A Three Minute Primer On Why Florida Might Turn Blue This Election (Local Perspective)

[Man With A Plan]

HikerGuy wants to make a bet based upon who wins the election. I am happy to take him up on the bet provided he is going to be willing to accept the results of the election, either way, without question.
If he is not willing to commit to this then obviously a bet based upon an election winner is impossible and pointless.
If he loses he'll just claim he didn't really lose because the election was "fraudulent."

Quite frankly the "internet bet" is always amusing! Why bother?

 

[Man With A Plan]

There wasn't any election fraud in 2020 or 2022 and there won't be when Trump loses this year either.
He's just a born loser. It's what he does.

I don't know Mike...I've seen a lot of elections in my time and that 2020 one was weird. I can't remember ever seeing a sitting President get a lot more votes than he did the first time and still lose the race. The fact that Joe Biden got the most votes EVER made me question what took place. Sorry but Joe wasn't the most exciting candidate. Barack Obama fired up his base...Joe Biden? Not so much. Just saying... Not something you could ever prove so I've never wasted a moment trying to prove election fraud but that doesn't mean I don't suspect it took place. I think the GOP had best be on their game when it comes to monitoring vote counts or they're going to get the same kind of late results they got in 2020.

 

[MagicMike]

I don't know Mike...I've seen a lot of elections in my time and that 2020 one was weird. I can't remember ever seeing a sitting President get a lot more votes than he did the first time and still lose the race. The fact that Joe Biden got the most votes EVER made me question what took place. Sorry but Joe wasn't the most exciting candidate. Barack Obama fired up his base...Joe Biden? Not so much. Just saying... Not something you could ever prove so I've never wasted a moment trying to prove election fraud but that doesn't mean I don't suspect it took place. I think the GOP had best be on their game when it comes to monitoring vote counts or they're going to get the same kind of late results they got in 2020.

I understand your point and thank you for stating it in a thoughtful, respectful way.
Some issues with the "stolen election" argument for me have always been first, that Trump's legal team was never able to put together the evidence of any voter fraud required to make a decent case in any (except for one) of the federal cases. Every single one (except one in Pennsylvania) was dismissed for lack of evidence.
So then the next leap of logic in the conspiracy goes "that's because the judges were in on the conspiracy to steal the election and/or were biased against Trump."
Well...no. Probably not. A number of them were Trump appointees. A more logical conclusion would be that there wasn't any real evidence of any stolen election because there wasn't any stolen election.
Also don't you find it funny that the ONLY states and precincts/wards in which election fraud allegations were made by the Trump campaign in 2020 were the ones that Trump lost?
In all the places where he won those election results were "legitimate."
Uh-huh.
That's conveniently coincidental right?
And as for the numbers, we are going to see higher and higher voting numbers every year as more young, first time voters cast ballots. We also have rapidly changing demographics in our nation with non-white (U.S. citizens) sub groups overtaking Anglo's as a voting block. These sub groups tend to vote for Democrats....especially with a racially polarizing candidate like Trump.
Oh yeah, one more thing concerning the late counting of votes...and this goes right back to some of the original conspiracy theories about "fraud" and another reason why fraud on any scale that would alter national election results is very difficult to impossible.
It would have to be done at the precinct by precinct, state by state level and that kind of thing would leave a clear chain of evidence leading straight through the local precincts to the feds.
Of course team Trump tried to claim that this was EXACTLY what happened (again, conveniently only in the places he lost) but their problem was all they had were accusations....no evidence.
As for votes coming in/being counted late....that's just the nature of our voting system. Different stares have different procedures.
Trump was warned ahead of time not to be fooled by rhe "red mirage" of thinking he was winning too early because many states have rules where mail in ballots cannot be counted until the polls close in that state.
So although in person votes are counted immediately and flashed across TV screens all over the country those totals aren't accurate until all the envelopes are opened on the mail ballots and those totals are counted.
This can take all night and even days in some states.
And for some reason in person votes tend to favor Republicans while Democrats prefer mail votes.
So there it is. Late counted votes are just the nature of the beast. Especially in the future with millions and millions of new votes to process. Republicans need to get used to this and quit using it as an excuse to alledge "voter fraud."
That's just ridiculous.

