Be Prepared for the Worst

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Any number of pundits claim that we have now passed the worst of the recession. Green shoots of recovery are supposedly popping up all around the country, and the economy is expected to resume growing soon at an annual rate of 3% to 4%. Many of these are the same people who insisted that the economy would continue growing last year, even while it was clear that we were already in the beginning stages of a recession.

A false recovery is under way. I am reminded of the outlook in 1930, when the experts were certain that the worst of the Depression was over and that recovery was just around the corner. The economy and stock market seemed to be recovering, and there was optimism that the recession, like many of those before it, would be over in a year or less. Instead, the interventionist policies of Hoover and Roosevelt caused the Depression to worsen, and the Dow Jones industrial average did not recover to 1929 levels until 1954. I fear that our stimulus and bailout programs have already done too much to prevent the economy from recovering in a natural manner and will result in yet another asset bubble.

Be Prepared for the Worst - Forbes.com

 

[JW Frogen]

I was sure this thread would be about the return of a Rosie O'Donnel variety show.

 

[eagleseven]

Funny how Ron Paul has been more or less vindicated over the past 12 months?

 

[JW Frogen]

Ron who?

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Funny how Ron Paul has been more or less vindicated over the past 12 months?

Yes, and his stock has risen considerably. But he still doesn't get the respect he deserves.

 

[strollingbones]

rue paul is doing a show on drag queens

 

[The Rabbi]

rue paul is doing a show on drag queens

Its about the same thing.
I suspect the OP is right. I spoke to one of my customers who sells compressors to industry. While he had an uptick in demand over the last 2-3 months now he says that's evaporated. Many of the customers he had are out of business. So are many competittors.
A double dip recession would be good in that it puts paid to Obama's presidency.

I will say I suspect that the increase in corporate profits we've seen is not top line driven bt comes from cost cutting. That's good news bad news. Good news: if the economy recovers we will see corporate profits grow very quickly. Bad news, if it doesnt the icnreases in profits arent reproducible.