300 Million Reasons To Worry?

[Bonnie]

By Robert Samuelson

WASHINGTON -- As always, America is a work in progress. Any day now, the Census Bureau will announce that the U.S. population has reached 300 million, 39 years after it passed 200 million (1967) and 91 years after it hit 100 million (1915). What is more interesting and less appreciated is that, according to Census projections, it will climb to 420 million by 2050. Virtually alone among big, advanced countries, the United States is experiencing significant population growth. This is a sign of either impending calamity or enduring vitality. I'm in the vitality camp, but I admit that it often seems a close call.

Aging and immigration -- the big population trends -- are vexing. By 2030, the 65-and-over population will be about 20 per cent of the total, up from about 12 percent in 2000, says Census. That will involve staggering costs for Social Security and Medicare. Meanwhile, the Census projections assume annual immigration of about 1 million, roughly the present level. That will transform the nation's ethnic profile and could reshape its politics and culture. By 2050, Hispanic-Americans will be almost 25 percent of the total, double their share in 2000, projects Census. Asian-Americans also will double their share to 8 percent in 2050. Over the same period, non-Hispanic whites drop from 69 percent to 50 percent. Blacks stay around 13 percent to 14 percent.

Indeed, immigration has already had a profound effect. Demographer Jeffrey Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center estimates that about half of the last 100 million Americans are immigrants and their U.S.-born children. Without them, the population would now be 247 million, he says. The Hispanic-American population would total 16 million instead of 44 million. Asian-Americans would number 2 million, not 13 million.

But history suggests that America will change them more than they change us. Our national character and culture are enormously powerful and resilient. In the 1830s, the Frenchman Alexis de Tocqueville -- author of "Democracy in America'' -- identified some American traits, including rampant materialism, religious fervor (and competing denominations) and fierce patriotism. In 1830, the population was 13 million. But if he returned today, he would find the same traits despite massive changes in people and technology. We adapt, even while bedrock principles and attitudes endure.

But I could be wrong. Population growth has raised two serous concerns. One is environmental. It is that we are creating overcongested communities that will demand energy and -- particularly in the Southwest -- water that won't be there or will be there only at an exorbitant price. Population growth will cause an economic and social backlash.

Perhaps. But this is a big country, and much of it is still empty. There's plenty of coal. If Southern and Western metro areas become too crowded or costly, maybe people will return to Cleveland and Milwaukee, where water is plentiful and housing prices are low (median prices: $139,000 and $228,000). Still, population growth shows why curbing energy use -- and greenhouse gas emissions -- is so hard. The population is projected to increase 40 percent by 2050. Simply to keep total energy demand steady would require each American, on average, to make correspondingly deep cuts in present energy use.

The second concern involves immigration -- and its possibly explosive combination with aging. Up to a point, America's willingness to accept immigrants is a sign of confidence that promotes economic growth. But our careless approach to immigration is creating social problems. Most Hispanic immigrants are poor and have low skills. Their average weekly wages (now $389) are only two-thirds of the average for all workers ($577). The predominance of poor workers frustrates future assimilation. It's hard to move into the middle class. All this makes immigration seem threatening to millions of Americans, who visualize their country being overrun by an alien underclass.

The potential mixing with aging is obvious. Paying the retirement benefits of baby boomers could easily require federal tax increases of 30 percent to 50 percent. Even without immigration, younger workers may object to such steep burdens, especially because many retirees will be richer than workers. Now add the impact of immigration. A growing part of the labor force will consist of Hispanic- and Asian-Americans. Most won't have relatives on Social Security and Medicare. They may wonder why they should pay so much to support somebody else's wealthier parents. The politics could get ugly.

We might have mitigated all these problems. We might have controlled the border better and favored more highly skilled immigrants with better assimilation prospects. We might have reduced boomers' Social Security and Medicare costs by limiting benefits for younger and wealthier retirees. We might even have curbed our energy appetite. But we have done none of these things. So if population growth backfires, we will have only ourselves to blame.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/10/us_population_growth_a_sign_of.html

 

[onedomino]

I have read these disturbing stats before. “Vitality?” 420 million by 2050? Put me in the “calamity” camp. Imagine that in 40 years there will be one-third more people than now! And this will not be an increase with an even distribution across the US. There will be places like the Southwest where in 40 years there will be half again as many people as there are now. There are already too many people in Southern California, without 50 percent more. That means, for example, there will be about as many people in Southern California in 2050 than there is in all of Canada right now! It’s ridiculous and depressing. What good is such a giant boost in population? More consumers? More pressure on limited resources? More poor, uneducated immigrant workers to flip burgers?

 

[William Joyce]

What good is such a giant boost in population? More consumers? More pressure on limited resources? More poor, uneducated immigrant workers to flip burgers?

This "boost" is accompanied by a less-noticed "bust": Whites will shrink to pitiful size, and lose the nation they built. When Hispanics are the majority, you can bet your ass there won't be affirmative action for whites. You can also be damn sure it won't be anything like the America we remember. Few will speak English. It'll be more like Mexico.

 

[Nuc]

This "boost" is accompanied by a less-noticed "bust": Whites will shrink to pitiful size, and lose the nation they built. When Hispanics are the majority, you can bet your ass there won't be affirmative action for whites. You can also be damn sure it won't be anything like the America we remember. Few will speak English. It'll be more like Mexico.

