2014 battle for control of the US Senate

[MarcATL]

Considering the current political climate and RW rhetoric, the fact that the Republicans are predicted to barely win that doesn't sit well for their standing with the American People.

That's good news.

I'm personally hopeful for a Democratic upset here in GA. I'm really optimistic.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Considering the current political climate and RW rhetoric, the fact that the Republicans are predicted to barely win that doesn't sit well for their standing with the American People.

That's good news.

I'm personally hopeful for a Democratic upset here in GA. I'm really optimistic.

Either GA or KY works for an upset but it will depend upon participation. The demographics in KY might just pull it off for the Dems. In GA I suspect that they are going to be outspent. Not that spending always buys an election. Sometimes no amount of spending can make up for the candidates shortcomings.

 

[JoeB131]

I think the worst the GOP can do is 50 and may win as many as 54.

Normal Americans are willing to look at candidates not like Akins, Mourdouch, Angle, O'Donnell, etc.

If we wish take the presidency from the Dems in 2016, we will have to cut a meaningful deal on immigration sometime in 2015.

I agree, but I don't see the GOP budging much on immigration. Which is going to hurt them in 2016.

Well, that plus as of right now, they don't have any decent candidates.

Blocking on immigration will kill the GOP in the Latino vote in 2016.

Obama took 71% of the Latino vote in 2012. Hillary may get up to 80%, if the GOP does not propose something meaningful in the way of immigration reform.

Plus, in the Senate, the GOP will have to defend more seats than the DEMS in that cycle.


This will be the Senate map for 2016:

24 GOP incumbents, 10 DEM incumbents, if the 2014 races in HI, OK special and SC special go as we think they will go.

In other words, the schlamazel that the DEMS are currently in for the 2014 Senate elections is the same kind of schlamazel that the GOP will face in 2016. It's gravity: what comes up, must come down.

I don't buy that the GOP has to do immigration reform. I think that would hurt them as much as it helps them. It could even trigger a third party.

 

[Nyvin]

the TPs will not control the caucus after January thank God: they have had to many loses and will have no more than 11 seats in the house

JB is safe and there will be no impeachment; the Senate Republican leadership have told the GOP House leadership they will listen to the indictment and then acquit BHO.

11 seats in the house??? Try 70+

 

[JakeStarkey]

the TPs will not control the caucus after January thank God: they have had to many loses and will have no more than 11 seats in the house

JB is safe and there will be no impeachment; the Senate Republican leadership have told the GOP House leadership they will listen to the indictment and then acquit BHO.

11 seats in the house??? Try 70+

You had 70 in 2011, 35 in 2013, and will have 11 in 2015.

Mike Lee for instance cozied with TeaPs in the past but now is being nice to Dems in Utah because of his vulnerability in 2016.

 

[BreezeWood]

maybe it will sink in by Nov., if Americans really care about the economy they will keep the Democrats in the Senate.

the Rs will fall short of their goal.

.

 

[Samson]

I think the worst the GOP can do is 50 and may win as many as 54.

Normal Americans are willing to look at candidates not like Akins, Mourdouch, Angle, O'Donnell, etc.

If we wish take the presidency from the Dems in 2016, we will have to cut a meaningful deal on immigration sometime in 2015.

I agree, but I don't see the GOP budging much on immigration. Which is going to hurt them in 2016.

Well, that plus as of right now, they don't have any decent candidates.

Blocking on immigration will kill the GOP in the Latino vote in 2016.

Obama took 71% of the Latino vote in 2012. Hillary may get up to 80%, if the GOP does not propose something meaningful in the way of immigration reform.

Plus, in the Senate, the GOP will have to defend more seats than the DEMS in that cycle.


This will be the Senate map for 2016:

24 GOP incumbents, 10 DEM incumbents, if the 2014 races in HI, OK special and SC special go as we think they will go.

In other words, the schlamazel that the DEMS are currently in for the 2014 Senate elections is the same kind of schlamazel that the GOP will face in 2016. It's gravity: what comes up, must come down.

15 posts, and you couldn't stay on topic because it didn't fit the Democratic Partisan Dream..




Your predictability is very satisfying.


So, are we talking about your 2016 fantasies, or the much more likely trouncing of the beloved Democratic Party this Fall?

