4 Years Ago This Weekend: Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump (POLL)

[LoneLaugher]

Trafalgar has been consistently accurate, IMO, through this whole election. Variations in his results are in the single digits, while the rest of the polling bullshit swings in double digits because their methodology is erroneous. They fuck up everything from missing shy voters to over sampling Democrats, and it is at least in part deliberate because they dont bother to correct themselves.

And after Trump wins, God Willing, they will have a million excuses why they were so inept at their primary function, but Traffalgar's example of getting it right will prove them liars.

Who answers unknown numbers these days?
And if you do answer, how many are willing to say they’re voting Trump to a stranger who has your number and likely your address?
Polls are obsolete.

Perhaps one of the most curious Trombie lines.

Trump supporters are not afraid to admit that they are going to vote for the loser. They are not silent.

In one breath you claim that liberals and anti-Trumpers are weak kneed pansies. In the next you claim that we are so dangerous that you are afraid to admit that you support him.

Ridiculous.

 

[JimBowie1958]

And if you do answer, how many are willing to say they’re voting Trump to a stranger who has your number and likely your address?
Polls are obsolete.

The old methodology is obsolete. Trafalgar focuses on assuring the person being polled that their responses will be kept confidential.

Then there is the indirect approach of asking people who they think will win or if they think things are better today than four years ago. Take the focus off saying that the ORANGE MAN BAD is who you will vote for and make it about something slightly phrased differently and you get better to accurate results.

But I still dont think that they get all the shy vote, even so, which is why even Trafalgar is under measuring Trump support by about 2%, IMO.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Yeah, the guy who spent 5 decades in the swamp doing nothing but getting wealthy will solve everything!

....and they call Trump supporters stupid, lol.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Why would anyone buy a Ford? The Pinto was a terrible car and a death trap. Yeah sure they fixed it and haven’t made that mistake again. But really can anyone ever trust a Ford?

That is the argument you are making regarding the polls. They were wrong before so we can never use them again. Yet they called the midterms pretty well. And why? Because they made mistakes and learned.

Anyone can make a mistake. Anyone can get it wrong on an assumption. The trick Is to learn from those mistakes. And move on. Just as Ford fixed their cars the pollsters fixed their models. They have to otherwise they don’t get hired and they go out of business.

So thread after thread about how they were wrong in 2016 does not mean they are wrong now. Which is what I have been saying for how long? We do not know how the election is going to turn out. But dismissing the polls because they were wrong last time is foolish.

But let me ask you this question. What if the polls are right and Trump loses? Will you learn and move forward or deny the accuracy of the polls moving forward?

Please explain to the class why Trump gets 30,000 to show up at every stop and Biden gets 12 to show up.

Why are you unable to use accurate numbers when making claims like this?

Trump is getting 3-5 thousand at his rallies now. Biden is not seeking large crowds.

Be honest with yourself.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Please explain to the class why Trump gets 30,000 to show up at every stop and Biden gets 12 to show up.

Because Joe pays those 12 people and they aint cheap!

 

[citygator]

The EC was designed to protect the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority.

Actually I believe it was created because our founders thought people were stupid. They have been proven right since now the electoral college isn’t a group of electors but some sham state weighting program to elected RE swindlers.

 

[Weatherman2020]

The EC was designed to protect the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority.

Actually I believe it was created because our founders thought people were stupid. They have been proven right since now the electoral college isn’t a group of electors but some sham state weighting program to elected RE swindlers.

That’s why you’re an ignorant dumbass Leftard.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Normal, thinking people understand that 2020 is not 2016. Biden is not Clinton. Trump the unknown quantity is now Trump the known liar and failure.

The desire for Trombies to look back to that 2016 race is understandable. It was their greatest moment. An unexpected win by a slim margin in three states. The ability to survey the landscape with clear eyes is not within their reach.

Turnout is massive. The end of Trump’s political career is 9 days away. You'll have to love him as he becomes the only ex-president who is never welcome at gatherings of ex-presidents.

Yeah, the guy who spent 5 decades in the swamp doing nothing but getting wealthy will solve everything!

Nobody thinks he will solve everything. We think he will do better than Trump. He's a better man than Trump.

But it is funny that you believe that we have a lot of problems that need solving after your guy, who told us that ”Only I can fix it”, has had 4 years of leadership.

That is a clear admission of failure.

 

[citygator]

The EC was designed to protect the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority.

Actually I believe it was created because our founders thought people were stupid. They have been proven right since now the electoral college isn’t a group of electors but some sham state weighting program to elected RE swindlers.

That’s why you’re an ignorant dumbass Leftard.

Witty (sarcasm). It’s a proven indisputable fact that only the uneducated and stupid follow Trump. In fact Trump claims he won only because his followers are poorly educated.

 

[alang1216]

The EC was designed to protect the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority.

Actually I believe it was created because our founders thought people were stupid. They have been proven right since now the electoral college isn’t a group of electors but some sham state weighting program to elected RE swindlers.

That’s why you’re an ignorant dumbass Leftard.

As I recall, the EC was created because the founding fathers thought that without the internet, no one would know who the candidates were. Seems anachronistic to me.

 

[Weatherman2020]

The EC was designed to protect the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority.

