staff for the wonder work they have done and announce a new era in US China relations. Of course, it will all be BS.

1. We are not in a "time of peace" We have been in a time of war (economic) upon us by Mexico, for 70 years, and by China, since Bush 41 gave them unrestricted access to our huge/valuable market, without reciprocation.

2. There has BEEN a "hostile environment" for many decades, caused by hostility of countries (primarily China and Mexico) against us, engaging in international burglary of our economy (remittances$$, unfair trade balance, devaluation, etc)

3. We can get China's support more by playing our high cards (our massive market & tariffs) and being strong, much more than being weak.

4. Got a link for >> "The tariffs are not popular with either democrats or republicans in congress." ?

5. How is it possible that, as you say >> "Neither Chinese nor American businesses will change much at all." Do you think Trump is going to place tariffs that are too small to have any impact ? Tariffs at US ports are going to increase shipping costs to make those goods not economical to ship, and force the American companies to return to the US. That's the whole idea. Did you miss the 2016 campaign ?

6. No, Americans will not pay more for goods from China, because they won't be goods from China, they'll be goods Made in USA again. Those that remain in China will not be able to raise prices without triggering devastating SALES$$ reductions.

7. Nothing that Trump is doing is "BS". Nor is it the slightest bit difficult to ascertain. He is simply undoing the damage done by 4 moron US presidents who for 30 years, have inexplicably given China unrestricted access to our massive and highly valuable MARKET, which China needs, with no reciprocation.
If he didn't do what he's doing, he would be a moron just like they were.

 

[Flopper]

Despite claims to the contrary, we are in the initial stages of a trade war with China. But this is something that China simply can't win. In order to win a trade war, you have to either be even with the other country, or have a trade deficit with them. The one thing you can't have is a trade surplus.

If you have a trade surplus, you don't have any leverage to use tariffs against the other country. And the bigger the trade surplus, the less leverage (or trade war power) you have. In China's case, their surplus isn't big, it is gigantic.

China exports 6 times as much $tuff to the US, as vice versa. So this is like 2 people puttting up money for something. One puts up $10, the other $60. The $60 guy has a lot more to lose.
Making things worse for China, the threat of prices rising when US businesses leave China and return to America, has diminished almost entirely. There's a long list of economic reasons or that. Some of them I remember teaching to college kids 40 years ago. Other reasons have come about since that time, buy they're all piled up right now.

So why, in such a precarious position, does China go head to head with Trump on trade ? I think it's because they're (slimly) hoping that political pressures in the US will dissuade Trump from waging this war. But Trump has put a lot of political capital into the idea of restoring an equitable trade balance, thereby bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and making America great again. This is the cornerstone of his presidency. It's not on the table for negotiation with Democrats or anybody else.

Looking at this objectively, China can bluster, and bluff, but she doesn't have a prayer in this thing. China may register a few hits along the way, but Trump is pitching a shutout here, and I suspect the battle will be brief.

If China doesn't sell to the US then they don't have dollars with which to buy US bonds, US products, or invest in the US. Perhaps China can't win a tariff war with the US, but I am not sure people fully appreciate what deficits represent, particularly conservatives with an 18th century mercantilism mindset. GDP will take a massive hit if they follow through on much of any of this posturing going on by both sides. Trade deficits are healthy for the economy.

China's deficit is about the same percent of GDP as the US. However, China is the second largest economy in the world measure by GDP and the largest measured by purchasing power. Their economy is growing nearly 3 times as fast as the US economy. They certain don't have a problem with ready cash. There banking sector is the largest in the world with assets of 39 trillion and they are holding 1.1 trillion dollars in US debt. The size of their national debt is 25% of the US national debt. China will certain not be brought to their knees by these US tariffs. In fact, the tariffs may well not every be applied and if they are, most businesses in the US and China will continue as usually because the tariffs are not permanent.

 

[protectionist]

China's deficit is about the same percent of GDP as the US. However, China is the second largest economy in the world measure by GDP and the largest measured by purchasing power. Their economy is growing nearly 3 times as fast as the US economy. They certain don't have a problem with ready cash. There banking sector is the largest in the world with assets of 39 trillion and they are holding 1.1 trillion dollars in US debt. The size of their national debt is 25% of the US national debt. China will certain not be brought to their knees by these US tariffs. In fact, the tariffs may well not every be applied and if they are, most businesses in the US and China will continue as usually because the tariffs are not permanent.

