Alaska's permafrost is thawing

[Dot Com]

ice melts in summer...

Wow

Just ******* wow

and I'll bet that's because in summer, it's warmer?

DENIER!!!

one of the top denialists on the board chimes in w/ hyperbole

'twas ever thus

Sent from my VS415PP using Tapatalk

Shocking.

Where ya been?

been on the road so wifi is intermittant and i dont have access to my desktop equipped w/the Obamatron 2000 cpu 8-|

CrusaderFrank

Sent from my VS415PP using Tapatalk

 

[CrusaderFrank]

ice melts in summer...

Wow

Just ******* wow

and I'll bet that's because in summer, it's warmer?

DENIER!!!

one of the top denialists on the board chimes in w/ hyperbole

'twas ever thus

Sent from my VS415PP using Tapatalk

Shocking.

Where ya been?

been on the road so wifi is intermittant and i dont have access to my desktop equipped w/the Obamatron 2000 cpu 8-|

CrusaderFrank

Sent from my VS415PP using Tapatalk

LOL!!!

That was good

 

[flacaltenn]

"LONDON, 17 October, 2014 − If you doubt that parts of the planet really are warming, talk to residents of Barrow, the Alaskan town that is the most northerly settlement in the US.

In the last 34 years, the average October temperature in Barrow has risen by more than 7°C − an increase that, on its own, makes a mockery of international efforts to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2°C above their pre-industrial level.

A study by scientists at the University of Alaska Fairbanks analysed several decades of weather information. These show that temperature trends are closely linked to sea ice concentrations, which have been recorded since 1979, when accurate satellite measurements began.

The study, published in the Open Atmospheric Science Journal, traces what has happened to average annual and monthly temperatures in Barrow from 1979 to 2012.
Most striking

In that period, the average annual temperature rose by 2.7°C. But the November increase was far higher − more than six degrees. And October was the most striking of all, with the month’s average temperature 7.2°C higher in 2012 than in 1979.

Gerd Wendler, the lead author of the study and a professor emeritus at the university’s International Arctic Research Center, said he was “astonished”. He told the Alaska Dispatch News: “I think I have never, anywhere, seen such a large increase in temperature over such a short period.”"
Ice loss sends Alaskan temperatures soaring - Climate News Network

Good sourcing Thank you

Sent from my VS415PP using Tapatalk

Ha !! Except you take a pass on the actual temperature graph for Barrow, Alaska and ignored my sourcing saying that Urban Heating accounting for almost all of that hysterical rise quoted in D4E post.

Do you understand Urban Heating Island effects Dottie? Or are you just here to cheerlead?

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.adn.com/article/20150621...h-north-slopes-shrinking-tundra-travel-season

A decade ago, oil operators on the North Slope found themselves in a climate predicament. The steady warming seen since the late 1960s had cut the tundra travel season -- the period when operators are able to build ice roads or send vehicles over the hard-frozen ground -- by half, from about 200 days to only about 100.

Now, even though warming has continued and North Slope permafrost temperatures continue to rise, oil companies and land managers have halted the shrinkage of the tundra-travel season. Through some rule changes, application of technology and on-scene adaptations, they have even been able to regain some of the travel season lost to softening soils.

This past winter, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources allowed 143 days of tundra travel for at least some portion of the North Slope. Though that fell short of the long tundra-travel seasons enjoyed by oil companies in the early days of North Slope oil development, it was the third-longest in the past 10 years, said Brian Jackson, a natural resource specialist with the North Slope team at DNR’s Division of Mining, Land and Water. The season for using the ice roads constructed on the tundra was even longer; at 213 days, it was the longest ice-road-travel season since the winter of 2003-04, according to DNR’s records.

“It wasn’t the coldest winter. But it was consistent, and it was cold enough,” Jackson said.

Travel over the fragile Arctic tundra, including construction of temporary ice roads that are crucial transportation links for explorers and developers, is allowed only when the ground is sufficiently frozen or snow-covered to protect it from damage that could be caused by heavy vehicles.

