Jessica's election predictions

[Hurricanelover]

As of 9-1 the current thinking is Harris will probably win.
3.5% nation popular vote win is my estimation based on serious polling state level polling, lower office polling and favorability. My ev is 293 for Harris, 245 for Trump!
This gives Harris: predicted real vote when it is said and done!
.7% win in Pa(2% poll wise comparably to 2016-2020).
2.5% win in Michigan(5% pollwise)
.8% win in Wis(3% pollwise)
.1% win in Ga
Neb second will be 2.5% Harris
Maine will likely give all its votes to Harris
Arizona will be Trump by .2%.
North Carolina will be Trump be .5%

The lower offices for senate and house are literal blow outs in these three states. Some showing their senate candidate up by 10-12%. Very healthy down ticket! The 2nd district of neb is 5% ahead in the polls and even the senate race is within 1%. Maine 2nd is very close if not polling ahead for Harris. Lets be honest Arizona if it was only on lower office support would likely go Harris too but I am choosing to be conservative because of the polls.

As it is closer to the election and polls have greatly strengthen in Harris favor I'll predict a 70% chance of her being elected the 47th president of the United states!

 

[Hurricanelover]

As of 9-16 the current thinking is Harris will likely win.
4% national popular vote win is my estimation based on serious polling state level polling, lower office polling and favorability. My ev is 293 for Harris, 245 for Trump!
This gives Harris: predicted real vote when it is said and done!
1.2% Harris win in Pa.
2.5% Harris win in Michigan
1.5% Harris win in Wis
1.2% Harris win in Nevada
.2% Trump win in Ga
Neb second will be 2.5% Harris
Maine will likely give all its votes to Harris
Arizona will be Trump by .3%.
North Carolina will be Trump be .5%

Harris has strengthen nationally and mostly in the rust belt state of wis, mi and pa. Her chances of winning is now 75%. Arizonia, Ga and Nc on the otherhand slips away from her and will likely be Trumps.

 

[carloz]

based on current data

And why should someone listen to some anon guy on the internet?

 

[Hurricanelover]

Looking at the national top ends over the past 2 days it is 5, 6, 7 and 4. One could argue that it is closer to 4.5-5% nationally. This would literally lock in the rust belt and probably ga, az, and nc. Put the state level doesn't quite support it so I'll keep it conservative as of now.

 

[Hurricanelover]

As of 9-16 the current thinking is Harris will likely win.
4% national popular vote win is my estimation based on serious polling state level polling, lower office polling and favorability. My ev is 293 for Harris, 245 for Trump!
This gives Harris: predicted real vote when it is said and done!
1.2% Harris win in Pa.
2.5% Harris win in Michigan
1.5% Harris win in Wis
1.2% Harris win in Nevada
.2% Trump win in Ga
Neb second will be 2.5% Harris
Maine will likely give all its votes to Harris
Arizona will be Trump by .3%.
North Carolina will be Trump be .5%

Harris has strengthen nationally and mostly in the rust belt state of wis, mi and pa. Her chances of winning is now 75%. Arizonia, Ga and Nc on the otherhand slips away from her and will likely be Trumps.

Moving NC to a tie. 50/50.
Moving chances up to 80% for Harris.

 

[Hurricanelover]

As of 9-28 the current thinking is Harris will most likley win.
3.2% national popular vote win is my estimation based on serious polling, state level polling, lower office polling and favorability. My ev is 292 for Harris, 246 for Trump!
This gives Harris: predicted real vote when it is said and done!
.9% Harris win in Pa.
2.1% Harris win in Michigan
1.2% Harris win in Wis
1% Harris win in Nevada
.5% Trump win in Ga
Neb second will be 4.5% Harris
Main will split between Harris and Trump.
Arizona will be Trump by .6%.
North Carolina .05% harris!

65% chance of Harris winning the election. I am a little concern because the early vote in Va is a good clip lower for Harris compared to Biden 2020. Nytimes, cnn, fox and other such polls are between tied to +3 which is extremely weak. These are b and a polls. I think they're fucked as Harris isn't +3 with 18-30 but more like 20 to 30 points up in this group and certainly isn't losing 54% of hispanics to Trump. Based on the lower portion of the ticket winning by 4-12% in the senate races and the house winning neb-2 by +10, and 5-6 other democrats winning over incum nationwide suggest support for democrats is quite strong. Congressional ballot is also 2-5% for democrats which suggest a majority house and so being so also suggest a great deal of strength for Harris in Pa, Mich and Wis. I think she'll win but it might be close.

 

[Hurricanelover]

I will do this every saturday night for tonight and the last 3 ahead for the states.

My thinking based on polls, early vote data and lower office portion of the polls is....
Arizona 2 to 3 points for Trump. I think the state is probably gone for Harris. The earlier data is extremely republican and this is one of the few states that have party, age, sex and race. Very bad....Worried about the hispanic vote.

Nevada...+1 for Harris. I feel the same way about Nevada but it is far further to the left and has been so for the past 20 years. Far more pro union compared to Arizona. I think Harris will win it. But will be close.

Wis...+1.5 for Harris. Polls that are of quality mostly support Harris winning it and there's some signs in the early vote to support this idea.

Mi...2.5 for Harris. Early vote is very favorable out of Detroit. Record favorability and turnout for the democrats. IF this keeps up there is almost no question of Harris pulling up the state. +8 percent more female vote compared to the male vote!

Pa... 1.2% for Harris. Most early vote data is similar to Mi but the state is a good part more conservative outside the major cities. Major A and B rated polls mostly support Harris winning it.