 

[JohnDB]

 

[Man With A Plan]

I understand your point and thank you for stating it in a thoughtful, respectful way.
Some issues with the "stolen election" argument for me have always been first, that Trump's legal team was never able to put together the evidence of any voter fraud required to make a decent case in any (except for one) of the federal cases. Every single one (except one in Pennsylvania) was dismissed for lack of evidence.
So then the next leap of logic in the conspiracy goes "that's because the judges were in on the conspiracy to steal the election and/or were biased against Trump."
Well...no. Probably not. A number of them were Trump appointees. A more logical conclusion would be that there wasn't any real evidence of any stolen election because there wasn't any stolen election.
Also don't you find it funny that the ONLY states and precincts/wards in which election fraud allegations were made by the Trump campaign in 2020 were the ones that Trump lost?
In all the places where he won those election results were "legitimate."
Uh-huh.
That's conveniently coincidental right?
And as for the numbers, we are going to see higher and higher voting numbers every year as more young, first time voters cast ballots. We also have rapidly changing demographics in our nation with non-white (U.S. citizens) sub groups overtaking Anglo's as a voting block. These sub groups tend to vote for Democrats....especially with a racially polarizing candidate like Trump.
Oh yeah, one more thing concerning the late counting of votes...and this goes right back to some of the original conspiracy theories about "fraud" and another reason why fraud on any scale that would alter national election results is very difficult to impossible.
It would have to be done at the precinct by precinct, state by state level and that kind of thing would leave a clear chain of evidence leading straight through the local precincts to the feds.
Of course team Trump tried to claim that this was EXACTLY what happened (again, conveniently only in the places he lost) but their problem was all they had were accusations....no evidence.
As for votes coming in/being counted late....that's just the nature of our voting system. Different stares have different procedures.
Trump was warned ahead of time not to be fooled by rhe "red mirage" of thinking he was winning too early because many states have rules where mail in ballots cannot be counted until the polls close in that state.
So although in person votes are counted immediately and flashed across TV screens all over the country those totals aren't accurate until all the envelopes are opened on the mail ballots and those totals are counted.
This can take all night and even days in some states.
And for some reason in person votes tend to favor Republicans while Democrats prefer mail votes.
So there it is. Late counted votes are just the nature of the beast. Especially in the future with millions and millions of new votes to process. Republicans need to get used to this and quit using it as an excuse to alledge "voter fraud."
That's just ridiculous.

Or we could just go back to voting in person with paper ballots after presenting a valid ID and there would be zero question about voter fraud. Sometimes the simplest solution to a problem is doing it the "old fashioned" way! I know people like the convenience of mail in ballots but if anyone really cares about preventing fraud that's something we probably should be doing. Make election day a national holiday...give everyone the day off...show your ID...stand in line...and cast your vote. Keep it simple. Keep it secure.

 

[MagicMike]

Or we could just go back to voting in person with paper ballots after presenting a valid ID and there would be zero question about voter fraud. Sometimes the simplest solution to a problem is doing it the "old fashioned" way! I know people like the convenience of mail in ballots but if anyone really cares about preventing fraud that's something we probably should be doing. Make election day a national holiday...give everyone the day off...show your ID...stand in line...and cast your vote. Keep it simple. Keep it secure.

I guess this would work but election day would probably have to be several days instead of one. There are just too many voters to process in one 12 hour day these days.
Also the arguments for and against requiring voter ID are not as uni-faceted and sumplistic as some would make them out to be. I personally don't have a problem with personal ID but on the other hand there's something a little creepy and dystopian about the gub-mint demanding "show me your papers" in order to participate in democracy.