That's called "Democracy", bro!

 

[Annie]

That's called "Democracy", bro!

Well as long at most of us are in the middle, I could care less what color we are.

 

[Nuc]

Well as long at most of us are in the middle, I could care less what color we are.

America is becoming stratified. There is no "American culture". There are many different sub cultures living alongside each other or on top of each other.

 

[Annie]

America is becoming stratified. There is no "American culture". There are many different sub cultures living alongside each other or on top of each other.

Which is not good. The melting pot was good, for many years, I doubt we'll get that back. The salad method is not working. My guess, over time, Islam will win here. No holding us together. Prots hate everyone. Jews are hated by all. Islamics say they hate everyone, no one believes them.

 

[Nuc]

Which is not good. The melting pot was good, for many years, I doubt we'll get that back. The salad method is not working. My guess, over time, Islam will win here. No holding us together. Prots hate everyone. Jews are hated by all. Islamics say they hate everyone, no one believes them.

Muslims are taking over everywhere, slowly but surely. They are systematic, single minded and patient. They are intentionally colonizing every country they can get into and have no qualms about exploiting the weaknesses of the host countries. I think they may not get America, but who cares if they have every other place?

 

[onedomino]

Which is not good. The melting pot was good, for many years, I doubt we'll get that back. The salad method is not working. My guess, over time, Islam will win here. No holding us together. Prots hate everyone. Jews are hated by all. Islamics say they hate everyone, no one believes them.

I am not so sure that the melting pot is dead or if it ever really existed in the first place. For many past generations towns within towns were built, e.g., the Italian neighborhoods in Buffalo, the Irish neighborhoods in Boston, ect. Can you elaborate on the last sentence quoted above? And also, why will "Islam win here?" You mean that everywhere will become like the Detroit suburbs? Just another town within a town, in my opinion.

 

[Dr Grump]

Islam will have little or no affect on western civilisation as a whole. There'll be the odd incident highlighted, but they are not even close to taking us over. As for William Joyce's "speaking Spanish" scenario, what rabid racists like him tend to forget is a lot of those folk love the rights the US gives them just as much as he does and will do what it takes to keep the country they have moved to in the same state it has been when they arrived...

 

[manu1959]

America is becoming stratified. There is no "American culture". There are many different sub cultures living alongside each other or on top of each other.

please describe american culture to me.

 

[nt250]

That's called "Democracy", bro!

And that's exactly why the United States is not a democracy.

 

[manu1959]

And that's exactly why the United States is not a democracy.

ok what is it then.....just name another country to keep it easy

 

[Annie]

Islam will have little or no affect on western civilisation as a whole. There'll be the odd incident highlighted, but they are not even close to taking us over. As for William Joyce's "speaking Spanish" scenario, what rabid racists like him tend to forget is a lot of those folk love the rights the US gives them just as much as he does and will do what it takes to keep the country they have moved to in the same state it has been when they arrived...

Islam has already had a major impact on the West, you just refuse to acknowledge it. See France, Netherlands, Britain, parts of US. I say, sit back and enjoy the ride for those that are for this.

For myself, I'd rather be beheaded, but heh, that's me.

 

[nt250]

ok what is it then.....just name another country to keep it easy

The United States is a representiative republic. It's not a democracy.

Ever heard of the Bill Of Rights? Might get you started.

 

[Annie]

The United States is a representiative republic. It's not a democracy.

Ever heard of the Bill Of Rights? Might get you started.

actually it's a federal republic with democratic features. But who's picky?

 

[nt250]

actually it's a federal republic with democratic features. But who's picky?

The states have democratic features and even then you have to get down to the town level to see any kind of true democracy. Even then we still have the courts to prevent laws being passed that are unconstitutional at the federal level.

It's a pretty good system. So far. :usa:

 

[Dr Grump]

Islam has already had a major impact on the West, you just refuse to acknowledge it. See France, Netherlands, Britain, parts of US. I say, sit back and enjoy the ride for those that are for this.

For myself, I'd rather be beheaded, but heh, that's me.

I have been to those countries. There are Muslims there. They have had little or no impact on those countrie's cultures. Sure, the Muslims have brought parts of their culture with them from their home countries, but there have been no significant changes in law that affect those people in those countries. If you can show me any measurable way that these countries have affect the everyday life of the non-Muslim citizens, be my guest....

 

[Nuc]

I have been to those countries. There are Muslims there. They have had little or no impact on those countrie's cultures. Sure, the Muslims have brought parts of their culture with them from their home countries, but there have been no significant changes in law that affect those people in those countries. If you can show me any measurable way that these countries have affect the everyday life of the non-Muslim citizens, be my guest....

Ever hear of Theo Van Gogh?

 

[Dr Grump]

Ever hear of Theo Van Gogh?

Sure. But he is but one person. If a Scientologist kills a Bhuddist in Thailand, is Thailand now on the run from Scientologists? There will be examples like Van Gogh, but they are not the norm. Far from it. A more measurable example would be to look up the number of homicides in the Netherlands for that year and see how many were Muslims killing non-Muslims and whether those murders were politically/religiously motivated. Get a dozen or so of those a year and I think you've got a problem. If not, hardly worth getting alarmist about. BTW, I am against religion, but Islam more so than most. A disgustingly misogynistic religion invented to give a free pass to men who treat women like shit - just so we're clear on where I stand.