CA Gov election: Does the Swalwell scandal actually increase Democrats’ chances in November?

[Conservative from Georgia]

What prompts your bizarre expectation that Swalwell's supporters will run vote for Porter after she engineered this smear campaign?

Here’s a problem. I never mentioned Porter in this thread.
And here is an even bigger problem for you: you didn’t answer my question. I asked what made you think many of Swalwell supporters would stay home.

 

[Seymour Flops]

Here’s a problem. I never mentioned Porter in this thread.
And here is an even bigger problem for you: you didn’t answer my question. I asked what made you think many of Swalwell supporters would stay home.

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If they support Swalwell, and they believe that he was unfairly targeted by Democrats, especially his Democratic gubanatorial opponents, who would they get out the vote for?

 

[Conservative from Georgia]

If they support Swalwell, and they believe that he was unfairly targeted by Democrats, especially his Democratic gubanatorial opponents, who would they get out the vote for?

Well, your scenario necessitates conspiratorial thinking by a lot of voters who would think that somehow all other candidates get together at a table to tell several women to pretend they had been sexually assaulted.

 

[Seymour Flops]

Well, your scenario necessitates conspiratorial thinking by a lot of voters who would think that somehow all other candidates get together at a table to tell several women to pretend they had been sexually assaulted.

No, my scenario doesn't require that.

If they think he was unfairly targeted by just one, such as Katie Porter, they would still see that the others were going along with it.

I'm not saying all Swalwell supporters will stay home, but the rosy scenario of Swalwell's ouster benefiting Democrats requires that all of his supporters will rush to one of the other Democrats. Possible, but why would it be Porter? Porter becomes the frontrunner among Dems once Swalwell is officially out, so Swalwell's supporters will be opposing the frontrunner, making it more likely that you end up with two Reps in the General.

I'm not saying that is the only way it could happen. I just don't see a favorable outcome for Dems in this race as the most probable.

 

[Conservative from Georgia]

No, my scenario doesn't require that.

If they think he was unfairly targeted by just one, such as Katie Porter, they would still see that the others were going along with it.

I'm not saying all Swalwell supporters will stay home, but the rosy scenario of Swalwell's ouster benefiting Democrats requires that all of his supporters will rush to one of the other Democrats. Possible, but why would it be Porter? Porter becomes the frontrunner among Dems once Swalwell is officially out, so Swalwell's supporters will be opposing the frontrunner, making it more likely that you end up with two Reps in the General.

I'm not saying that is the only way it could happen. I just don't see a favorable outcome for Dems in this race as the most probable.

Steyer or Porter don’t need all of Swalwell’s supported right now. Getting even half of Swalwell’s votes is a lot. The goal is to get more than either Bianco or Hilton. or both.

Getting a significant number of Swalwell voters will get them closer or surpassing Bianco or Hilton.

If even one democrat makes it to the GE, it’s over.

 

[Seymour Flops]

Steyer or Porter don’t need all of Swalwell’s supported right now. Getting even half of Swalwell’s votes is a lot. The goal is to get more than either Bianco or Hilton. or both.

Getting a significant number of Swalwell voters will get them closer or surpassing Bianco or Hilton.

If even one democrat makes it to the GE, it’s over.

Sounds like you have the numbers of where each candidate stands. Could you post them please?

 

[Independent thinker]

California’s primary works differently … only the top two finishers advance, regardless of party. The Democrats’ biggest problem was having too many candidates splitting the vote while Hilton and Bianco ran basically unopposed on the right.

Now that Swalwell is done, his supporters have to pick someone else. That could actually push more voters behind one or two stronger Democrats instead of spreading them thin.

Honestly the Dems may have needed this. Too many cooks in the kitchen was their real problem going into June. If Swalwell dropping out triggers a few other long shots to call it quits too, Democrats could end up more united heading into November than they would have been if none of this ever happened.

List of Democrats urging Swalwell to exit California governor race

"These allegations are flat false," the Democratic gubernatorial candidate said in a post on X. "And I will fight them."

www.newsweek.com

Probably. In fact, it has crossed my mind that democrats have thrown yet another innocent person overboard for the sake of the party.

 

[Seymour Flops]

Here's the latest from New York Times:

Of course this is before the scandal broke. But that is what we need to look at to see if Conservative from Georgia's theory holds water.

It actually does. All Porter has to do is get about 2 - 6 percent of the 18 percent who were Swalwell voters to overtake Bianco (R) and she will be in the top two.

So Porter's strategy could be a winning one. Far be it for me to say that dirty politics doesn't work.

I believe it is more likely that Swalwell voters will not support Porter once her Democrat opponents start featuring her picture with the woman who started this in all of their ads.