If they run Trump, they're fucked as well. With 1 in 4 GOP voters indicating they will vote for Hillary instead of Trump, you lose about the same amount of voters. Only Hillary gains them instead.
Worse, Trump has one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any candidate, ever. Currently at around 65%. With 54% indicating they will never vote Trump.
The GOP is fucked either way. The only question is if they want to take the hit early or later. I predict they'll take it erarlier. As they can repudiate Trump and his positions and try and control their own brand. It will split the party, but that's happening anyway. The only question is if that occurs before or after Trump stains the GOP brand for the next decade.
Not sure who is staining, or has stained the brand more, Trump or the insiders. There's plenty of stain to go around though.
With the general electorate and independents? Trump.
Whether you agree or don't, the GOP establishment will feel it to be so. And they'll want to define their own message, platform and brand. If they have a brokered convention, the party splits and at a very emotional point. So its going to hurt more in the short term. They lose the general election and probably the senate.
But they get to control their own message.
If they nominate Trump, they're stuck with every stupid thing Trump has ever said. From Birtherism to nuking Europe because its a 'big place', to Muslims being barred from the US to the "Mexicans are Rapists', to Trump's creepy fixation on Megan Kelly.......the republicans undo pretty much all of their outreach for the last decade. And it will take about that long again to get back to where they were before Trump came along.
The advantage of that approach is that while losing control of their own message, they can keep the party together for a little while longer. And might be able to split it on more amicable, less emotional circumstances.
My prediction (and you're right on the futility of such this far out....consider it my best guess at this point),......the GOP goes with a brokered convention and nominates Ryan.
Trumps negatives are a problem, but Hillary carries pretty high negatives too. Guess what, there is plenty of negative to go around too.
Oh, Hillary is the weakest candidate that the Democrats have run in my lifetime. And yet Trump is worse still. That's quite an accomplishment. About 7% of Democrats would defect to Trump to flee Hillary. About 25% of republicans would defect to Hillary to flee Trump.
I must be older than you, the name Dukakis ring a bell?
Did Dukakis have an indictment hanging over his head. Or roughly 50% disapproval ratings with the general electorate?
They could go Ryan. I like him a lot. Hard to predict if they could sway the Trumpsters back though, and if Donald goes rogue third party.....ooh. That is a liberal media feeding frenzy. It's a risky move, but they are short on safe choices.
Ryan? He's the face of the 'establishment'. The only question among Trumpsters would be to find the exact 'fattest part of their ass'' for Ryan to kiss.
Ryan would be for the general electorate. Not to win. But to provide a much better last impression of the GOP before they lose the general election. He's articulate, careful, reasonably good looking, and civil. And compared to Trump, Ryan looks downright moderate.
That's the image the GOP would want to leave the electorate with at the end of this farce. Not Trump going on national television to talk about his dick.
Would Paul Ryan even accept the nod? He may see the mess and decide he doesn't want to step in. 4 years of speaker could allow him to pull the party together for a run in 2020. Why take the shot now? I could see a president trump saying 4 years is enough, way too many rules for his taste.
Ryan would if the Party asked him to. Just like he accepted the Speakership. Ryan is a numbers wonk. Ways and Means committee reports are like catnip for this guy. Ryan was *exactly* where he wanted to be heading that committee. If he'd give up his baby for the Speakership, he'd give up the Speakership for the nomination.
If the party asked him. The Speakership is not a job he wanted to begin with.
Neither Trump nor Cruz is going to accept Kasich parachuting in to the Nomination at the last minute when he has only won one primary [ in his home state]...It is going to be a a death match Convention ...
You make a lot of sense. One could argue at this point, anybody besides Trump or Cruz as the nominee would do severe damage to the party. Trumpsters are going to be irate if their guy goes in with the most delegates and they hand the nomination to anybody else. The Cruz faithful will keep echoing only he can defeat Hillary. It's a potential train wreck and I want a seat next to the track.
Once the convention starts it really doesn't matter what the candidates will accept. The only thing that matters is delegate vote.
Delegates from the states have an obligation to vote in accordance with delegate votes awarded in the primaries.. However, Trump's off again on again pledge to support the winning candidate may well inspire Trump pledged delegates to treat their pledge as Trump does his. Normally the number delegates a candidate is awarded in the primary will be the number of delegate votes he get's on the first ballot. However, this is not a normal election primary and it may not be a normal convention.
It may not matter what the canidates accept when it comes to the nomination, but you don't want a nationally televised convention where Donald Trump tells his followers to walk out.
There are two ways the party can lose the general election. They can lose the presidency or lose both the presidency and congress. The GOP fears the later with Trump heading the ticket. They may not be willing to gamble on losing the whole shooting match. Considering how unpopular Trump is with general election voters, they may be just willing to consed the presidency to maintain control in congress.
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I'm I no political wonk so I try not to get to precise with predictions. , but I love all the possible outcomes expressed here. We won't know the answer until sometime after that Tuesday in November, but I'll bet we have not heard the right scenario yet. Love the discussion.
Frankly, I think the contributors to this thread would do a better job of running the GOP than the inflated bozos doing it now.
I agree, a Ryan win as the nominee is hard to imagine, but I can't make a good case for anybody other than Trump if he wins the delegate race, even without the requisite 1237.
No, Dukakis didn't have an indictment hanging over his head, but he still managed to lose the electoral vote almost 4 to 1. I think he won about ten states, and some called the race by 4 PM. IT WAS A MASSACRE. if Hillary is at the top of the ticket who doesn't think she'll get at least 200 electoral votes.
Concur, Ryan is the GOP golden boy, and I don't think he likes the idea of smooching the ass of Trumpsters. The reason he is a good leader is because he recognizes a good play from a bad or too risky play. He understands political capital, and he knows a bad hand from a good one. I like him way to much to see him step into this pig sty the GOP has created. My opinion, he'd be wise to say no thanks. Getting on board with the GOP now as the nominee is like Buying a ticket on a boat named _itanic. The first letter may not be a T, but the odds are really high.
You are right, he didn't want the speakership, He got his ass kissed by the GOP and took it. Just don't see the guy now turning his lips towards the Trumpster asses.