1. You have no qualification to talk about the permenance of the tariffs. You have no way if knowing.

2. With all the great information you stated about China's economics, you failed to state the really important thing pertaining to the tariffs. That is China's exports to USA 4 times as big as US exports to China. No matter what China's economics may be, they NEED the gigantic US market. They don't ship all the way across the world to here, because they like boating.

Trump is holding the high cards, and he's playing them.

 

[Flopper]

Yes, you and everyone else should be opposed to targeted tariffs levied by a president in time of peace. Targeted tariffs create a hostile environment between the two nations. With talks between the US and NK coming up in a month we need China's support. China is NK's oldest and strongest ally and their major trading partner. China can turn the bargaining table upside down on Trump with a phone call; not a good time to start a trade war with China.

Trump's tariff are being levied by executive order and will last only as long as he is in office and Republicans maintain control of congress. The tariffs are not popular with either democrats or republicans in congress. If Democrats are successful in the fall, congress could easily stop Trump. Since the executive order will expire when Trump leaves office, the tariffs could expire in 2 years or sooner. In other words, the tariffs are temporary with an uncertain future. Neither Chinese nor American businesses will change much at all. Americans will pay more for goods from China and the Chinese will pay more for American goods.

The Trump plan is obvious. At some time in the near future, maybe shortly before or after the tariffs are scheduled to go into effect, Trump will announce a major breakthrough in his negotiations with China. He'll regurgitate his interpretation Xi Jinping comments so they appear to be a great victory, praise China and his staff for the wonder work they have done and announce a new era in US China relations. Of course, it will all be BS.

1. We are not in a "time of peace" We have been in a time of war (economic) upon us by Mexico, for 70 years, and by China, since Bush 41 gave them unrestricted access to our huge/valuable market, without reciprocation.

2. There has BEEN a "hostile environment" for many decades, caused by hostility of countries (primarily China and Mexico) against us, engaging in international burglary of our economy (remittances$$, unfair trade balance, devaluation, etc)

3. We can get China's support more by playing our high cards (our massive market & tariffs) and being strong, much more than being weak.

4. Got a link for >> "The tariffs are not popular with either democrats or republicans in congress." ?

5. How is it possible that, as you say >> "Neither Chinese nor American businesses will change much at all." Do you think Trump is going to place tariffs that are too small to have any impact ? Tariffs at US ports are going to increase shipping costs to make those goods not economical to ship, and force the American companies to return to the US. That's the whole idea. Did you miss the 2016 campaign ?

6. No, Americans will not pay more for goods from China, because they won't be goods from China, they'll be goods Made in USA again. Those that remain in China will not be able to raise prices without triggering devastating SALES$$ reductions.

7. Nothing that Trump is doing is "BS". Nor is it the slightest bit difficult to ascertain. He is simply undoing the damage done by 4 moron US presidents who for 30 years, have inexplicably given China unrestricted access to our massive and highly valuable MARKET, which China needs, with no reciprocation.
If he didn't do what he's doing, he would be a moron just like they were.

No, we are not at war with China. Congress has given presidents the power to impose tariffs for reasons of war and national security. A number of presidents have used that power even though there was no real danger to national security. Trump is just following suit.

Is there any real danger to the US in what China is doing? To answer that let's look at Trump's beef with China.

First, there's currency manipulation. Donald Trump named China a currency manipulator in his first days in the White House. There’s only one problem; it’s not true anymore. China, the world’s second-biggest economy behind the United States, hasn’t been pushing down its currency to benefit Chinese exporters in years. And even if it were, the law targeting manipulators requires the U.S. spend a year negotiating a solution before it can retaliate. The fact is, for the past couple of years China has been intervening in markets to prop up its currency, the yuan, not push it lower.

Donald Trump has attacked China over and over in regard to theft of intellectual property rights which has been going on for 3 decades. It certainly not any more of a danger to the security of the US now than it was 10 or 20 years ago. In fact it's probably a lot less due to new in Chinese regulation in 2015 to protect intellectual property rights of both national and international businesses which went into effect last year.

Although Trump is right to pursue a solution; slapping tariffs on a $100 billion worth of Chinese exports until China cries “uncle” and agrees to enforce IP protections will never work. It actually has a far higher likelihood of backfiring than succeeding. No country likes to be told what to do, and they especially don't like to be told in public and that goes double for the Chinese. IP has been a source of embarrassment for the government for years. They have dug their heels in denying it exist for years when faced with threats from the US. This has led to new regulations that most business in China believe will work.