 

[Man With A Plan]

I guess this would work but election day would probably have to be several days instead of one. There are just too many voters to process in one 12 hour day these days.
Also the arguments for and against requiring voter ID are not as uni-faceted and sumplistic as some would make them out to be. I personally don't have a problem with personal ID but on the other hand there's something a little creepy and dystopian about the gub-mint demanding "show me your papers" in order to participate in democracy.

You have to "show your papers" to get on an airplane, Mike! Let's be honest...it's really not a big deal.

 

[Man With A Plan]

I guess this would work but election day would probably have to be several days instead of one. There are just too many voters to process in one 12 hour day these days.
Also the arguments for and against requiring voter ID are not as uni-faceted and sumplistic as some would make them out to be. I personally don't have a problem with personal ID but on the other hand there's something a little creepy and dystopian about the gub-mint demanding "show me your papers" in order to participate in democracy.

And someone who wouldn't show an ID in order to get on a plane...I wouldn't want ON a plane with me. The same thing should apply to voting. If you can't take the time to get a valid ID then I don't think you deserve to vote! That's just me though...

 

[Man With A Plan]

As for the logistics of it? If I were running things I'd propose a Federal law requiring so many polling places for so many voters in an area. But again...that's just me. I like to fix problems...not assign blame for why a problem can't be fixed.

 

[MagicMike]

And someone who wouldn't show an ID in order to get on a plane...I wouldn't want ON a plane with me. The same thing should apply to voting. If you can't take the time to get a valid ID then I don't think you deserve to vote! That's just me though...

I understand. A lot of people feel like that due mostly to the misinformation put out there by (mostly) racist Republicans who would prefer that only white people be allowed to vote. The truth is, instances of non citizens (illegals) voting is and always has been extremely rare.
Republicans had to invent this myth (of illegals voting) though to explain away election losses. Rather than have to admit that conservatism is on it's way to eventual extinction due to the inevitable changing demographics in our country which more and more favor liberal progressive policies. Republicans choose to continue doubling down on old racist tropes based upon Great Replacement Theory. Rather than just admit that conservative "values" is not going to be a winnable election platform in many more future races, the GOP stubbornly clings to it's story that brown-skinned "illegals" voting is the root of the problem.
Nothing could be further from the truth.

Imagine you’re an undocumented person living in the United States. You’ve come to this country seeking a better life for you and your family. Or maybe your parents brought you here seeking the same when you were a child. You spend your life living in very real fear that you might be noticed by the government and be deported — perhaps to a country you’ve never known. There’s an election coming up, the outcome of which will surely impact your life. But you know you can’t vote because you’re not a citizen. Would you risk everything — your freedom, your life in the United States, your ability to be near your family — just to cast a single ballot?

Of course you wouldn’t. It’s a federal crime for noncitizens to vote in federal elections. It’s also a crime under every state’s laws. In fact, under federal law, you could face up to five years in prison simply for registering to vote. It’s also a deportable offense for noncitizens to register or vote. And sure, people make bad decisions and commit crimes all the time. But this one is different: by committing the crime, you create a government record of your having committed it. In fact, it’s the creation of the government record — the registration form or the ballot cast — that is the crime. So, you’ve not only exposed yourself to prison time and deportation, you’ve put yourself on the government’s radar, and you’ve handed the government the evidence it needs to put you in prison or deport you. All so you could cast one vote. Who would do such a thing?

The answer is: just about no one. Every legitimate study ever done on the question shows that voting by noncitizens in state and federal elections is vanishingly rare. That includes the Brennan Center’s own study of 42 jurisdictions in the 2016 general election. We found that election officials in those places, who oversaw the tabulation of 23.5 million votes, referred only an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting for further investigation or prosecution. In other words, even suspected — not proven — noncitizen votes accounted for just 0.0001 percent of the votes cast. But you don’t have to take our word for it: the Cato Institute will also tell you, “Noncitizens don’t illegally vote in detectable numbers.”

