Hope you are wrong but I will respect your hunch.
I hope I am wrong too believe me. There is way too much "noise" and I'm not in intelligence.
When I was teaching myself A.I/Machine Learning, I really became interested in NLP which stands for Natural Language Processing. I probably alluded to this before on here but I will apply it to this particular situation.
Anyways, this is a fairly simple, straight forward aspect of AI but it has infinite number of applications. It is primarily used in subjects we are all aware of: recommendation systems for online stores, search engines, helps company to cater their ads to you based on cookies etc.
What area interested me most involved generating new theories or predicting the future via current known information. A.I can go through all of the works of all the greats in history in the sciences, advanced mathematics etc and look for patterns and even try to complete unfinished works, work to correct incorrect scientific theories etc.
This is extremely advanced, cutting edge work, but, it could in theory, take all of the worlds knowledge if it sat in written form on petabytes of hard drive data and improve upon these works in a manner we couldn't understand as humans. All of this completed simply by the ever evolving model finding patterns in all of this work. We would get a new theory from the computer and then the experts would try to figure out how the machine found that new theory, why if it is applicable etc.
Well, a more basic, subset of this research involves a relatively elementary analysis of media corpus. Far less sophisticated than the above mentioned application but just as relevant to understanding the human condition. In this methodology of NLP, A.I will search for patterns in written articles, postings of people online, comments, newsworthy items etc.
The most advanced research in this area actually delves into the old clipping going back decades and seeing the AI could based on common words, phrases and decisions by leaders, commentary etc at that time and actually have predicted the real outcome.
A.I might have predicted WWI, WWII, The Cold War, 9/11, nuclear arms race etc. Even particular decisions of a military based on public reports of locations of the military etc. Think of Russia before they went into Ukraine. An NLP model may have taken all of this information such as the political climate, Putins words, their movement of troops and came to the conclusion that Russia was going to invade Ukraine. It would then apply an Alpha score, or probability of say "92% they will invade"
In todays corpus, there is great deal of discussion about Chinas expansion and their alliances. There is a great deal of discussion about replacing the U.S currency, BRICS, the sharp decline of the West, the rise of nations not part of the former Western elite. In a sense, "where there's smoke, there's fire". Could the last ingredient be an exploitable U.S administration?
At the same time, there is also great shifts in government types in the West. Shifts that aren't conducive to withstanding a full court press by an enemy nation if war begins and the communication wars begin. The ability for the Wests enemies to recruit important people who will take the money at their nations expense has to be at an all time high.