Another logic riddle, a lot tougher, builds on principles from the others

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The OP should have made two things clear:

1. Carnival games are for suckers. Like at a casino, the fix is in or the game wouldn't appear.
2. Switching cups costs you an additional $100.

That would have been a different riddle.

Also, charging $100 to switch would reduce your expectation.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Again, you ask the question NOT about cup 3 but whether the odds change if, after showing cup 3, the player chooses to move to cup 2

Yep! You increase your odds to 2/3, to switch to cup number 2.

 

[Grumblenuts]

That would have been a different riddle.

Also, charging $100 to switch would reduce your expectation.

Nope. You specified nothing to the contrary, so both could be inferred. Costing you another $100 to double your odds just makes sense -- from both perspectives.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Nope. You specified nothing to the contrary, so both could be inferred. Costing you another $100 to double your odds just makes sense -- from both perspectives.

Nonsense. "Inferred" means something follows from the information given. If I say "water is wet", you cannot infer that the moon is made of cheese from that, just because I did not say the moon is not made of cheese.


If you pay $100 each time to switch each and every time, your expectation basically drops to 50%.

For every three games you play, you will pay $600 and win $600. Neither you nor the carney make money.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Grumblenuts do the math.

If you play three times, you pay $200 to play (and switch your cup) each time. $600 paid to play.

You win the $300 prize 2 out of 3 times = $600 in prize money.

 

[Grumblenuts]

If you pay $100 to switch every time, your expectation basically drops to 50%.

Perhaps? Pointless speculation in any case. $300 - $100 vs $300 - $200 at twice the odds. Distinction w/o a difference.

For every three games you play, you will pay $600 and win $600. Neither you nor the carney make money.

Well, it's your puzzle. Don't blame me for explaining it to you

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Perhaps? Pointless speculation in any case. $300 - $100 vs $300 - $200 at twice the odds. Distinction w/o a difference.

Well, it's your puzzle. Don't blame me for explaining it to you

You didn't explain anything. You made up different riddles. And got the original riddle wrong, as I recall.

 

[Grumblenuts]

Nope. I covered my butt just fine throughout. "Do the math" with your original intent and see if it works out any better for either party..

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Nope. I covered my butt just fine throughout. "Do the math" with your original intent and see if it works out any better for either party..

Uh, you answered incorrectly.

But okay. If thinking you're right has as much value to you as actually being right, do what makes you feel good.

 

[Grumblenuts]

Uh, you answered incorrectly.

I answered correctly given my caveat, then admitted to missing your caveat which nullified mine. Meanwhile, you've failed to:

1. Acknowledge that, given my caveat had applied, I was correct.
2. Demonstrate that either party would make out any better given your intended reading.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I answered correctly given my caveat, then admitted to missing your caveat which nullified mine. Meanwhile, you've failed to:

1. Acknowledge that, given my caveat had applied, I was correct.
2. Demonstrate that either party would make out any better given your intended reading.

1) I don't remember your caveat

2) in which case? With your caveat? Or paying $100 to switch?

 

[Baron Von Murderpaws]

Knowing what I know about carnies, my logic says there's nothing under any of the cups, as he's used slight of hand to remove the prize.

 

[Grumblenuts]

1) I don't remember your caveat

2) in which case? With your caveat? Or paying $100 to switch?

1) If Monty Hall didn't know what was behind the doors..
If the carny didn't know where the money ended up..
Useful information.

2) Your apparent desire to have the initial $100 uncover two cups despite nowhere saying the second would cost one nothing..

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

1) If Monty Hall didn't know what was behind the doors..
If the carny didn't know where the money ended up..
Useful information.

2) Your apparent desire to have the initial $100 uncover two cups despite nowhere saying the second would cost one nothing..

1) If the carney flips one of the two remaining cups and it is empty, switching raises your odds to 2/3. Same outcome, IF the cup he flips is empty. If it has the prize, you lose.

2) Again, I also did not say the moon is not made of cheese.

If it costs $100 to switch, and you switch half the time

2/6 of the time you do not switch and you lose.

1/6 of the time you do not switch, and you win

2/6 of the time you switch and win

1/6 of the time you switch and lose

You play 6 times and pay $100 to switch three of those times

You have paid $900. You will win $900

 

[Grumblenuts]

Busy.. be back to smash you more later..

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Busy.. be back to smash you more later..

Again, tell yourself whatever makes you feel good brother.

 

[Faun]

Busy.. be back to smash you more later..

I cheated. I wrote an app that randomly picked a cup 1 billion times and each time, switched cups.

The result was the app picked the right cup 66.7% of the time.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

You're not offering the actual answer

Read through the thread.

Cheating is okay. But then you don't understand why it is 2/3. So only partial credit.

 

[Faun]

Read through the thread.

Cheating is okay. But then you don't understand why it is 2/3. So only partial credit.

No, I get it. You start with 1/3 odds, now you know 1 of the 3 is not right, making your odds 2/3. If you stay with your cup, your odds are still 1/3.

 

[Grumblenuts]

1) If Monty Hall didn't know what was behind the doors..
If the carny didn't know where the money ended up..
Useful information.

1) If the carney flips one of the two remaining cups and it is empty, switching raises your odds to 2/3. Same outcome, IF the cup he flips is empty. If it has the prize, you lose.

The carny now doesn't know what's under cup #3. Reminder (before):

You pay your $100 and point to Cup #1.

The carney flips over Cup #3 to reveal nothing is under the cup. He then asks you if you would like to keep your choice or change it to Cup #2.

Now (in my version):
You pay your $100 and point to Cup #1.

The carney flips over Cup #3, possibly revealing $300 in which case he would obviously not then ask you if you would like to keep your choice or change it to Cup #2. You would likely consider punching him in the mouth and then just leave. But notice how you honestly did have a 1 in 3 chance of winning the money. You simply lost because you didn't "point to" Cup #3. And, if you didn't win, you'll now honestly have another 1 in 3 (or 1 in 2 now, right?) chance of winning whether you switch Cups or not. Because the carny doesn't know which is which either!

In your intended version, since the carny already "knows what is under each cup," in order to successfully mimic Monty Hall, he then deliberately picks a cup that reveals nothing so that he can entice you into switching.. or not,.. thereby allowing for more advertising $ since he'll be able to show off more sponsor merchandise with less switching of contestants.. Your carnival is decidedly weird, which is probably why I slept through your caveat at first read.. expecting church volunteers to keep track of what's under each cup? Pffft. Pull the other one.

Anyways, for some reason, like Monty, in the actual OP version, your guy has this weird ability to ensure that you always choose Cup #1 and then he always reveals nothing under Cup #3 just as Monty Hall would always reveal a suboptimal "Door" rather than the one you chose and could presumably change the contents of the remaining two behind the curtains if the boss so wished in the meantime. Always having to choose Cup #1 first is not really like having had a choice at all.

2) Again, I also did not say the moon is not made of cheese.

If it costs $100 to switch, and you switch half the time

2/6 of the time you do not switch and you lose.

1/6 of the time you do not switch, and you win

2/6 of the time you switch and win

1/6 of the time you switch and lose

You play 6 times and pay $100 to switch three of those times

You have paid $900. You will win $900

Okay, great. Thanks again for sort of confirming that it would make no difference, just as I suspected. Perhaps you should just stick to asserting "Again, I also did not say the moon is not made of cheese" strawmen. Seems to bring you more genuine joy.