Hummmm.....
You do realize that Trump was POTUS for ALL of 2020.
So No, 2020 didn't bring us Biden, as you claim.
OPEC+, brokered by trump, a 2 YEAR agreement, brought us $5 gas.
Not Biden.
Key takeaway
OPEC+ didn’t just “affect” production—it defined it.
Nearly every monthly change in your dataset corresponds to:
- quota changes
- compliance levels
- or new cut agreements
How did OPEC+ deal affect gas prices in the USA?
The
OPEC+ deal had a
clear but indirect impact on U.S. gasoline prices—by controlling global oil supply, it influenced crude oil prices, which then flowed through to what Americans pay at the pump.
Here’s how that played out from 2020–2023:
How oil production → U.S. gas prices works
- Crude oil = ~50–60% of gasoline cost
- OPEC+ controls a large share of global supply
When OPEC+ cuts production → oil prices rise → gas prices rise (and vice versa)

Timeline: OPEC+ decisions vs U.S. gas prices
2020 (COVID crash + record cuts)
- OPEC+ cut ~9.7 million barrels/day
- But demand collapsed even more

Result:
- Oil prices crashed (even briefly negative)
- U.S. gas prices fell to ~$2.00/gal or lower

OPEC+ cuts
softened the crash, but couldn’t prevent low prices
2021 (controlled supply = rising prices)
- OPEC+ slowly increased production (tight supply)

Result:
- Oil prices climbed steadily
- U.S. gas prices rose from ~$2.25 → $3.30/gal

OPEC+ restraint =
gradual price increase
2022 (tight supply + geopolitical shock)
- OPEC+ was already limiting output
- Then the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted markets

Result:
- Oil spiked above $120/barrel
- U.S. gas prices hit record highs:
- ~$5.00/gal (June 2022 peak)

OPEC+ not increasing supply fast enough
amplified the spike
Late 2022 (cuts again)
- OPEC+ cut ~2 mb/d in October

Effect:
- Helped keep oil prices elevated
- Slowed decline in gas prices
2023 (continued cuts = price support)
- Additional voluntary cuts (~3+ mb/d)

Result:
- Gas prices fluctuated ~$3.20–$4.00/gal
- Stayed higher than pre-COVID norms

OPEC+ cuts
prevented prices from falling further
Big picture impact on U.S. gas prices
What OPEC+ DID
- Prevented oil from staying cheap after 2020
- Contributed to 2021–2022 price surge
- Supported higher price floor in 2023
What OPEC+ DID NOT control alone
U.S. gas prices also depend on:
- Domestic refining capacity
- Seasonal demand (summer spikes)
- U.S. shale production
- Geopolitics (like Ukraine war)
Simple cause-and-effect
OPEC+ cuts supply
↓
Global oil prices rise
↓
U.S. gasoline prices increase
Key takeaway
OPEC+ is one of the biggest external drivers of U.S. gas prices.
- It doesn’t set gas prices directly
- But by controlling global oil supply, it strongly influences the baseline price Americans pay