 

[william the wie]

The one wildcard I see this election is the usual the sky is falling in the stock market. At this point a 10% correction would look like a replay of 87. 53-47 R due to a Sept/Oct 5-10% drop. (Avg. for Sept. is -1)

 

[konradv]

After the 2012 fiasco I find it hard to give any credence to Republican claims that they're going to win.

 

[daws101]

the TPs will not control the caucus after January thank God: they have had to many loses and will have no more than 11 seats in the house

JB is safe and there will be no impeachment; the Senate Republican leadership have told the GOP House leadership they will listen to the indictment and then acquit BHO.

How do you get from 60+ TP House members down to just 11?

the only TP I use is two or three ply ...

 

[Darkwind]

I figure the GOP will have 52 seats on the day after the election.

Time will tell if the Senate's new leadership has any sack to him.

 

[daws101]

I figure the GOP will have 52 seats on the day after the election.

Time will tell if the Senate's new leadership has any sack to him.

the right is far too overconfident ... all you need t do is look at the 2012 presidential election.

 

[Derideo_Te]

The one wildcard I see this election is the usual the sky is falling in the stock market. At this point a 10% correction would look like a replay of 87. 53-47 R due to a Sept/Oct 5-10% drop. (Avg. for Sept. is -1)

The economy was in bubble mode in 1987.

No bubble in the current economy ergo no 10% stock drop.

 

[Shanty]

the TPs will not control the caucus after January thank God: they have had to many loses and will have no more than 11 seats in the house

JB is safe and there will be no impeachment; the Senate Republican leadership have told the GOP House leadership they will listen to the indictment and then acquit BHO.

How do you get from 60+ TP House members down to just 11?

You let them open their big, stupid mouths.

 

[Shanty]

The one wildcard I see this election is the usual the sky is falling in the stock market. At this point a 10% correction would look like a replay of 87. 53-47 R due to a Sept/Oct 5-10% drop. (Avg. for Sept. is -1)

There's nothing indicating a potential drop in the markets of any significance.

 

[PoliticalTorch]

Real Clear Politics does a pretty good compilation of polling (aggregate).

There is only one race where a Republican incumbent is locked in a tight race (Kentucky - Mitch McConnell), and of the open races, two of the three are currently Democratic seats.

Here are the averages:

Now, there are two seats that the Democrats really COULD win:

Georgia - and - Kentucky.

That is precisely why old Mitch, the Senate Minority Leader, is shaking in his boots right now about the possibility of his losing Kentucky and if he does, the Democrats Keep the Senate according to him.

Mitch McConnell Admits That Republicans Have No Chance Of Taking The Senate If He Loses

 

[JakeStarkey]

the TPs will not control the caucus after January thank God: they have had to many loses and will have no more than 11 seats in the house

JB is safe and there will be no impeachment; the Senate Republican leadership have told the GOP House leadership they will listen to the indictment and then acquit BHO.

How do you get from 60+ TP House members down to just 11?

You let them open their big, stupid mouths.

They let their real thoughts be known to the voters.

Watch Boehner move toward the center somewhat in 2015 once he does not have to worry about the once and gone TPM mill stone around his neck.

 

[william the wie]

The one wildcard I see this election is the usual the sky is falling in the stock market. At this point a 10% correction would look like a replay of 87. 53-47 R due to a Sept/Oct 5-10% drop. (Avg. for Sept. is -1)

There's nothing indicating a potential drop in the markets of any significance.

A 10% drop is normal variance.

 

[Shanty]

How do you get from 60+ TP House members down to just 11?

You let them open their big, stupid mouths.

They let their real thoughts be known to the voters.

Watch Boehner move toward the center somewhat in 2015 once he does have to worry about the once and gone TPM mill stone around his neck.

I agree.

Boehner, for all of his faults and helping them to screw up so much, wants to get stuff done. As Speaker, he wants to be known for being able to move an agenda forward, which requires compromise. I think once the TP is finally done, and if those members mellow out who are from the far right, we'd see some compromises.

 

[Shanty]

The one wildcard I see this election is the usual the sky is falling in the stock market. At this point a 10% correction would look like a replay of 87. 53-47 R due to a Sept/Oct 5-10% drop. (Avg. for Sept. is -1)

There's nothing indicating a potential drop in the markets of any significance.

A 10% drop is normal variance.

People will ignore that and opt to see if the jobs situation is improving, or not.