Nc .1 Harris--Governor race will likely pull this race +1 towards Harris.
Ga 1 Trump
Florida 2.5 Trump

We will continue to watch the early vote come in!

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Nobody cares

 

[Hurricanelover]

Looks good in Pa and Michigan but everywhere else it sucks ass.

There isn't honestly enough data outside of the polls in wis to make a huge prediction based on early data as they have open primary system. It is far behind 2020 and it doesn't have party, sex, age or anything to clue us in to the state of the race unlike the two above states. Only return rates and number in the counties...Mixed bag there in my opinion. The polls for the president and senate do favor harris and are in line to 2020 for the most part.

Nevada, Arizona and possibly Ga are gone for harris. These three states let me just say are about as ugly as i've ever seen and I've watched elections for decades! Nevada might well go Trump for fucks sake. Arizona is 13k + republican compared to tens of thousands of democratic votes over republicans in 2020 at this point. I sense the hispanic vote is shifting against Harris. Most of the country outside of the rust belt appears to be 3-4% right of 2020.

I hate to say it but it will come down to the rust belt holding and wis following the leader of pa and mi in turn out of woman and youth....In line with the polling and decent return out of the wow counties so far. I'd still give it to harris as all she needs is the rust belt but it will be by the hairs of her asshole.

Arizona reminds me of 2012 and Nevada 2004.

 

[Hurricanelover]

I'll be making my final prediction at the two week mark tuesday the 22nd.

But here is my current thinking of the vote in the 7 swing state as of friday based on early vote.
Pa .9% Harris
Mi 1.4% Harris
Wis .5% Harris
Nc 1.2% Trump
Ga 2.5% Trump
Nv .5% Harris
Az 3% Trump

She'll get 276 elv's.

It is fairly likely that this will maintain for Tuesday unless I see something very bad in the Nevada data...I am also observing the early vote for NC so it isn't impossible that moves the other way by that time....I am 95% sure about the rest.

 

[Hurricanelover]

Harris will edge it out but will be close! Final prediction....
She has a 70% chance of being elected the 47th president of the United states. Wisconsin is the tipping point state! Based on the early vote out of Pa and mi I am locking them in for Harris....85% and 90% chance of victory for her. 325 thousand firewall and will likely go up to 450-500k by election day will allow for her to win Pa without doubt. Philly has extremely similar to 2020-2022 turn out that is a very good sign for democrats. Michigan has a 13% female advantage similar to 2022 and 2020 that won the state, so it has a healthy chance of going Harris. Detroit is coming out strong for Harris with 60k votes already banked in. Both cities suggest that the black vote is coming out big time and will be there unlike 2016.

The lower offices like senate are very likely to go to the democrats by 5-8% so this will also allows for some extra pull for Harris at the top of the ticket. All 3 of the rust belt are also democratic governors and the support system is to Harris advantage....Quality polls also support 1-2% for both states....

Pa .8% for final vote
Mi 1.2% for Final vote

Wisconsin is likely Harris by 65%. Support for her victory is quality A and B polls showing anywhere 1-4% victories for Harris. Senate and governor being democratic as is the case with Mi and Pa. Other support is Iowa polls just to the south showing 4-7% which is 6-10% to the left of 2016 and 2020 popular vote. Reliable polls! This is supported by early vote so far being fairly pro-democratic. Same thing to a very more respectable extent is the case in Nebraska with house and even a senate race showing real odds of going democratic! Polls show the house race 5-10% in favor, while the senate race is a toss up and could grant the democratic party some chance at holding the senate. Early vote for the 2nd district also lends support with the 2nd so far having and maintaining 4.8k advantage for democrats. All support shows what is occurring in the south isn't affecting the rust belt or Midwestern states...Which shows serious support for a clean sweep of the three rust belt state.
I think Harris/Bidens support for unions, industry and workers have granted them support for another 4 years.

Nevada is looking shaky and only has a 50% chance of going Harris! So a flip of the cards based on possible lost of the hispanic vote over the Immigrant issue. Why? Very small mail vote in Nevada advantage and a nearly 2-1 advantage to the republicans for the in person vote. This is also occurring in Arizona to the south! For that state it is 30k advantage to the republicans so far as we hit 500k votes. Of course, the non-party voters tend to lean democrat and all that but I suspect that Arizona is gone. All polls that match reality also suggest strength in the rust belt while she loses her ass in the sunbelt....

Nevada will probably be a slight win but will be a very long night and probably a pretty crappy next day waiting for it....SO .1-.25% for Harris.

Arizona will go Trump by 3% and revert back to 2016-2012 levels.

Georgia will be very close but Trump will llikely win it! Black support is down compared to 2020 and 2022 presidential and senate races. Lets just say 30% black vote is now 27% black vote and youth vote is way down also. It is likely to be a far older and whiter group of voters that should hand the race to Trump. Quality polls also suggest 1-3% win for Donald Trump. Not only this but there isn't any down ticket races like in 2020 to pull the top up so that is part of the reason for the lack of black and youth vote.

Leans Trump or 1.5%

North Carolina. This is like Nevada a 50/50 state! The republican choice for Governor certainly makes it more likely but the edge is still slightly with Trump...The fact taht she has a decent chance of using the anvil of the perve to pull up support for her, the governship gives me hope that she has a better chance then anywhere else. Right now I just aint handing it to her! But don't be shocked.

Tie likely. Pure tossup!


Electoral votes for Vp Harris 276....~3.5 to 4 million votes or 2.8% victory in the popular vote.