Noncitizen Voting Isn’t Affecting State or Federal Elections — Here’s Why

States have multiple systems in place to deter noncitizen voting. Those who violate the law face prison time and deportation.

www.brennancenter.org

 

[Man With A Plan]

I understand. A lot of people feel like that due mostly to the misinformation put out there by (mostly) racist Republicans who would prefer that only white people be allowed to vote. The truth is, instances of non citizens (illegals) voting is and always has been extremely rare.
Republicans had to invent this myth (of illegals voting) though to explain away election losses. Rather than have to admit that conservatism is on it's way to eventual extinction due to the inevitable changing demographics in our country which more and more favor liberal progressive policies. Republicans choose to continue doubling down on old racist tropes based upon Great Replacement Theory. Rather than just admit that conservative "values" is not going to be a winnable election platform in many more future races, the GOP stubbornly clings to it's story that brown-skinned "illegals" voting is the root of the problem.
Nothing could be further from the truth.

Imagine you’re an undocumented person living in the United States. You’ve come to this country seeking a better life for you and your family. Or maybe your parents brought you here seeking the same when you were a child. You spend your life living in very real fear that you might be noticed by the government and be deported — perhaps to a country you’ve never known. There’s an election coming up, the outcome of which will surely impact your life. But you know you can’t vote because you’re not a citizen. Would you risk everything — your freedom, your life in the United States, your ability to be near your family — just to cast a single ballot?

Of course you wouldn’t. It’s a federal crime for noncitizens to vote in federal elections. It’s also a crime under every state’s laws. In fact, under federal law, you could face up to five years in prison simply for registering to vote. It’s also a deportable offense for noncitizens to register or vote. And sure, people make bad decisions and commit crimes all the time. But this one is different: by committing the crime, you create a government record of your having committed it. In fact, it’s the creation of the government record — the registration form or the ballot cast — that is the crime. So, you’ve not only exposed yourself to prison time and deportation, you’ve put yourself on the government’s radar, and you’ve handed the government the evidence it needs to put you in prison or deport you. All so you could cast one vote. Who would do such a thing?

The answer is: just about no one. Every legitimate study ever done on the question shows that voting by noncitizens in state and federal elections is vanishingly rare. That includes the Brennan Center’s own study of 42 jurisdictions in the 2016 general election. We found that election officials in those places, who oversaw the tabulation of 23.5 million votes, referred only an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting for further investigation or prosecution. In other words, even suspected — not proven — noncitizen votes accounted for just 0.0001 percent of the votes cast. But you don’t have to take our word for it: the Cato Institute will also tell you, “Noncitizens don’t illegally vote in detectable numbers.”

Noncitizen Voting Isn’t Affecting State or Federal Elections — Here’s Why

States have multiple systems in place to deter noncitizen voting. Those who violate the law face prison time and deportation.

www.brennancenter.org

I respectfully disagree with you, Mike! I think the left BELIEVES that if they import a new demographic of minorities from other places around the world that they will reap the votes of those imports at some point down the road but I'm of the belief that most immigrants coming here do so in search of a better life not hand outs. The Cuban-American population is a great case for that. They know what socialism/communism has done to Cuba and they want nothing to do with it. I suspect that will be the same case for many of the immigrants coming from countries that have been turned into "shit holes" by far left policy!

 

[Man With A Plan]

I understand. A lot of people feel like that due mostly to the misinformation put out there by (mostly) racist Republicans who would prefer that only white people be allowed to vote. The truth is, instances of non citizens (illegals) voting is and always has been extremely rare.
Republicans had to invent this myth (of illegals voting) though to explain away election losses. Rather than have to admit that conservatism is on it's way to eventual extinction due to the inevitable changing demographics in our country which more and more favor liberal progressive policies. Republicans choose to continue doubling down on old racist tropes based upon Great Replacement Theory. Rather than just admit that conservative "values" is not going to be a winnable election platform in many more future races, the GOP stubbornly clings to it's story that brown-skinned "illegals" voting is the root of the problem.
Nothing could be further from the truth.