Trump wants to fight tough as usually when what is needed is fighting smart by doing what actually works. IP in the video markets in China is half what it was 10 years ago because US companies have worked with Chinese companies and the government through the state dept to negotiation contracts with distributors in exchange for protection of property rights.

So, yes what Trump is doing is complete bull shit. Currency manipulation is no longer a problem and China is solving the IP problem but needs smart negotiations on the part of the US not strong arm tactics. What Trump is really doing is trying to appeal to his base who hate the fact that China can produce cheaper quality goods which has hurt US manufacturing. These people don't give a damn about IP and I doubt they understand currency manipulation. They just want see the Donald give China a knockout punch.

 

[protectionist]

No, we are not at war with China. Congress has given presidents the power to impose tariffs for reasons of war and national security. A number of presidents have used that power even though there was no real danger to national security. Trump is just following suit.

Is there any real danger to the US in what China is doing? To answer that let's look at Trump's beef with China.

First, there's currency manipulation. Donald Trump named China a currency manipulator in his first days in the White House. There’s only one problem; it’s not true anymore. China, the world’s second-biggest economy behind the United States, hasn’t been pushing down its currency to benefit Chinese exporters in years. And even if it were, the law targeting manipulators requires the U.S. spend a year negotiating a solution before it can retaliate. The fact is, for the past couple of years China has been intervening in markets to prop up its currency, the yuan, not push it lower.

Donald Trump has attacked China over and over in regard to theft of intellectual property rights which has been going on for 3 decades. It certainly not any more of a danger to the security of the US now than it was 10 or 20 years ago. In fact it's probably a lot less due to new in Chinese regulation in 2015 to protect intellectual property rights of both national and international businesses which went into effect last year.

Although Trump is right to pursue a solution; slapping tariffs on a $100 billion worth of Chinese exports until China cries “uncle” and agrees to enforce IP protections will never work. It actually has a far higher likelihood of backfiring than succeeding. No country likes to be told what to do, and they especially don't like to be told in public and that goes double for the Chinese. IP has been a source of embarrassment for the government for years. They have dug their heels in denying it exist for years when faced with threats from the US. This has led to new regulations that most business in China believe will work.

Trump wants to fight tough as usually when what is needed is fighting smart by doing what actually works. IP in the video markets in China is half what it was 10 years ago because US companies have worked with Chinese companies and the government through the state dept to negotiation contracts with distributors in exchange for protection of property rights.

So, yes what Trump is doing is complete bull shit. Currency manipulation is no longer a problem and China is solving the IP problem but needs smart negotiations on the part of the US not strong arm tactics. What Trump is really doing is trying to appeal to his base who hate the fact that China can produce cheaper quality goods which has hurt US manufacturing. These people don't give a damn about IP and I doubt they understand currency manipulation. They just want see the Donald give China a knockout punch.

Many words. None on target. The tariffs have to do with China's exports to the US, and the connection to US businesses having moved there, and are the exporters.

The tariffs make it uneconomical for them to continue in China, and exporting to the US. Their solution ? Move back to the US. Trump's campaign pledge. And he's delivering. Ho hum.

So what about that link I requested ?

 

[Dekster]

Despite claims to the contrary, we are in the initial stages of a trade war with China. But this is something that China simply can't win. In order to win a trade war, you have to either be even with the other country, or have a trade deficit with them. The one thing you can't have is a trade surplus.

If you have a trade surplus, you don't have any leverage to use tariffs against the other country. And the bigger the trade surplus, the less leverage (or trade war power) you have. In China's case, their surplus isn't big, it is gigantic.

China exports 6 times as much $tuff to the US, as vice versa. So this is like 2 people puttting up money for something. One puts up $10, the other $60. The $60 guy has a lot more to lose.
Making things worse for China, the threat of prices rising when US businesses leave China and return to America, has diminished almost entirely. There's a long list of economic reasons or that. Some of them I remember teaching to college kids 40 years ago. Other reasons have come about since that time, buy they're all piled up right now.

So why, in such a precarious position, does China go head to head with Trump on trade ? I think it's because they're (slimly) hoping that political pressures in the US will dissuade Trump from waging this war. But Trump has put a lot of political capital into the idea of restoring an equitable trade balance, thereby bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and making America great again. This is the cornerstone of his presidency. It's not on the table for negotiation with Democrats or anybody else.

Looking at this objectively, China can bluster, and bluff, but she doesn't have a prayer in this thing. China may register a few hits along the way, but Trump is pitching a shutout here, and I suspect the battle will be brief.

