Do you need an explanation of samples, surveys and basic statistical inference?
Edit: I gotta ask cuz if you are a "ChemEngineer", you should know this stuff.
I'll quote YOUR original statement:
'The death rate is 2.8%. "
YOU failed to specify 2.8% of WHAT. We have NO IDEA of how many people really acquire the virus. ZERO idea. It's crazy to take a test if you are asymptomatic. I earned an MBA after chemical engineering where I studied statistics. "Dude."
Now in view of your unbridled and completely unwarranted arrogance so typical of Leftists, I have zero interest in reading any more of your childish antics.
Join other Lefties like yourself on my Ignore List.
ciao brutto
Okay, I'll go over this. I think I understand where your confusion is.
The death rate isn't "Of the 328 million US population, the death rate is .063719%."
You want to divide 200,000 deaths by 328 million. Not on any planet can you mix the sample counts with the population counts.
I see where it gets complicated for you. The total population has people that haven't contracted the virus and those that have. Also, of the total population, there are those that have died and have not. Then there are those that have contracted that it and have died or not. See, those "have died or not" for the population is not the same as for the sample and you have to be careful to not mix them up. I'm guessing you kinda know the terms and mostly what they all mean but are a bit weak on how it connects.
So we start with population vs sample. The population is the total number that exist. That could be stars in the universe, grains of sand, or number of people in the total population. We call that "
P". Of that, there is some attribute that we are interested in, like colored blindness. We want to know "
p", the number that are colorblind. We can do a survey to find that but we would have to test everyone. We can summarize what that would be by the percentage, We'll use "
X" for
X=p/P Call that the attribute rate for the population or population rate.
All simple so far. You know this so I'll shorten things a bit.
The total number in the sample is
N. The number of positives is
n. So the sample will have a sample rate of
x=n/N.
The whole point of sampling is because we can't survey over 300 million people. So, we don't know what
p is. The best we can do is get
x, the sample rate.
Okay, so here is where you go astray.
You want to say that there is a systematic error in the sampling, a sample bias, because testing is done mostly on people that show symptoms. And that is undoubtedly true. But you didn't say that. And, of course, we can't say how much bias there is. People get tested for contact tracing. They get tested because they have ANY flu like symptoms. They get tested before surgeries. People don't only get tested because they have COVID. Everyone with COVID doesn't get tested. Everyone with the flu doesn't get tested. So, no idea what the systematic error is. It is somewhere between everyone only with COVID gets tested and some people with COVID get tested. Oh, so messy, but that's counting for you. Especially with over 360 million people in the population.
Then you go and divide
n, the number of sample positives by
P, the total population and claiming some new rate,
BR = n/P.
Of course, the population is much larger than the sample.
P >> N.
and the total number of positives in the sample is way lower than the number in the population.
n << p
Edit: You want to claims that
n=p. and come up with
n/P.
But
n isn't
p. n is a count of the sample and you don't know what
p is because it is from the population. It's the number you can't count cuz it's so big.
And they are two different things. (thought I should spell it out.) :Endedit
So, you try to pass off some completely absurd population b@$st rate that nobody who actually knows how counting works would do.
Nobody would divide the sample positives,
n, by the total population
P. In fact, that is why these letters are the standard usage in mathematics of basic statistics and probability. It is why mathematics and engineering goes though all the trouble to make sure that they use the standard variables. Gosh, and no one even has to tell them to. They just do it because they know what they are doing.
N and
n go together.
P and
p go together. And if your teacher sees something like
n/P, he does a spit take.
You live in a mathematical fantasy land of your own device. And if you can't get the basic math right, why should anyone believe the rest of your B.S.?
We can argue about how to estimate the variance but you don't get to make up your own counting and statistics.
Edit: I take that back. When I said, "You know this so I'll shorten things a bit."..... I really can't say that.