Imagine you’re an undocumented person living in the United States. You’ve come to this country seeking a better life for you and your family. Or maybe your parents brought you here seeking the same when you were a child. You spend your life living in very real fear that you might be noticed by the government and be deported — perhaps to a country you’ve never known. There’s an election coming up, the outcome of which will surely impact your life. But you know you can’t vote because you’re not a citizen. Would you risk everything — your freedom, your life in the United States, your ability to be near your family — just to cast a single ballot?

Of course you wouldn’t. It’s a federal crime for noncitizens to vote in federal elections. It’s also a crime under every state’s laws. In fact, under federal law, you could face up to five years in prison simply for registering to vote. It’s also a deportable offense for noncitizens to register or vote. And sure, people make bad decisions and commit crimes all the time. But this one is different: by committing the crime, you create a government record of your having committed it. In fact, it’s the creation of the government record — the registration form or the ballot cast — that is the crime. So, you’ve not only exposed yourself to prison time and deportation, you’ve put yourself on the government’s radar, and you’ve handed the government the evidence it needs to put you in prison or deport you. All so you could cast one vote. Who would do such a thing?

The answer is: just about no one. Every legitimate study ever done on the question shows that voting by noncitizens in state and federal elections is vanishingly rare. That includes the Brennan Center’s own study of 42 jurisdictions in the 2016 general election. We found that election officials in those places, who oversaw the tabulation of 23.5 million votes, referred only an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting for further investigation or prosecution. In other words, even suspected — not proven — noncitizen votes accounted for just 0.0001 percent of the votes cast. But you don’t have to take our word for it: the Cato Institute will also tell you, “Noncitizens don’t illegally vote in detectable numbers.”

Noncitizen Voting Isn’t Affecting State or Federal Elections — Here’s Why

States have multiple systems in place to deter noncitizen voting. Those who violate the law face prison time and deportation.

www.brennancenter.org

The thing that's going to be most affected by what the Democrats have done with the border for the past three plus years is representation in the House. The number of House members is decided by the Census and that counts EVERYONE not just legal citizens! My suspicion is that many of the legal residents of a State like say California are being replaced be illegals. If that wasn't the case then California would be losing Congressional seats right and left.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I respectfully disagree with you, Mike! I think the left BELIEVES that if they import a new demographic of minorities from other places around the world that they will reap the votes of those imports at some point down the road but I'm of the belief that most immigrants coming here do so in search of a better life not hand outs. The Cuban-American population is a great case for that. They know what socialism/communism has done to Cuba and they want nothing to do with it. I suspect that will be the same case for many of the immigrants coming from countries that have been turned into "shit holes" by far left policy!

The Cuban-American population is a great case for that. They know what socialism/communism has done to Cuba and they want nothing to do with it.

That's why Cubans are the only refugees Dems are trying to limit.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Roevember is going to settle this once and for all.

Yep. Settled.
Once
And
For
All.

 

[MarcATL]

Yep. Settled.
Once
And
For
All.

Let's see how it works out.

Doesn't affect me, since I never had an abortion or ever planned on getting one, or even paying for one.

 

[JohnDB]

It was interesting to see how the Democrats completely manufactured a problem/issue, that never really affected anyone, to be a national platform they used to base the election off of.

Of course it failed....it is NOT an issue except for less than 10% of the population.

 

[Nostra]

Local Florida voter gives her insight as to why, currently blood red state of Florida, is going to go Blue this November...



If this turns out to be true, Trump will have ended up being the BEST thing to happen to Democrats in a century.

From your lips to God's ears young lady!

Hint: Roevember!

Good call, Simp.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Hint: Roevember!

Boy... that was close...