JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,776
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FOX has been notoriously inaccurate in polling, like most of the polls by major media sources.
In this one most recently on Americans for/against impeachment, they once again over sample Democrat voters and get a predictable slim 51% majority favoring impeachment.
FOX also had Clinton winning Michigan by 4% in 2016, over sampling Dems by 5%,
FOX had Clinton up by 4% in Florida but had an even sample in that poll,
in Pennsylvania I don't see a FOX poll after April but the rest had on average Clinton up almost 3%.
In Ohio, FOX doesn't keep that poll any more, but they had Trump up by 5%, he won by 8%.
In Wisconsin FOX had Clinton up by 14%, but that was in March, the average had Hillary winning by more than 6%, and Trump won that state.
Iowa polls on average showed Trump winning by 3%, but he won that state by 9.5%. FOX doesn't have polls available for that state on RealClearPolitics.
In North Carolina, FOX had Trump up by 5%, the average had him barely ahead by less than a 1% margin, but Trump won by 3.6%. FOX poll no longer available.
In Arizona, Virginia, and Nevada were all within a 3% margin.
So, if we average the accuracy of these ten swing state polls, FOX had an accuracy of being skewed 4% in favor of Democrats and usually this is due to over sampling Democrats, while national polls were off, on average by about 6% in swing states. The Trafalgar Group had the most accurate polls in swing states that they did poll, all of them within a 3% margin of error compared to actual vote results.
So when you read a FOX poll about trump, give him another 4% and if it is a major media poll, give him 5% and you are more likely to get something accurate.
In this one most recently on Americans for/against impeachment, they once again over sample Democrat voters and get a predictable slim 51% majority favoring impeachment.
FOX also had Clinton winning Michigan by 4% in 2016, over sampling Dems by 5%,
FOX had Clinton up by 4% in Florida but had an even sample in that poll,
in Pennsylvania I don't see a FOX poll after April but the rest had on average Clinton up almost 3%.
In Ohio, FOX doesn't keep that poll any more, but they had Trump up by 5%, he won by 8%.
In Wisconsin FOX had Clinton up by 14%, but that was in March, the average had Hillary winning by more than 6%, and Trump won that state.
Iowa polls on average showed Trump winning by 3%, but he won that state by 9.5%. FOX doesn't have polls available for that state on RealClearPolitics.
In North Carolina, FOX had Trump up by 5%, the average had him barely ahead by less than a 1% margin, but Trump won by 3.6%. FOX poll no longer available.
In Arizona, Virginia, and Nevada were all within a 3% margin.
So, if we average the accuracy of these ten swing state polls, FOX had an accuracy of being skewed 4% in favor of Democrats and usually this is due to over sampling Democrats, while national polls were off, on average by about 6% in swing states. The Trafalgar Group had the most accurate polls in swing states that they did poll, all of them within a 3% margin of error compared to actual vote results.
So when you read a FOX poll about trump, give him another 4% and if it is a major media poll, give him 5% and you are more likely to get something accurate.