What I don't understand, Flacaltenn, is that you know enough about research to know this particular fact. And then you claim the warming to be the product of a heat island effect. Are you being paid to lie? I can think of no other reason to ignore the obvious fact that the Arctic is rapidly warming.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

http://www.adn.com/article/20150621...h-north-slopes-shrinking-tundra-travel-season

A decade ago, oil operators on the North Slope found themselves in a climate predicament. The steady warming seen since the late 1960s had cut the tundra travel season -- the period when operators are able to build ice roads or send vehicles over the hard-frozen ground -- by half, from about 200 days to only about 100.

Now, even though warming has continued and North Slope permafrost temperatures continue to rise, oil companies and land managers have halted the shrinkage of the tundra-travel season. Through some rule changes, application of technology and on-scene adaptations, they have even been able to regain some of the travel season lost to softening soils.

This past winter, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources allowed 143 days of tundra travel for at least some portion of the North Slope. Though that fell short of the long tundra-travel seasons enjoyed by oil companies in the early days of North Slope oil development, it was the third-longest in the past 10 years, said Brian Jackson, a natural resource specialist with the North Slope team at DNR’s Division of Mining, Land and Water. The season for using the ice roads constructed on the tundra was even longer; at 213 days, it was the longest ice-road-travel season since the winter of 2003-04, according to DNR’s records.

“It wasn’t the coldest winter. But it was consistent, and it was cold enough,” Jackson said.

Travel over the fragile Arctic tundra, including construction of temporary ice roads that are crucial transportation links for explorers and developers, is allowed only when the ground is sufficiently frozen or snow-covered to protect it from damage that could be caused by heavy vehicles.

What I don't understand, Flacaltenn, is that you know enough about research to know this particular fact. And then you claim the warming to be the product of a heat island effect. Are you being paid to lie? I can think of no other reason to ignore the obvious fact that the Arctic is rapidly warming.

I don't see where you explain the 7C increase there

 

[IanC]

http://www.adn.com/article/20150621...h-north-slopes-shrinking-tundra-travel-season

A decade ago, oil operators on the North Slope found themselves in a climate predicament. The steady warming seen since the late 1960s had cut the tundra travel season -- the period when operators are able to build ice roads or send vehicles over the hard-frozen ground -- by half, from about 200 days to only about 100.

Now, even though warming has continued and North Slope permafrost temperatures continue to rise, oil companies and land managers have halted the shrinkage of the tundra-travel season. Through some rule changes, application of technology and on-scene adaptations, they have even been able to regain some of the travel season lost to softening soils.

This past winter, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources allowed 143 days of tundra travel for at least some portion of the North Slope. Though that fell short of the long tundra-travel seasons enjoyed by oil companies in the early days of North Slope oil development, it was the third-longest in the past 10 years, said Brian Jackson, a natural resource specialist with the North Slope team at DNR’s Division of Mining, Land and Water. The season for using the ice roads constructed on the tundra was even longer; at 213 days, it was the longest ice-road-travel season since the winter of 2003-04, according to DNR’s records.

“It wasn’t the coldest winter. But it was consistent, and it was cold enough,” Jackson said.

Travel over the fragile Arctic tundra, including construction of temporary ice roads that are crucial transportation links for explorers and developers, is allowed only when the ground is sufficiently frozen or snow-covered to protect it from damage that could be caused by heavy vehicles.

What I don't understand, Flacaltenn, is that you know enough about research to know this particular fact. And then you claim the warming to be the product of a heat island effect. Are you being paid to lie? I can think of no other reason to ignore the obvious fact that the Arctic is rapidly warming.

I believe you were present when the paper discussing the Barrow heat island effect of about 2C was linked. as usual you conveniently forget everything that you find inconvenient to your talking points.

 

[jc456]

http://www.adn.com/article/20150621...h-north-slopes-shrinking-tundra-travel-season

A decade ago, oil operators on the North Slope found themselves in a climate predicament. The steady warming seen since the late 1960s had cut the tundra travel season -- the period when operators are able to build ice roads or send vehicles over the hard-frozen ground -- by half, from about 200 days to only about 100.

