According to fivethirtyeight’s forecast, the Dems have a better chance of taking the House than...

[Pogo]

219-216 Dimms in the house
54-46 RINOS in the Senate

Thats my call.

Your Senate count can't add up to 100 unless you think both Bernie Sanders and Angus King are going to lose to Democrats.

Would be a neat trick in Vermont since Democrats don't even bother to run against Bernie no mo.

 

[Pogo]

"If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face."


538 has a liberal bias

 

[shockedcanadian]

I will say this, there is a very sizable segment of the American population that pollster NEVER poll and/or they don't understand them. I'm Caadian and I've really grown to understand this, myself a victim of the homogenuous media ideology coming from Toronto, Ottawa and Vancouver who essentially mirror NY and Cali.

I will always assume, based on the locale of the pollster who raise money, earn a living and have offices in particular areas that most polls are skewed left, in particular when speaking of Trump.

Just look at his rallies. You can say what you want, but these people are hardcore, committed, many 4th, 5th generation Americans, many from military families. When they feel they have a guy who will defend their Constitution, religion and American Values vs. China or some alt-left socialist, only God himself can stop them from voting.

Yeah some guy drinking his latte on his cold, hard designer bench in his upscale condo might receive a call and use it as an outlet to openly talk about how much he dislikes the president, but these same Trump supporters might say "no comment", "undecided", "I'm not voting" or even "I support the Democratic candidate" when they know damn well they are going out to vote GOP.

Tuesday will tell, but put it this way, if it was a Red Wave, would anyone be surprised after how inaccurate the 2016 elections were? Look at Fox News ratings they are through the roof, more viewers than CNN and MSNBC combined. Is this not telling?

How about the push to silence Conservatives on social media? To avoid any anti-liberal views in the MSM. Is this not out of fear of a Conservative wave?

What about the support from Black and Hispanics? What about Asians, a population so many just overlook, I bet many Koreans and traditional Asian and/or Christians from this group are in Trumps corner.

Again, I don't know how the vote goes, but I bet America is FAR more conservative/libertarian than the media projects it or that which any poll might reveal.

 

[RDD_1210]

Facts do have a liberal bias. Explains why cons hate facts so much.

That's why you guys never debate, you just call people racist....because the facts favor you....bwahahahahahahaahaha

I'll debate you on any topic you choose. But you're all talk and would never actually do it.

 

[blackhawk]

Pretty much everyone has been saying the House map favored the Democrats this year and the Senate the Republicans this is hardly breaking news. When one party controls both Houses of Congress and the Presidency they usually lose control of either the House or Senate in the first midterms same thing happened to Obama in 2010.

 

[ThunderKiss1965]

...Republicans have of holding on to the senate. It’s a slight 2% difference anyway.

This, of course, still means we can assume republicans will keep the senate, but us liberals can take comfort that the Dems will take the House.

Could this forecast be totally off? Yes. Trump’s election was certainly surprising to mostly everyone. I suppose I can just sleep soundly at least for tonight.

2018 Senate Forecast

If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face.

The same group that had Hillary's chance of winning the White House at 71% ?

That upset was based purely on the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million votes. Historically, only a handful of presidential winners lost the popular vote. This time there is no electoral college.

Are you trying to say that 538 didn't know how the Electoral College works ?

 

[Billy000]

...Republicans have of holding on to the senate. It’s a slight 2% difference anyway.

This, of course, still means we can assume republicans will keep the senate, but us liberals can take comfort that the Dems will take the House.

Could this forecast be totally off? Yes. Trump’s election was certainly surprising to mostly everyone. I suppose I can just sleep soundly at least for tonight.

2018 Senate Forecast

If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face.

The same group that had Hillary's chance of winning the White House at 71% ?

That upset was based purely on the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million votes. Historically, only a handful of presidential winners lost the popular vote. This time there is no electoral college.

Are you trying to say that 538 didn't know how the Electoral College works ?

No, they definitely took it into account. There was big focus on state polling in the model. If they didn’t and only used the popular vote, Hillary’s chances would have been in the high 80’s. The upset, again, was that winning presidential candidates win the popular vote in most elections.