British Scientist Whose Doomsday COVID-19 Model Panicked Governments Repudiates His Model

mikegriffith1

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This is rather stunning: Dr. Neil Ferguson, the British scientist whose scary COVID-19 model caused many governments to take drastic measures, has now repudiated his model. Ferguson predicted that 2.2 million Americans and 500,000 Brits would die from the virus if drastic measures were not taken. But now Ferguson is saying that British deaths will be no more than 20,000, which is 96% lower than his original prediction.

As of this morning, depending on which source you use, England has had between 463 and 578 COVID-19 deaths. To get to 20,000 deaths, England would have to see a dramatic spike in the death rate over the next 8 months. But, if Dr. Ferguson's revised prediction of 20,000 deaths (instead of 500,000 deaths) in England proves accurate, 20,000 deaths would be only 0.031% of England's population (66 million), or far below 1% of the population.

 

kyzr

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I think that's what we've been saying to all the 2.3m dead American predictors.
Their math is simply wrong.
4.4% "global" death rate x 20% or 30% of the US population gets into millions of deaths.
Just not happening, thankfully.
 

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Yeah, funny how no one wants to repeat that on the news to much ain't it?
 

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So...the guy says that if countries do not lock people down the virus will kill millions...and thus countries lock people down and now the expected death count is far less...would that not show that locking people down was effective?
 

Crixus

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So...the guy says that if countries do not lock people down the virus will kill millions...and thus countries lock people down and now the expected death count is far less...would that not show that locking people down was effective?

Maybe, but the biggest take away is it isn't right. When that came out on the news along with the fact that no patients have been denied a ventilator or that no "death panels" have been mobilized as of yet, you could just see the excitement and joy drain out of the dumb info-bimbos faces. The media looks stupid again.
 

shockedcanadian

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I've never believed the estimates were accurate. They have told us in Canada "between 30-70% of Canadians will get coronavirus". They've never altered that estimation, nor, brought it up much lately. The reason they don't bring it up, is that it's absurd on it's face. Is it possible? Sure. Extreme estimates though to think we are all a coin flip from getting a life threatening virus or not.

Another reason media isn't trusted, is that they, and often government, irresponsibly take the most extreme estimates of a subject and run with it. For many reasons I'm sure, but it's rarely questioned. It seems that today if you question anything related to "safety or security", then YOU must be the threat.

Meanwhile, with all of these supposed dangers, the subway in Toronto isn't even shutdown, nor 1000's of businesses. Huh? How can we predict such numbers yet, not take the most extreme steps possible if it is supposed to be true?

So in short, yes this might be serious, but it's rarely as serious as the far end of the spectrum which some present. Also, early models are just not going to be accurate. You need more data, time and a view of patterns over a duration.
 
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Golfing Gator

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Maybe, but the biggest take away is it isn't right. When that came out on the news along with the fact that no patients have been denied a ventilator or that no "death panels" have been mobilized as of yet, you could just see the excitement and joy drain out of the dumb info-bimbos faces. The media looks stupid again.
Well, yes there are patients that need a ventilator that don't have one. 20% of the hospitals surveyed said they did not have enough right now.
That does not take into account other PPE gear. Nurses are using the same mask for days in a row because they have no more. At my wife's hospital doctors are making decisions based upon how much PPE gear will be used.

And all this is what has taken place with much of the country on "lock-down", which was the point of us doing this, to avoid the hospitals being overwhelmed.

Once again you are using the positive that has come from the actions to prove they were not needed, which is very dishonest.
 

Lesh

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It's serious. You people need to stop
 

Lesh

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A narrative rocketed around social media earlier today: An Imperial College study said that COVID-19 could kill 500,000 Brits, but in recent testimony, Neil Ferguson, the head of the group behind the study, put the number below 20,000. Clearly the lying alarmist was walking back his ridiculous predictions!

Well, no. The paper actually offered simulations of numerous scenarios. The one resulting in 500,000 deaths was one where Great Britain just carried on life as before. Other scenarios, where the country locked down whenever it was necessary to stop the disease’s spread, put death totals below 20,000. (See the rightmost death columns of Tables 4 and 5.)