Now, even though warming has continued and North Slope permafrost temperatures continue to rise, oil companies and land managers have halted the shrinkage of the tundra-travel season. Through some rule changes, application of technology and on-scene adaptations, they have even been able to regain some of the travel season lost to softening soils.

This past winter, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources allowed 143 days of tundra travel for at least some portion of the North Slope. Though that fell short of the long tundra-travel seasons enjoyed by oil companies in the early days of North Slope oil development, it was the third-longest in the past 10 years, said Brian Jackson, a natural resource specialist with the North Slope team at DNR’s Division of Mining, Land and Water. The season for using the ice roads constructed on the tundra was even longer; at 213 days, it was the longest ice-road-travel season since the winter of 2003-04, according to DNR’s records.

“It wasn’t the coldest winter. But it was consistent, and it was cold enough,” Jackson said.

Travel over the fragile Arctic tundra, including construction of temporary ice roads that are crucial transportation links for explorers and developers, is allowed only when the ground is sufficiently frozen or snow-covered to protect it from damage that could be caused by heavy vehicles.

What I don't understand, Flacaltenn, is that you know enough about research to know this particular fact. And then you claim the warming to be the product of a heat island effect. Are you being paid to lie? I can think of no other reason to ignore the obvious fact that the Arctic is rapidly warming.

well, I'm curious how back in the 60s, without the additional 20 PPM of CO2 that makes temperatures sky rocket 7 degrees C, it was warming? Holy crap, it must be a fricken mud pit today. Right? I mean you have to add the 20 PPM of CO2 and all and then get 7 degree C rise. And only 7 degree C in one City in Alaska btw. CO2 is really magical. The permafrost melts when there isn't as much CO2 as there is when there is more CO2.

 

[gallantwarrior]

"Since everything in Alaska is built on top of the permafrost ground, this is Bad."
Far from true, but you are forgiven since you do not live here.
The picture of the house falling into the sea is not a result of permafrost melting, but rather of coastal erosion, an entirely different matter. It's easy to find pictures of houses falling into glacial rivers, too.
And instead of subsidence, it has been proposed that as glaciers melt, the result of all that weight removed actually lets the land mass rebound and rise.
But it's all OK. The gorbal warming contingent will continue to publish untruths and half-truths that will be swallowed by the gullible who so dearly want to believe that their anthropomorphic warming religion is the one true religion. And as such, it must be forced upon everyone else, much like Christianity and islaam.

 

[gallantwarrior]

Alaska sinks as climate change thaws permafrost

USA TODAY traveled to the Fairbanks area, where workers were busy insulating thaw-damaged roads this summer amid a record number of 80-degree (or hotter) days, as the eighth stop in a year-long series to explore how climate change is changing lives.

The pace of permafrost thawing is "accelerating," says Vladimir Romanovsky, who runs the University of Alaska's Permafrost Laboratory in Fairbanks. He expects widespread degradation will start in a decade or two. By mid-century, his models suggest, permafrost could thaw in at least a third of Alaska and by 2100, in two-thirds of the state.

"This rapid thawing is unprecedented" and is largely due to fossil-fuel emissions, says Kevin Schaefer of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. He says it's already emitting its own heat-trapping carbon dioxide and methane, but the amount will skyrocket in the next 20 to 30 years. "Once the emissions start, they can't be turned off."

Telltale signs are common — from huge potholes in parking lots to collapsed hill slopes and leaning trees in what are called "drunken forests" in Denali National Park, home of the majestic Mount McKinley — North America's tallest peak.

"You can see and hear the ice melting," says Ted Schuur, a permafrost expert at theUniversity of Florida who's doing field studies in central Alaska. He says permafrost contains soil and plant matter as well as chunks of ice as big as cars. When the ice melts, the ground sinks. He's seen it with his own cabin near Fairbanks, which was listing until he leveled one side with adjustable foundation piers.

