To convert a hush payment into 34 felonies, the case against Trump relies on a chain of assumptions with several weak links.
reason.com
A pretty detailed analysis of the various aspects of the ācaseā against Trump. It explores what the Bragg prosecution needs (minimally) to achieve a legally sufficient level of proof on the various interacting elements.
Personally, I donāt buy it.
I think a clearer more simplified analysis suffices.
1. The DA has to have proved (always beyond a reasonable doubt) that the misdemeanor of falsifying a business record took place in the first instance.
1b. Their position is that they ādid soā by showing that Trump paid Cohen his retainer fee which he āknewā constituted a reimbursement for paying for an NDA.
1c. There is no realistic basis (in the evidence) to prove that Trump āknewā any such thing since that would require a jury to believe the lying, perjurer and thief, Cohen, the sole witness on that point.
1d. Assuming that the jury is conflicted enough (by hatred for Trump) to do something that irrational, then a conviction is possible. But otherwise, they are morally obligated to acquit.
And thatās the outcome of just the first element. The misdemeanor.
But there is
at least one other complicating element. Thatās the prosecutionās obligation to PROVE that the allegedly āfalse entryā was done with the āintentā to commit an alleged crime or conceal its alleged commission.
2. The āotherā crime
may be the NY State Election Law. Itās not like the prosecution ever clearly identified it
as the āotherā crime. But for the sake of convenience,
2b. How would āreimbursingā Cohen for the
previously paid-for NDA (both the existence of which and payment for which was legal) be a plan to ācommitā the crime? (The election was already over by the time Trump supposedly āreimbursedā Cohen, after all.)
2c. It also couldnāt be a plan to āconcealā a crime since neither the NDA nor the payment for it
was a crime in the first place. So there was no crime
to conceal.
And thatās true regardless of the claim that Trump wished to hide the āpurposeā of the NDA.
Again, therefore, on the assumption that the jury is logical and objective and fair, there doesnāt seem to be ANY way they could possibly render a verdict of āguiltyā (especially beyond that good old reasonable doubt).
Letās see what the anti-Trump pro-conviction crowd has to say about this analysis.
(I may check for needed edits before the timer runs out.)