The fertility rate in the U.S. was on a constant decline between 2014 and 2020 and has fluctuated since then, CDC reports.
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Hey, we are doing fine.
On this current trajectory, how long before no more people on the planet?
To estimate how long it would take for the human population in the USA to reach zero based on the current birth rate, we need to consider several factors, including the birth rate, death rate, and overall population dynamics.
As of 2025, the U.S. birth rate is approximately 11.99 births per 1,000 people. The death rate is also a crucial factor, as it affects population decline. The current death rate in the U.S. is about 8.7 deaths per 1,000 people.
If we assume that the birth rate remains constant and the death rate does not change, we can calculate the natural increase or decrease in population. The difference between the birth rate and the death rate gives us the rate of population change.
Birth Rate: 11.99 per 1,000
Death Rate: 8.7 per 1,000
Natural Increase: 11.99 - 8.7 = 3.29 per 1,000
This means that, currently, the population is still growing, albeit slowly. However, if the birth rate were to drop significantly below the death rate and remain there, the population would eventually decline.
To reach zero population, we would need to consider a scenario where the birth rate falls to zero while the death rate continues. Given the complexities of demographics, migration, and social factors, it's challenging to provide a precise timeline. However, if we assume a hypothetical scenario where the birth rate drops to zero and the death rate remains constant, the population would decrease over time based on the current population size.
For example, if the U.S. population is approximately 331 million, and the death rate is 8.7 per 1,000, we can estimate the annual deaths:
Annual deaths = (331,000,000 / 1,000) * 8.7 ≈ 2,883,000 deaths per year.
If there are no births, the population would decrease by about 2.88 million people per year.
To calculate how long it would take to reach zero:
Time to zero = Current population / Annual deaths
Time to zero = 331,000,000 / 2,883,000 ≈ 115 years.
115 YEARS
This is a simplified calculation and does not account for factors like changes in birth and death rates, immigration, and other demographic shifts.