Actually I believe it was created because our founders thought people were stupid. They have been proven right since now the electoral college isn’t a group of electors but some sham state weighting program to elected RE swindlers.

That’s why you’re an ignorant dumbass Leftard.

As I recall, the EC was created because the founding fathers thought that without the internet, no one would know who the candidates were. Seems anachronistic to me.

Correct. Thomas Jefferson write Ben Franklin “Until Al Gore invents the Internet we must use this system of Electoral votes”

 

[Weatherman2020]

The EC was designed to protect the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority.

Actually I believe it was created because our founders thought people were stupid. They have been proven right since now the electoral college isn’t a group of electors but some sham state weighting program to elected RE swindlers.

That’s why you’re an ignorant dumbass Leftard.

Witty (sarcasm). It’s a proven indisputable fact that only the uneducated and stupid follow Trump. In fact Trump claims he won only because his followers are poorly educated.

Sure, take a snip of a talk out of context, it’s what you Leftard Commies do.
Meanwhile:

 

[Mr Natural]

Please explain to the class why Trump gets 30,000 to show up at every stop and Biden gets 12 to show up.

For the same reason people flock to see stand up comics in person: they like to be entertained.

 

[mikegriffith1]

The fact that Biden has greatly stepped up his campaign events and is doing an ad blitz in numerous states should tell us that he knows the election is up for grabs. If his team really thought he had a 10-point or more lead, his campaign would look different right now.

But, if Biden wins, I will praying very hard that his health does not decline further and that he has the stamina and courage to stand up to the far-left elements in his party, starting with his running mate.

I am cautiously hopeful that a Biden presidency would be an improvement over the Obama presidency, especially in foreign policy.

 

[alang1216]

The EC was designed to protect the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority.

Actually I believe it was created because our founders thought people were stupid. They have been proven right since now the electoral college isn’t a group of electors but some sham state weighting program to elected RE swindlers.

That’s why you’re an ignorant dumbass Leftard.

As I recall, the EC was created because the founding fathers thought that without the internet, no one would know who the candidates were. Seems anachronistic to me.

Correct. Thomas Jefferson write Ben Franklin “Until Al Gore invents the Internet we must use this system of Electoral votes”

I do recall learning that in social studies. I guess that means it is time for EC reform and I 100% agree.

 

[TheGreatSatan]

Yes, Mrs. Clinton did remain ahead in the popular vote, winning by nearly 3 million votes.

Unfortunately, the knuckle-draggers in the little swing states saddled the nation with their orange-tinted hero.

It will be unknown for decades if the United States can recover from his incompetence.

.

Nobody gives a shit who the street crapping freaks in 5 California counties voted for.

They also legalized vote harvesting in California because Democrats are criminal scum.

 

[SavannahMann]

Why would anyone buy a Ford? The Pinto was a terrible car and a death trap. Yeah sure they fixed it and haven’t made that mistake again. But really can anyone ever trust a Ford?

That is the argument you are making regarding the polls. They were wrong before so we can never use them again. Yet they called the midterms pretty well. And why? Because they made mistakes and learned.

Anyone can make a mistake. Anyone can get it wrong on an assumption. The trick Is to learn from those mistakes. And move on. Just as Ford fixed their cars the pollsters fixed their models. They have to otherwise they don’t get hired and they go out of business.

So thread after thread about how they were wrong in 2016 does not mean they are wrong now. Which is what I have been saying for how long? We do not know how the election is going to turn out. But dismissing the polls because they were wrong last time is foolish.

But let me ask you this question. What if the polls are right and Trump loses? Will you learn and move forward or deny the accuracy of the polls moving forward?

Please explain to the class why Trump gets 30,000 to show up at every stop and Biden gets 12 to show up.

The best selling Death Metal band in history is Dethklok. However this great sales translated to 145,000 copies. The fans are nearly rabid in their support. That does not mean that Dethklok is about to surpass The Beatles.

Al Gore filled venues and lost. Getting people to show up is not proof that that will translate into votes.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

2020 Electoral College Map

www.realclearpolitics.com

Look at the Map. Right now Biden is sitting on 232 Electoral Votes. California and New York are a big part of that. We are racing to 270. That means Biden needs only 48 more.

If we go off of polling we see bad news for Trump.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

2020 Electoral College Map

www.realclearpolitics.com

350 for Biden.

Now, I am going to say unlikely. I do not think Biden is going to win Georgia, but I will not say it is impossible. Unlikely means just that. However we see the reality. Trump has a lot of states that are must wins. He can not lose many of the undecided states. If he loses Florida then the path becomes extremely difficult.

Look at this map. I not only gave Trump Florida and Georgia but Pennsylvania and Ohio and Iowa.

Again. I am not saying impossible. I am saying difficult. In the last month the Senate races have gotten really tight. That is backed up by the ads seen everywhere. I can’t watch YouTube without four ads every ten minutes. That tells me the internals are showing a close race. Trump stopping to campaign in Georgia tells me he thought the state needed shoring up.

I am not saying anyone will definitely win. I am saying we don’t know. And when it is over Trump or Biden will be the President we welcome on January 21. But nothing is over. Nothing is certain. Things may be probable, but not certain.