This is not models as you damned well know, Westwall. The melting permafrost is creating trouble for Alaskan infrastructure right now.

huge potholes in parking lots to collapsed hill slopes and leaning trees in what are called "drunken forests"
Holy FMTT!! You really do not know what it's like here! Huge potholes!? Collapsed hill slopes!? "Drunken forests"!? Not only have you never been here but it's obvious that the author of this screed hasn't been here, nor lived here...ever. Those things have always been part of life here.
Oh, yeah, when permafrost melts under a structure, it's usually because the builder used poor construction practices not suitable to climates where permafrost is common.

 

[gallantwarrior]

Climate and Frozen Ground | National Snow and Ice Data Center

The story of Shishmaref, Alaska, shows how climate can affect frozen ground. Five hundred people live in Shishmaref, a small town on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, near the Bering Strait. The Inupiaq people have lived in the area for thousands of years. But Shishmaref is falling into the sea. The townspeople may have to leave their village forever.

Shishmaref is built on permafrost along the coast of the Bering Sea. In the past, summers were short and cool. Winters were very cold, and the ground stayed frozen. Sea ice protected the shore from waves even in the summer. But the climate has warmed. The summer sea ice that protected the coast has melted away, and the permafrost has thawed. Now waves batter the shoreline in summer, washing away the coastline. Every year, about seven meters (twenty-three feet) of Shishmaref washes into the sea (Figure 1).

The people of Shishmaref have moved their buildings away from the shore, and have put rocks and sandbags down to protect the coast. But the waves are still washing the land away. Villagers plan to move the town to a new site.

Like many other places in the Arctic, they are seeing changes in areas that have been stable for hundreds of years.

First, Shismaref is falling to coastal erosion. Second, Natives were traditionally nomadic, following their food sources seasonally. After Westerners arrived, the Natives established towns in order to trade with the newcomers. Later, federal and state entities made it far more convenient to have an established location than to follow age-old traditional migration routes. Many of the villages the priests of gorbal warming love to cite in their homilies have been established far less longer than "hundreds of years". But it's all OK, after all, the end justifies the lies.

 

[gallantwarrior]

Gotta love it when liars like Westwall, Billy Bob, and jc come on here are flap their yaps. All one has to do is put permafrost and Alaska on google to see what the people up there are dealing with.

Really? I guess I'm just flapping my yap, too?
Where exactly do you live, OR?

 

[gallantwarrior]

The one to ask is gallantwarrior since he lives there.

Thank you, Gracie! Airplanemechnic lives here, too.

 

[gallantwarrior]

The one to ask is gallantwarrior since he lives there.

biased anectdotal evidence? Seriously?

Sent from my VS415PP using Tapatalk

Let's try actual living there "anecdotal" evidence? Funny thing about "anecdotal" evidence...it's often provided by those who actually experience the "evidence" rather than those who read about it or see it on the evening news.

 

[Billy_Bob]

"LONDON, 17 October, 2014 − If you doubt that parts of the planet really are warming, talk to residents of Barrow, the Alaskan town that is the most northerly settlement in the US.

In the last 34 years, the average October temperature in Barrow has risen by more than 7°C − an increase that, on its own, makes a mockery of international efforts to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2°C above their pre-industrial level.

A study by scientists at the University of Alaska Fairbanks analysed several decades of weather information. These show that temperature trends are closely linked to sea ice concentrations, which have been recorded since 1979, when accurate satellite measurements began.

The study, published in the Open Atmospheric Science Journal, traces what has happened to average annual and monthly temperatures in Barrow from 1979 to 2012.
Most striking

In that period, the average annual temperature rose by 2.7°C. But the November increase was far higher − more than six degrees. And October was the most striking of all, with the month’s average temperature 7.2°C higher in 2012 than in 1979.

Gerd Wendler, the lead author of the study and a professor emeritus at the university’s International Arctic Research Center, said he was “astonished”. He told the Alaska Dispatch News: “I think I have never, anywhere, seen such a large increase in temperature over such a short period.”"
Ice loss sends Alaskan temperatures soaring - Climate News Network

You have posted several doom and gloom articles from idiots who are claiming one small region of warming indicates global warming... while you ignore 98% of the planet that is cooling. Its rather interesting that you fail to read the whole of the documents which do not claim this as being global.