Since the paper came out, Great Britain has adopted a strategy of aggressively containing the virus and expanded its intensive-care capacity, so a prediction of a much lower death toll and less stress on ICUs hardly seems surprising.

This is rather stunning: Dr. Neil Ferguson, the British scientist whose scary COVID-19 model caused many governments to take drastic measures, has now repudiated his model. Ferguson predicted that 2.2 million Americans and 500,000 Brits would die from the virus if drastic measures were not taken. But now Ferguson is saying that British deaths will be no more than 20,000, which is 96% lower than his original prediction.

As of this morning, depending on which source you use, England has had between 463 and 578 COVID-19 deaths. To get to 20,000 deaths, England would have to see a dramatic spike in the death rate over the next 8 months. But, if Dr. Ferguson's revised prediction of 20,000 deaths (instead of 500,000 deaths) in England proves accurate, 20,000 deaths would be only 0.031% of England's population (66 million), or far below 1% of the population.

 

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The OP just shot the Trump narrative in the ass.

That horrendous death toll was one where social distancing etc. was not practiced. Where we go back to work too soon

The better outcome is one where we do what you idiots are fighting
 

shockedcanadian

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Maybe, but the biggest take away is it isn't right. When that came out on the news along with the fact that no patients have been denied a ventilator or that no "death panels" have been mobilized as of yet, you could just see the excitement and joy drain out of the dumb info-bimbos faces. The media looks stupid again.
Well, yes there are patients that need a ventilator that don't have one. 20% of the hospitals surveyed said they did not have enough right now.
That does not take into account other PPE gear. Nurses are using the same mask for days in a row because they have no more. At my wife's hospital doctors are making decisions based upon how much PPE gear will be used.

And all this is what has taken place with much of the country on "lock-down", which was the point of us doing this, to avoid the hospitals being overwhelmed.

Once again you are using the positive that has come from the actions to prove they were not needed, which is very dishonest.

Yes, that's a different issue though, especially in specific areas where contamination is high. There is the other concern about how many will die of cancer or other unrelated to coronavirus diseases because they didn't get the early checkup or, care needed because the hospitals are packed with people recovering from coronavirus, even if mild and the chances of them dying is slim.

The other issue for me, is that the numbers are so outlandish as to strike extreme fear. It's why I see people with fear in their eyes everywhere I go, it's as if they feel they are walking the plank and all hope is lost.

Yes, there is danger, so practicing social distancing, cleaning ones hands, taking it serious is paramount, but there are a whole slew of other dangers that branch out from this that aren't being considered. From the economic to the strain on health of those without the virus.
 

Crixus

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Maybe, but the biggest take away is it isn't right. When that came out on the news along with the fact that no patients have been denied a ventilator or that no "death panels" have been mobilized as of yet, you could just see the excitement and joy drain out of the dumb info-bimbos faces. The media looks stupid again.
Well, yes there are patients that need a ventilator that don't have one. 20% of the hospitals surveyed said they did not have enough right now.
That does not take into account other PPE gear. Nurses are using the same mask for days in a row because they have no more. At my wife's hospital doctors are making decisions based upon how much PPE gear will be used.

And all this is what has taken place with much of the country on "lock-down", which was the point of us doing this, to avoid the hospitals being overwhelmed.

Once again you are using the positive that has come from the actions to prove they were not needed, which is very dishonest.

No one has been denied a respirator. No one has had to decied who gets it while deciding who dies. All the death and destruction still hasn't come.
 

shockedcanadian

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The OP just shot the Trump narrative in the ass.

That horrendous death toll was one where social distancing etc. was not practiced. Where we go back to work too soon

The better outcome is one where we do what you idiots are fighting
This may be true, so your point is taken. However, are smaller towns and places in the Mid West practicing the complete social distancing and shutdowns that big cities have enacted? Even when they haven't, are they being impacted in such places and New York or Washington State?

Even Cuomo has admitted that shutting everything down may not have been the best response from a health standpoint as some doctors have suggested healthier, younger people might share it with their older, weaker immune system grandparents and parents.
 

