2009 Hurricane Prediction

[code1211]

In a yawner of a gamble, the experts are saying they simply don't know. They now know that there are a whole bunch of factors and they are really pretty complex and that all of the variables are taken into account and that after a very concentrated period of thoughtful consideration, they don't know.

It makes one wonder what it cost us to get this valuable bucket of job justification.

2009 Hurricane Season Outlook - Forecast for 2009 Hurricane Season - thedailygreen.com

The federal government has predicted a "near normal" hurricane season for the Atlantic, with a 25% chance of above-normal outbreaks and 25% chance of below-normal outbreaks -- though overall, forecasters expressed a greater degree of uncertainty this year than they have in past years. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's predicts a 70% chance of:

•Named storms: 9-14
•Hurricanes: 4-7
•Major hurricanes: 1-3


Read more: 2009 Hurricane Season Outlook - Forecast for 2009 Hurricane Season - thedailygreen.com

 

[Dis]

Weather can't be accurately predicted more than a couple days out.

It can be controlled on a day to day basis based on whether or not I leave my truck windows open.

But it can not be accurately predicted.

 

[Big Black Dog]

Just stand by. Here in a few minutes one of the environmental wacko nuts will get on here and tell us there will be more storms because of the melting polar ice pack or because we have shot too many rockets into space or some other idiotic reason for the many hurricanes we will have this year as a result! Then they will go out to hugs some trees, jack off a few polar bears and save some whales!

 

[waltky]

Record 139-Months w/o a major hurricane...

Hurricane Season Starts--After Record 139-Month Major Hurricane Drought
June 1, 2017 - The 2017 hurricane season begins today, June 1--a record 139 months after the last major hurricane made landfall in the continental United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA is currently predicting that an "above normal Atlantic hurricane season is likely for this year." The last major hurricane to hit the continental United States was Hurricane Wilma, which made landfall in Florida on Oct. 24, 2005. That year, four major hurricanes hit the continental United States, according to NOAA. They included Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

But since Wilma hit on Oct. 24, 2005, no Category 3 or above hurricane has made landfall in the continental United States, making May 24, 2017, the end of a record 139 months without a major hurricane strike. Prior to this, the longest stretch on record in which a major hurricane did not hit the contintental United States, according to NOAA's records, was the 96 months between September 1860 and August 1869. NOAA has published data on all hurricanes striking the United States since 1851.

A "major hurricane" is defined as one that is Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which means it has sustained wind speeds of more than 111 miles per hour and is capable of causing “devastating” or “catastrophic” damage. "For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-norman season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season," NOAA says on its website. "Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)," says NOAA, "of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)." "An average season," said NOAA, "produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes."

NOAA: Record 139 Months Since Major Hurricane Strike in USA

 

[Billy_Bob]

And yet their predictions today are just as reliable as they were back then...