Can Political Polls be trusted?

[Jackson]

Can political polls really be trusted?

No, the polls cannot be trusted. Biased news outlets, such as CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, and ABC News, have been found to be disproportionately polling more registered Democrats and presenting the findings as a fair representation of all voters.

latest political polls today - Bing

 

[Dekster]

The polls that agree with me are the only ones trustworthy. The others are clearly wrong.

 

[Jackson]

I really don't know this answer, so someone help. In the 2016 election, which pollsters were the most accurate?

 

[Jitss617]

No most Americans will not participate in polls.. and they are run by the deep left wing fring

 

[Jackson]

I don't know the answer to this, so hoping someone can help. What pollsters were the most accurate in 2016?

 

[Jackson]

The polls that agree with me are the only ones trustworthy. The others are clearly wrong.

Seriously, do you have any idea?

 

[Dekster]

The polls that agree with me are the only ones trustworthy. The others are clearly wrong.

Seriously, do you have any idea?

You asked the wrong question if you are looking for something other than what I stated. Perhaps you should have asked about how accurate they are or what is their predictive value instead of trustworthiness.

 

[ThisIsMe]

I dont believe they are reliable. Most polls are commissioned by a certain group, often, that group requests over sampling of a particular group. This skews the poll.

Basically, you can make a poll say anything you want it to say.

 

[Jackson]

These Pollsters Got The Election Right, According To RCP ...

These Pollsters Got The Election Right, According To RCP

Nov 19, 2016 · The most accurate poll that surveyed likely voters was the Investor’s Business Daily poll, a poll that has one of the finest records for calling races in recent political history. It was one of the only polls that called the race for Trump in the final days of the election, giving him 45 percent of the vote compared to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.



Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016 Does It Again

Robert Cahaly, senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, made a name for himself in 2016 by being the only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania -- two key states he carried -- heading into Election Day. (He did not poll Wisconsin, another surprising win for Trump.) Cahaly also showed Trump ahead in North Carolina and Florida, both of which he won, securing his improbable 304-227 Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton.


Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016 Does It Again | RealClearPolitics

 

[Dekster]

I really don't know this answer, so someone help. In the 2016 election, which pollsters were the most accurate?

The USC/LA times but they did it different. They re-polled the exact same group of people over the course of the general election and were the first and one of the few that had Trump moving ahead of Clinton heading into the final weeks. It was the only poll that captured the Trump surge at the finish line.

 

[elongobardi]

No. Polls are rigged by the side doing them which is mostly the Left Wingers Real polls show how they are losing and they don’t want them released.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jackson]

The polls that agree with me are the only ones trustworthy. The others are clearly wrong.

Seriously, do you have any idea?

You asked the wrong question if you are looking for something other than what I stated. Perhaps you should have asked about how accurate they are or what is their predictive value instead of trustworthiness.

We can't ask "how accurate they are (now)" because that wouldn't ;prove anything. We should be asking who actually got it right when most of the pollsters got it wrong. That fact I think helped divide this nation immeasurably. But that isn't what we are discussing here...I digress.

Good point about predictive value....Thanks

 

[Dekster]

The polls that agree with me are the only ones trustworthy. The others are clearly wrong.

Seriously, do you have any idea?

You asked the wrong question if you are looking for something other than what I stated. Perhaps you should have asked about how accurate they are or what is their predictive value instead of trustworthiness.

We can't ask "how accurate they are (now)" because that wouldn't ;prove anything. We should be asking who actually got it right when most of the pollsters got it wrong. That fact I think helped divide this nation immeasurably. But that isn't what we are discussing here...I digress.

Good point about predictive value....Thanks

I answered your other question. It was the LA Times.

 

[Jackson]

I really don't know this answer, so someone help. In the 2016 election, which pollsters were the most accurate?

The USC/LA times but they did it different. They re-polled the exact same group of people over the course of the general election and were the first and one of the few that had Trump moving ahead of Clinton heading into the final weeks. It was the only poll that captured the Trump surge at the finish line.

THANK YOU! Did you mean they repolled the same people during the campaigns last days?

 

[Dekster]

I really don't know this answer, so someone help. In the 2016 election, which pollsters were the most accurate?

The USC/LA times but they did it different. They re-polled the exact same group of people over the course of the general election and were the first and one of the few that had Trump moving ahead of Clinton heading into the final weeks. It was the only poll that captured the Trump surge at the finish line.

THANK YOU! Did you mean they repolled the same people during the campaigns last days?

They repolled the same 800+ people over and over and over again over the course of the election. I think it was somewhere between 850 and 900 sample size, but I forget. I paid special attention to them just because they were taking a different approach and wanted to see how it faired in relation to random sampling.

 

[blackhawk]

I really don't know this answer, so someone help. In the 2016 election, which pollsters were the most accurate?

I used Real Clear politics to get an average from multiple polls, With all polls you can't just take them at face value you have to look at how the question or questions are phrased the percent of how those polled break down politically between Democrat, Republican and indpendent. With RCP I ignored the older polls and focused on the most recent one's and if there was an outlier in there I dismissed it.

 

[Jackson]

I dont believe they are reliable. Most polls are commissioned by a certain group, often, that group requests over sampling of a particular group. This skews the poll.

Basically, you can make a poll say anything you want it to say.

I read that is exactly how it happens most of the time. I just wonder....if the polls are skewed by the organization desires, does that change the number of people voting. If they thought it was a sure thing Hillary was going to win, maybe they didn't vote. I have a relative in Illinois where most of the Republicans don't vote because it's so democratic, it won't make a difference. I think that the GOP should make the extra effort to get them out to see if they can change that.

 

[White 6]

No most Americans will not participate in polls.. and they are run by the deep left wing fring

What about FOX NEWS polls? I have never thought of FOX NEWS as being deeply left wing.

 

[Jitss617]

No most Americans will not participate in polls.. and they are run by the deep left wing fring

What about FOX NEWS polls? I have never thought of FOX NEWS as being deeply left wing.

The poll is run by divid Shaw who donated to Hillary

 

[Jackson]

No most Americans will not participate in polls.. and they are run by the deep left wing fring

What about FOX NEWS polls? I have never thought of FOX NEWS as being deeply left wing.

I think they lean right, but some of their polls are certainly not skewed to support Trump.