2016 Hurricane Season

[Billy_Bob]

Is the calm before the storms ending?

And then, he provides this:

Story w/chart @ Atlantic hurricanes: Is the calm before the storms ending? - ImaGeo

There is very little ocean surface heat, strong wind shear, and an almost flat temperature gradient.. I will be surprised to see any storm make more than cat 1 and that is a real if, in and of itself, due to wind shear and mid to upper level atmospheric cooling.

A lot would have to change for this season to change drastically. Ocean flows just don't seem to be complying with the alarmist hopes and dreams..

 

[Billy_Bob]

"Now scientists of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, together with a colleague from Bergen (Norway), were able to demonstrate for the first time that natural fluctuations in water temperatures of the Pacific – which occur on decadal timescales – are directly related to the temperature of the tropical tropopause. “It has long been thought that human influences already affected the tropopause. However, it seems that natural variability is still the dominating factor,” says Dr. Wuke Wang from GEOMAR, lead author of the study just published in the international journal Scientific Reports."

This is one reason we do not have big Cyclonic storms in the Pacific or the Atlantic. The tropopause is a major heat change area and without a temp gradient it will not spawn the down draft necessary for storm creation and strengthening. Add to that wind shear and all bets are off.

Study finds: Middle atmosphere temperature in sync with the ocean PDO

The paper puts the kibosh to man caused every thing.. So much for AGW..

 

[flacaltenn]

So I'm just imagining all of these large thunderstorms five hundred miles away from any dry line?

Fascinating. You all better tell the weather forecasters they're not really there.

What a dummy. During formation of a hurricane, the convection gets going with thunderstorm activity which requires a dry line to accelerate it. Once the hurricane FORMS and has an EYE --- the "dry line" is carried in the eye itself as cooler drier air is pulled down into the low pressure core. No longer requires a variation in air moisture. Generates it own variation.. Not a cloud in the sky in the eye of a hurricane. Pretty "moisture free".

500 miles? Hell, large majority of Atlantic Hurricane formation is right off the coast of the freaking Sahara Desert. Where hot DRY air is readily available.. Same type off zonal effect happens right off the coast of the Baja Desert in Mexico. Or the same condition (Ct/Mt convergence) can enhance generation of tropical storms close into the Gulf shore or Eastern shore of Florida. Must have seem like magic to you before huh ??? --- Squidward...

You can have a thunderstorm without a front or Ct/Mt convergence to generate it. Happens every afternoon in Florida and Gulf Coast. But these storms don't have rotational characteristics of a Super Cell or tornadic storm or hurricane.

 

[mamooth]

Hell, large majority of Atlantic Hurricane formation is right off the coast of the freaking Sahara Desert. Where hot DRY air is readily available..

The weather forecasters disagree with you, and say that dry dusty air from Africa inhibits hurricane formation.

Atlantic tropical drought may end in Caribbean Sea this week
---
"Weak disturbances have been moving westward from Africa over the past couple of months," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

"Up to this point, there has been too much dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert for these systems to develop," Kottlowski said, adding that dry air is common during June and July over much of the Atlantic.
---

NASA disagrees with you as well.

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/files/NASA_SOP_2007_Saharan_dust_versus_Atlantic_hurricanes.pdf
---
"We think a dust storm has three main components that can suppress a hurricane,” Dunion continued. “One, it’s got super-dry air. Hurricanes don’t like dry air in the middle parts of the atmosphere, and that’s exactly what the Saharan Air Layer has. A Saharan dust storm also has a very strong surge of air embedded within it, called the mid level easterly jet, that can rip a storm apart that’s trying to develop. We call that vertical wind shear. And then the third piece is all this dust."

 

[flacaltenn]

Hell, large majority of Atlantic Hurricane formation is right off the coast of the freaking Sahara Desert. Where hot DRY air is readily available..

The weather forecasters disagree with you, and say that dry dusty air from Africa inhibits hurricane formation.

Atlantic tropical drought may end in Caribbean Sea this week
---
"Weak disturbances have been moving westward from Africa over the past couple of months," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

"Up to this point, there has been too much dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert for these systems to develop," Kottlowski said, adding that dry air is common during June and July over much of the Atlantic.
---

NASA disagrees with you as well.

