2)
One of the new polls, from Gravis Marketing, isnÂ’t necessarily reliable: the firm often produces findings that overstate the G.O.P. vote relative to other pollsters. In Ohio, its results have been particularly out of whack. Back at the start of September, when most pollsters had Obama well ahead in Ohio, a Gravis poll showed Romney out in front by three points. Two weeks ago, another Gravis poll showed the G.O.P. man leading by one point. Compared to that survey, the new poll, which shows the race level, actually represents a step backward for Romney.
3) Obama has a superior ground operation, which has helped him establish a big lead among early voters. As many as one in five of the Ohioans likely to vote have already filled out their ballots. According to the P.P.P. poll, Obama is leading among this group by virtually two-to-one: 66-34 . That doesn’t mean Romney can’t still win. But in order to close the gap, he would have to run up about a seven point margin amongst voters who have still to vote. The P.P.P. poll actually suggests that he has such a lead—52-44—but, as the firm noted, “obviously it’s easier to count on votes that are already in the bank.”
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Cassidy's Count: More Alarm Bells for Obama : The New Yorker