Breaking: Terrible GDP report just dropped… halfway to recession

[struth]

Our budget deficit in October was 284 Billion. The tariff taxation on Americans was only 33 Billion in same timeline.

How does that math work.

The new fiscal year started in September

The tariffs, started in Jan, which actually lowered the projected deficit from Xiden's budget, by 2 percent.

 

[citygator]

The new fiscal year started in September

The tariffs, started in Jan, which actually lowered the projected deficit from Xiden's budget, by 2 percent.

Year-to-date budget data shows a completely unstable fiscal picture under Trump.

Customs duties jumped by $118 billion (up 153%) largely because of the new round of tariffs imposed in early 2025.
But that surge was offset elsewhere: other major revenue categories — including corporate income taxes — weakened. So despite historic tariff levels, overall revenues barely improved.

On the spending side, FY2025 outlays climbed to $7.0 trillion, about $275 billion higher than last year.
And the headline “drop” in Department of Education spending — $233 billion (-87%) — is not a real cut to schools. According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, it comes almost entirely from:

• accounting changes to the student loan program under H.R. 1
• the end of temporary pandemic education funds
• the wind-down of the Education Stabilization Fund

In other words, that $233B decrease is a one-time accounting swing, not a permanent spending reduction.

If you remove that temporary, technical shift, federal spending is actually up by hundreds of billions across the rest of the government — driven by rising interest costs, health spending, defense, and other mandatory programs.

So despite record tariffs, weakened tax inflows in other areas, and no meaningful spending restraint, the fiscal path is deteriorating. Trump is steering a spending-and-revenue mess partially disguised only by a one-off accounting drop in the student loan program.

 

[Ringo]

By the way, Ukrainian MPs today voted to triple their salaries. But we'll print more money for them, won't we? Right?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

By the way, Ukrainian MPs today voted to triple their salaries. But we'll print more money for them, won't we? Right?

Well that didn't happen.

 

[Ringo]

Well that didn't happen.

Off course it didn't. Sleep tight.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Off course it didn't. Sleep tight.

Thanks, comrade.

 

[otto105]

The new fiscal year started in September

The tariffs, started in Jan, which actually lowered the projected deficit from Xiden's budget, by 2 percent.

Show your evidence to convince.

As of now, the federal budget deficit has ballooned to 39 Trillion.

 

[struth]

Show your evidence to convince.

As of now, the federal budget deficit has ballooned to 39 Trillion.

You don’t know when the federal fiscal year ends and begins? Hahah

And you are posting about the federal govt?

Dembots are stupid

 

[otto105]

You don’t know when the federal fiscal year ends and begins? Hahah

And you are posting about the federal govt?

Dembots are stupid

September 1st

Why do you not know that?

 

[struth]

September 1st

Why do you not know that?

Haha I do that’s why I wasn’t comparing October deficit to tariff taxes since Jan

 

[Hafar1014]

Back to back bad news with job creation plummeting and GDP SHRINKING 0.3% vs a rise of 0.4% expected. Trump is wrecking America.

U.S. economy shrunk 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses

Terrible news for people who love America and want it to succeed. 62000 new jobs down from 147000 last month,
Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations

Is America's economic slip temporary? Trump, Biden allies divided over GDP report

The economy contracted 0.3% in the 1st quarter as imports surged ahead of Trump's tariffs. But underlying data showed sturdy growth, despite GDP drop.

www.usatoday.com

Federal Reserve
Latest estimate: 3.8 percent — December 04, 2025
Its unchanged
This is great GDP
Your post says 1st quarter its the 3rd quarter Duh Dont you read your own posts

 

[struth]

Federal Reserve
Latest estimate: 3.8 percent — December 04, 2025
Its unchanged
This is great GDP
Your post says 1st quarter its the 3rd quarter Duh Dont you read your own posts

we have had massive GDP growth each qtr coming out of the Xiden admin.

 

[struth]

Show your evidence to convince.

As of now, the federal budget deficit has ballooned to 39 Trillion.

what the F are you talking about? The deficit for 2025 was 1.8 trillion, which was a decrease from Xiden's entire 2024 year

U.S. Deficit Decreases 2.8 Percent to $1.8 Trillion in FY2025, September Ends with $198 Billion Surplus - U.S. Deficit Decreases 2.8 Percent to $1.8 Trillion in FY2025, September Ends with $198 Billion Surplus - U.S. Congress Joint Economic Com

www.jec.senate.gov

 

[citygator]

Federal Reserve
Latest estimate: 3.8 percent — December 04, 2025
Its unchanged
This is great GDP
Your post says 1st quarter its the 3rd quarter Duh Dont you read your own posts

Third quarter isnt released. Not scheduled til Dec 23rd cuz Trump is incompetent. Consumer confidence is low and consumer spending is forecasted pretty low for this year and next year due to falling population growth and high prices - a total Trump recipe for disaster.