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/files/NASA_SOP_2007_Saharan_dust_versus_Atlantic_hurricanes.pdf
---
"We think a dust storm has three main components that can suppress a hurricane,” Dunion continued. “One, it’s got super-dry air. Hurricanes don’t like dry air in the middle parts of the atmosphere, and that’s exactly what the Saharan Air Layer has. A Saharan dust storm also has a very strong surge of air embedded within it, called the mid level easterly jet, that can rip a storm apart that’s trying to develop. We call that vertical wind shear. And then the third piece is all this dust."

Yeah.. That's correct. When SAL DOMINATES -- nothing happens. As with temperature and baro pressure -- it's the GRADIENTS that matter to creating weather. For the formation of SEVERE storms -- the humidity gradient is a major factor.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Hell, large majority of Atlantic Hurricane formation is right off the coast of the freaking Sahara Desert. Where hot DRY air is readily available..

The weather forecasters disagree with you, and say that dry dusty air from Africa inhibits hurricane formation.

Atlantic tropical drought may end in Caribbean Sea this week
---
"Weak disturbances have been moving westward from Africa over the past couple of months," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

"Up to this point, there has been too much dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert for these systems to develop," Kottlowski said, adding that dry air is common during June and July over much of the Atlantic.
---

NASA disagrees with you as well.

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/files/NASA_SOP_2007_Saharan_dust_versus_Atlantic_hurricanes.pdf
---
"We think a dust storm has three main components that can suppress a hurricane,” Dunion continued. “One, it’s got super-dry air. Hurricanes don’t like dry air in the middle parts of the atmosphere, and that’s exactly what the Saharan Air Layer has. A Saharan dust storm also has a very strong surge of air embedded within it, called the mid level easterly jet, that can rip a storm apart that’s trying to develop. We call that vertical wind shear. And then the third piece is all this dust."

Does any one here want to know why those "weak disturbances" have not grown to be big ones?

Sangeltooth, you don't have a dam clue about what it is that you post. They just explained what I have been saying about why they have not formed and why they will not be major formations. You just can not grasp the concepts they are telling you. Get your dam AGW agenda out of your mind and start using cognitive thought.

 

[Crick]

There is very little ocean surface heat, strong wind shear, and an almost flat temperature gradient.. I will be surprised to see any storm make more than cat 1 and that is a real if, in and of itself, due to wind shear and mid to upper level atmospheric cooling.

A lot would have to change for this season to change drastically. Ocean flows just don't seem to be complying with the alarmist hopes and dreams..

Very little ocean heat? What the fuck is this?

The entire Gulf is very close to 90 fucking degrees.

For the metrically impaired:
15C=59F
20C=68F
25C=77F
30C=86F
35C=95F

 

[Billy_Bob]

There is very little ocean surface heat, strong wind shear, and an almost flat temperature gradient.. I will be surprised to see any storm make more than cat 1 and that is a real if, in and of itself, due to wind shear and mid to upper level atmospheric cooling.

A lot would have to change for this season to change drastically. Ocean flows just don't seem to be complying with the alarmist hopes and dreams..

Very little ocean heat? What the fuck is this?

The entire Gulf is very close to 90 fucking degrees.

For the metrically impaired:
15C=59F
20C=68F
25C=77F
30C=86F
35C=95F

LOL You don't have the slightest clue what a gradient is...

 

[Billy_Bob]

Current modeling has two low pressure centers going straight west and barley making cat 1 due to wind shear and lack of temperature gradient. Just 5 models show these growing to cat 1. The rest (25 models) show these lows being dismantled before reaching cat 1.

Why would networks and NOAA just show us the models going straight west and not show us the higher probability they will simply disperse?

 

[LaDexter]

All this "record warm ocean temp" BS combines to form the longest drought on record of Cat 3 strikes hitting the US coast, a 200 year record...

LOL!!!

Are 'canes now "allergic" to "record warm ocean temps," or are the warmers FUDGING the ocean temps??