If China doesn't sell to the US then they don't have dollars with which to buy US bonds, US products, or invest in the US. Perhaps China can't win a tariff war with the US, but I am not sure people fully appreciate what deficits represent, particularly conservatives with an 18th century mercantilism mindset. GDP will take a massive hit if they follow through on much of any of this posturing going on by both sides. Trade deficits are healthy for the economy.

China's deficit is about the same percent of GDP as the US. However, China is the second largest economy in the world measure by GDP and the largest measured by purchasing power. Their economy is growing nearly 3 times as fast as the US economy. They certain don't have a problem with ready cash. There banking sector is the largest in the world with assets of 39 trillion and they are holding 1.1 trillion dollars in US debt. The size of their national debt is 25% of the US national debt. China will certain not be brought to their knees by these US tariffs. In fact, the tariffs may well not every be applied and if they are, most businesses in the US and China will continue as usually because the tariffs are not permanent.

The US is still the world's marketplace that everyone wants to be in. To be in the US, they have to have dollars. To get dollars, they have to have either someone willing to switch or invest in the US and trade with the US. The more US dollars and dollar generating assets they have, the less effective any future sanctions could be on them. China's economy is not as diversified as America's, it struggles with resources, and they are highly dependent on imported coal for energy. None of that, however, matters except to the extent to address your attempt at diverting the topic or fundamentally misunderstanding what was said (or both). Trade deficits are a healthy sign for the American economy and percentage growths do not mean much comparatively speaking as we are a mature, stable economy and theirs is not mature and their currency is only stable to the extent that it is pegged to those US dollars they need in the valuation basket. When they tried taking dollars out of that basket, their currency values turned down so they put them back in.

 

[Flopper]

No, we are not at war with China. Congress has given presidents the power to impose tariffs for reasons of war and national security. A number of presidents have used that power even though there was no real danger to national security. Trump is just following suit.

Is there any real danger to the US in what China is doing? To answer that let's look at Trump's beef with China.

First, there's currency manipulation. Donald Trump named China a currency manipulator in his first days in the White House. There’s only one problem; it’s not true anymore. China, the world’s second-biggest economy behind the United States, hasn’t been pushing down its currency to benefit Chinese exporters in years. And even if it were, the law targeting manipulators requires the U.S. spend a year negotiating a solution before it can retaliate. The fact is, for the past couple of years China has been intervening in markets to prop up its currency, the yuan, not push it lower.

Donald Trump has attacked China over and over in regard to theft of intellectual property rights which has been going on for 3 decades. It certainly not any more of a danger to the security of the US now than it was 10 or 20 years ago. In fact it's probably a lot less due to new in Chinese regulation in 2015 to protect intellectual property rights of both national and international businesses which went into effect last year.

Although Trump is right to pursue a solution; slapping tariffs on a $100 billion worth of Chinese exports until China cries “uncle” and agrees to enforce IP protections will never work. It actually has a far higher likelihood of backfiring than succeeding. No country likes to be told what to do, and they especially don't like to be told in public and that goes double for the Chinese. IP has been a source of embarrassment for the government for years. They have dug their heels in denying it exist for years when faced with threats from the US. This has led to new regulations that most business in China believe will work.

Trump wants to fight tough as usually when what is needed is fighting smart by doing what actually works. IP in the video markets in China is half what it was 10 years ago because US companies have worked with Chinese companies and the government through the state dept to negotiation contracts with distributors in exchange for protection of property rights.

So, yes what Trump is doing is complete bull shit. Currency manipulation is no longer a problem and China is solving the IP problem but needs smart negotiations on the part of the US not strong arm tactics. What Trump is really doing is trying to appeal to his base who hate the fact that China can produce cheaper quality goods which has hurt US manufacturing. These people don't give a damn about IP and I doubt they understand currency manipulation. They just want see the Donald give China a knockout punch.

Many words. None on target. The tariffs have to do with China's exports to the US, and the connection to US businesses having moved there, and are the exporters.

The tariffs make it uneconomical for them to continue in China, and exporting to the US. Their solution ? Move back to the US. Trump's campaign pledge. And he's delivering. Ho hum.

So what about that link I requested ?

He hasn't deliveries anything due to tariffs. They haven't even gone into effect and may not. However, I noticed his approval ratings in 3 red states are down after China took aim at pork and soybean imports from the US, Idaho and Tennessee were down 6 points and Iowa down 9 points.

You honesty think companies are going to move back to the US because of temporary tariffs that could disappear overnight. That's nuts.