 

[Dot Com]

Sent from my VS415PP using Tapatalk

 

[flacaltenn]

http://www.adn.com/article/20150621...h-north-slopes-shrinking-tundra-travel-season

A decade ago, oil operators on the North Slope found themselves in a climate predicament. The steady warming seen since the late 1960s had cut the tundra travel season -- the period when operators are able to build ice roads or send vehicles over the hard-frozen ground -- by half, from about 200 days to only about 100.

Now, even though warming has continued and North Slope permafrost temperatures continue to rise, oil companies and land managers have halted the shrinkage of the tundra-travel season. Through some rule changes, application of technology and on-scene adaptations, they have even been able to regain some of the travel season lost to softening soils.

This past winter, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources allowed 143 days of tundra travel for at least some portion of the North Slope. Though that fell short of the long tundra-travel seasons enjoyed by oil companies in the early days of North Slope oil development, it was the third-longest in the past 10 years, said Brian Jackson, a natural resource specialist with the North Slope team at DNR’s Division of Mining, Land and Water. The season for using the ice roads constructed on the tundra was even longer; at 213 days, it was the longest ice-road-travel season since the winter of 2003-04, according to DNR’s records.

“It wasn’t the coldest winter. But it was consistent, and it was cold enough,” Jackson said.

Travel over the fragile Arctic tundra, including construction of temporary ice roads that are crucial transportation links for explorers and developers, is allowed only when the ground is sufficiently frozen or snow-covered to protect it from damage that could be caused by heavy vehicles.

What I don't understand, Flacaltenn, is that you know enough about research to know this particular fact. And then you claim the warming to be the product of a heat island effect. Are you being paid to lie? I can think of no other reason to ignore the obvious fact that the Arctic is rapidly warming.

This is one of the main reasons I don't do snow, ice, and by association, permafrost. All those things are very NON-linear thermometers. They tell you NOTHING about yearly average temperature -- only the amount of time above or below freezing. When you ADD a single thaw day per season -- the ice and permafrost is DOOMED no matter if the Surf. Annual Temp. temperature stays the same. So it's not surprising that Alaska is losing it's summer ice cover. And that cold coming out from "cold storage" is leaving the ground.

Like other non-linear relationships --- won't matter if the added thaw is ONE day at 1degC above freeze -- or 10 days at 0.10degC above freeze. So once you start seeing ANY thaw days -- that ice, snow, and permafrost is pretty much doomed. THAT point was last hit sometime in the late 19th Century..

You wouldn't want to live in a climate where the Permafrost was expanding. We SHOULD study it and adapt to the fact that ice is losing. But tossing about temperatures in Barrow Alaska, wont' make you any smarter about what's happening out on the tundra.

 

[Old Rocks]

Permafrost Thaw Accelerates in Boreal Peatlands During Late-20th Century Climate Warming - Springer

Abstract
Permafrost covers 25% of the land surface in the northern hemisphere, where mean annual ground temperature is less than 0°C. A 1.4–5.8 °C warming by 2100 will likely change the sign of mean annual air and ground temperatures over much of the zones of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in the northern hemisphere, causing widespread permafrost thaw. In this study, I examined rates of discontinuous permafrost thaw in the boreal peatlands of northern Manitoba, Canada, using a combination of tree-ring analyses to document thaw rates from 1941–1991 and direct measurements of permanent benchmarks established in 1995 and resurveyed in 2002. I used instrumented records of mean annual and seasonal air temperatures, mean winter snow depth, and duration of continuous snow pack from climate stations across northern Manitoba to analyze temporal and spatial trends in these variables and their potential impacts on thaw. Permafrost thaw in central Canadian peatlands has accelerated significantly since 1950, concurrent with a significant, late-20th-century average climate warming of +1.32 °C in this region. There were strong seasonal differences in warming in northern Manitoba, with highest rates of warming during winter (+1.39 °C to +1.66 °C) and spring (+0.56 °C to +0.78 °C) at southern climate stations where permafrost thaw was most rapid. Projecting current warming trends to year 2100, I show that trends for north-central Canada are in good agreement with general circulation models, which suggest a 4–8 °C warming at high latitudes. This magnitude of warming will begin to eliminate most of the present range of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in central Canada by 2100.