Hint - Antarctic Sea Ice has set 5 all time record HIGHS since O took office

 

[Crick]

There is very little ocean surface heat, strong wind shear, and an almost flat temperature gradient.. I will be surprised to see any storm make more than cat 1 and that is a real if, in and of itself, due to wind shear and mid to upper level atmospheric cooling.

A lot would have to change for this season to change drastically. Ocean flows just don't seem to be complying with the alarmist hopes and dreams..

Very little ocean heat? What the fuck is this?

The entire Gulf is very close to 90 fucking degrees.

For the metrically impaired:
15C=59F
20C=68F
25C=77F
30C=86F
35C=95F

LOL You don't have the slightest clue what a gradient is...

I know what a gradient is.

Explain your statement "There is very little ocean surface heat"

 

[Crick]

Current modeling has two low pressure centers going straight west and barley making cat 1 due to wind shear and lack of temperature gradient. Just 5 models show these growing to cat 1. The rest (25 models) show these lows being dismantled before reaching cat 1.

Why would networks and NOAA just show us the models going straight west and not show us the higher probability they will simply disperse?

Why don't you show us such a model? All storms eventually disperse. Models show tracks for movement of system centers. A low pressure system can have a center just as easily as a Cat 5 hurricane.

Weather.com says

Invest 97-L is churning west through the Caribbean and is likely to become Earl early this week. Here are four things to know about this system.

1. Threat to U.S. Is Low

At this time, it appears the chance of this system making a direct impact on the U.S. is low.

The steering will be influenced by the clockwise wind flow around an area of upper-level high pressure over the south-central U.S. That should keep the system squashed to the south, most likely pushing it into the Yucatan Peninsula, and possibly northeast Mexico thereafter.

That said, this is still several days away, so we'll monitor for any possible changes to this thinking.

We should also note that this system could bring a surge of moisture into south Texas, enhancing rainfall there even with the center of it staying well south. Rip currents could also be a potential threat on the Gulf Coast towards next weekend.

 

[Billy_Bob]

97L gained just enough strength to be classified a hurricane and then was ripped apart and is now a tropical depression again. Its name sake lasted just 6 hours... But it will be called Earl until it totally dissipates.. should send some rain into Arizona, New Mexico and states above..

To much wind shear and too little surface heat gradient.

 

[Crick]

And the sea surface temperature in the Gulf and western Atlantic? Still think its cold?

 

[skookerasbil]

what hurricanes?

Not sure they even exist in the Atlantic??!!!

But wait.......in the next couple of years, we'll have a nice sized hurricane hit the southeast US and cause some nice damage........and the k00k will say in unison, "We told you so!!" It'll be the first in over a decade.......and actually what scientists would say is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overdue. But the nutters aid 10 years ago, size and frequency of hurricanes were about to be off the hook.

They took the hail mary pass gheyness route and hoped the weather would conform. It didn't...........and now the fools are dismissing that they ever said it.

Fakes all............just sorry ass human beings!!

 

[skookerasbil]

nobody on the face of the earth knows dick about hurriccanes..........for today..........tomorrow.........or next year. If they make a prediction and it is right, head straight to the local gambling resort with them!!

 

[Crick]

Billy Boob, still think the Gulf and Western Atlantic are cold?

 

[LaDexter]

What is undeniable is that the Tippys say the oceans are record warm.... while we are having a record drought of 'canes in the Atlantic, and the Antarctic sea ice has set 5 all time record highs since O took office.

WARMING OCEANS MY ASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[yiostheoy]

From a nontechnical perspective, it just seems like a lite season for hurricanes so far.

FLACATENN's theory of vertical gradients strikes me as interesting.

My understanding of the birth of a hurricane is that moist jungle air over the tropics rises and moves over the Atlantic and then gathers more moisture from the ocean until it is so loaded that it must drop the rains.

In the meantime the coriolis effect makes it spin and creates winds from the shear.

If the vertical gradient does not allow the moisture to rise, then no hurricane. I get that.

 

[Crick]

Wow... no, that is not how hurricanes form. Why don't you just look it up. Try Wikipedia.