US Economic Forecast 2026-2030

Investment in artificial intelligence is supporting the economy, but questions remain about how long the momentum can last

www.deloitte.com

"In this scenario, high tariffs become more evident in consumer prices, raising the core personal consumption expenditures price index to 3.3% in 2026, up from 2.8% in 2024. Despite higher inflation, wage growth moderates, eroding purchasing power and consumer spending. In addition, weaker population growth from a sharp drop in net migration weighs on aggregate consumer spending. As a result, real consumer spending slows to 1.4% in 2026, down from an anticipated 2.1% in 2025. The unemployment rate rises to 4.5% in 2026, up from 4% in 2024.

Despite the slowdown in consumer spending, business investment remains strong as companies continue to pour money into AI-related investments. Even with the headwinds expected next year, real business investment is expected to grow by 3% before accelerating to 4.4% in 2028. Even so, real gross domestic product is expected to slow to 1.4% in 2026 from 1.8% in 2025. Growth is then expected to rebound above 2% in 2027 before slipping back below 2% through 2030."

 

[Hafar1014]

Third quarter isnt released. Not scheduled til Dec 23rd cuz Trump is incompetent. Consumer confidence is low and consumer spending is forecasted pretty low for this year and next year due to falling population growth and high prices - a total Trump recipe for disaster.

US Economic Forecast 2026-2030

Investment in artificial intelligence is supporting the economy, but questions remain about how long the momentum can last

www.deloitte.com

"In this scenario, high tariffs become more evident in consumer prices, raising the core personal consumption expenditures price index to 3.3% in 2026, up from 2.8% in 2024. Despite higher inflation, wage growth moderates, eroding purchasing power and consumer spending. In addition, weaker population growth from a sharp drop in net migration weighs on aggregate consumer spending. As a result, real consumer spending slows to 1.4% in 2026, down from an anticipated 2.1% in 2025. The unemployment rate rises to 4.5% in 2026, up from 4% in 2024.

Despite the slowdown in consumer spending, business investment remains strong as companies continue to pour money into AI-related investments. Even with the headwinds expected next year, real business investment is expected to grow by 3% before accelerating to 4.4% in 2028. Even so, real gross domestic product is expected to slow to 1.4% in 2026 from 1.8% in 2025. Growth is then expected to rebound above 2% in 2027 before slipping back below 2% through 2030."

I Just looked it up. The economy is growing under Trump after Biden wrecked it with inflation and poor energy policies. Wait till Jan 1st when tax cuts kick in.
Your post is hypothetical and you dont know what a good economy is

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The GDP numbers are a bit inflated, due to a drop off in imports. Imports are subtracted from GDP. Take with a grain of salt.

 

[citygator]

I Just looked it up.

No you didnt.

The economy is growing under Trump after Biden wrecked it with inflation and poor energy policies.

Oil production grew by 3.5M barrels a day under Biden. They only grew 2M under Trump 1.0. and they've barely grown a few hundred thousand under Trump 2.0.

Wait till Jan 1st when tax cuts kick in.

Tax cuts were an extension so no one actually gets anything on Jan 1st. My $30,000 in extra taxes just wont kick in. But I do appreciate not getting the tax increase in January at my income level. Thanks Trump!

Your post is hypothetical and you dont know what a good economy is

Unlike you nuts I am not running around claiming a mediocre economy is in ruins yet - we are hopping along fine but there are a lot of soft indicators suggesting a potential real pullback. I am a realist and can read data so you wont see me saying we are in a recession when we arent. Fewer people and higher tariffs are bad for the economy though - when that kicks in I have no idea.

 

[otto105]

Haha I do that’s why I wasn’t comparing October deficit to tariff taxes since Jan

The projected budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be about 2.0 trillion.

Is that higher or lower than 2024.

 

[protectionist]

Our budget deficit in October was 284 Billion. The tariff taxation on Americans was only 33 Billion in same timeline.

How does that math work.

Looks like we need more and bigger tariffs.

 

[Nostra]

Back to back bad news with job creation plummeting and GDP SHRINKING 0.3% vs a rise of 0.4% expected. Trump is wrecking America.

U.S. economy shrunk 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses

Terrible news for people who love America and want it to succeed. 62000 new jobs down from 147000 last month,
Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations

Is America's economic slip temporary? Trump, Biden allies divided over GDP report

The economy contracted 0.3% in the 1st quarter as imports surged ahead of Trump's tariffs. But underlying data showed sturdy growth, despite GDP drop.

www.usatoday.com

Update citygator