Crixus

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Maybe, but the biggest take away is it isn't right. When that came out on the news along with the fact that no patients have been denied a ventilator or that no "death panels" have been mobilized as of yet, you could just see the excitement and joy drain out of the dumb info-bimbos faces. The media looks stupid again.
Well, yes there are patients that need a ventilator that don't have one. 20% of the hospitals surveyed said they did not have enough right now.
That does not take into account other PPE gear. Nurses are using the same mask for days in a row because they have no more. At my wife's hospital doctors are making decisions based upon how much PPE gear will be used.

And all this is what has taken place with much of the country on "lock-down", which was the point of us doing this, to avoid the hospitals being overwhelmed.

Once again you are using the positive that has come from the actions to prove they were not needed, which is very dishonest.

Yes, that's a different issue though, especially in specific areas where contamination is high. There is the other concern about how many will die of cancer or other unrelated to coronavirus diseases because they didn't get the early checkup or, care needed because the hospitals are packed with people recovering from coronavirus, even if mild and the chances them dying is slim.

The other issue for me, is that the numbers are so outlandish as to strike extreme fear. It's why I see people with fear in their eyes everywhere I go, it's s if they feel they are walking the plank an hope is lost.

Yes, there is danger, so practicing social distancing, cleaning ones hands, taking it serious is paramount, but there are a whole slew of other dangers that branch out from this that aren't being considered. From the economic to the strain on health of those without the virus.

In other words, wash your hands, stand on the blue X while in line and social distance, cover your mouth when you cough and sneeze and so on. I do see the fear you are talking about. But mostly I see regards with masks on taking selfies infront of empty TP shelves at the store.
 

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The death, doom and destruction from our reckless decisions regarding the economy are going to be far worse than whatever this virus does.

Do the math on this. I have been teaching for 25+ years. In bad "flu" seasons--you can count stomach flu here too--it is nothing for us to be missing four, five, sometimes more kids in a classroom every school day for months at a time. It is true that I have never had one student die from this, but they DO pass these germs to vulnerable adults who do.

We have never even closed school for this, let alone businesses, concerts, sporting events---EVERYthing.

It's ridiculous, and as time goes on, it's just going to seem more ridiculous. The narrative on this started turning a couple of days ago. The Leftists are already losing.
 

shockedcanadian

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The death, doom and destruction from our reckless decisions regarding the economy are going to be far worse than whatever this virus does.

Do the math on this. I have been teaching for 25+ years. In bad "flu" seasons--you can count stomach flu here too--it is nothing for us to be missing four, five, sometimes more kids in a classroom every school day for months at a time. It is true that I have never had one student die from this, but they DO pass these germs to vulnerable adults who do.

We have never even closed school for this, let alone businesses, concerts, sporting events---EVERYthing.

It's ridiculous, and as time goes on, it's just going to seem more ridiculous. The narrative on this started turning a couple of days ago. The Leftists are already losing.
Especially at Americans see China taking market share and turning themselves into the "hero". This could be a more drastic and everlasting shift of wealth and power to China than the last 20 years combined.

Quite a convenient outcome if it works out this way for China, considering the source of the virus...
 

Golfing Gator

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No one has been denied a respirator. No one has had to decied who gets it while deciding who dies. All the death and destruction still hasn't come.
How do you know this? Do you know the decisions made by every hospital across the country?
 
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mikegriffith1

mikegriffith1

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So...the guy says that if countries do not lock people down the virus will kill millions...and thus countries lock people down and now the expected death count is far less...would that not show that locking people down was effective?
Wow, really? Really? Did you read the article? BTW, Sweden has not locked down their population, nor closed their schools, etc., etc., and their infection and death rates are better than or comparable to those of many other nations, including nations that have taken drastic measures.
 

SweetSue92

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So...the guy says that if countries do not lock people down the virus will kill millions...and thus countries lock people down and now the expected death count is far less...would that not show that locking people down was effective?
Wow, really? Really? Did you read the article? BTW, Sweden has not locked down their population, nor closed their schools, etc., etc., and their infection and death rates are better than or comparable to those of many other nations, including nations that have taken drastic measures.
Even Cuomo now admits closing all these entities was overreach.

The liberals are losing fast on this.
 

Crixus

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No one has been denied a respirator. No one has had to decied who gets it while deciding who dies. All the death and destruction still hasn't come.
How do you know this? Do you know the decisions made by every hospital across the country?

The nice lady said so during the vivid 19 briefing g yesterday.
 

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