No, I don't live in Alaska or northern Canada, although I have traveled overland to Yellowknife. However, these people study the permafrost.

 

[Old Rocks]

Influence of permafrost distribution on groundwater flow in the context of climate-driven permafrost thaw: Example from Yukon Flats Basin, Alaska, United States - Walvoord - 2012 - Water Resources Research - Wiley Online Library

Abstract
[1] Understanding the role of permafrost in controlling groundwater flow paths and fluxes is central in studies aimed at assessing potential climate change impacts on vegetation, species habitat, biogeochemical cycling, and biodiversity. Recent field studies in interior Alaska show evidence of hydrologic changes hypothesized to result from permafrost degradation. This study assesses the hydrologic control exerted by permafrost, elucidates modes of regional groundwater flow for various spatial permafrost patterns, and evaluates potential hydrologic consequences of permafrost degradation. The Yukon Flats Basin (YFB), a large (118,340 km2) subbasin within the Yukon River Basin, provides the basis for this investigation. Model simulations that represent an assumed permafrost thaw sequence reveal the following trends with decreasing permafrost coverage: (1) increased groundwater discharge to rivers, consistent with historical trends in base flow observations in the Yukon River Basin, (2) potential for increased overall groundwater flux, (3) increased spatial extent of groundwater discharge in lowlands, and (4) decreased proportion of suprapermafrost (shallow) groundwater contribution to total base flow. These trends directly affect the chemical composition and residence time of riverine exports, the state of groundwater-influenced lakes and wetlands, seasonal river-ice thickness, and stream temperatures. Presently, the YFB is coarsely mapped as spanning the continuous-discontinuous permafrost transition that model analysis shows to be a critical threshold; thus, the YFB may be on the verge of major hydrologic change should the current permafrost extent decrease. This possibility underscores the need for improved characterization of permafrost and other hydrogeologic information in the region via geophysical techniques, remote sensing, and ground-based observations.

More information from the people who are on scene, studying the thaw.

 

[flacaltenn]

Permafrost Thaw Accelerates in Boreal Peatlands During Late-20th Century Climate Warming - Springer

Abstract
Permafrost covers 25% of the land surface in the northern hemisphere, where mean annual ground temperature is less than 0°C. A 1.4–5.8 °C warming by 2100 will likely change the sign of mean annual air and ground temperatures over much of the zones of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in the northern hemisphere, causing widespread permafrost thaw. In this study, I examined rates of discontinuous permafrost thaw in the boreal peatlands of northern Manitoba, Canada, using a combination of tree-ring analyses to document thaw rates from 1941–1991 and direct measurements of permanent benchmarks established in 1995 and resurveyed in 2002. I used instrumented records of mean annual and seasonal air temperatures, mean winter snow depth, and duration of continuous snow pack from climate stations across northern Manitoba to analyze temporal and spatial trends in these variables and their potential impacts on thaw. Permafrost thaw in central Canadian peatlands has accelerated significantly since 1950, concurrent with a significant, late-20th-century average climate warming of +1.32 °C in this region. There were strong seasonal differences in warming in northern Manitoba, with highest rates of warming during winter (+1.39 °C to +1.66 °C) and spring (+0.56 °C to +0.78 °C) at southern climate stations where permafrost thaw was most rapid. Projecting current warming trends to year 2100, I show that trends for north-central Canada are in good agreement with general circulation models, which suggest a 4–8 °C warming at high latitudes. This magnitude of warming will begin to eliminate most of the present range of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in central Canada by 2100.

No, I don't live in Alaska or northern Canada, although I have traveled overland to Yellowknife. However, these people study the permafrost.

Yep -- gonna be some melting. But not as much as these guys projected back in 2005 -- BEFORE the projections for 2100 were revised strongly downward..

 

[Crick]

How can there be any more melting if global warming stopped in 1998 and almost every bit of the data are falsified?