Yes I agree, but why the 4 year delay?
And why don't we see the same thing in Natural Gas Prices?
I wouldn't really call it a four year delay. That's making the assumption that as soon as the deregulation occurred, speculation would automatically cause a price spike. I honestly don't know if the spike in oil prices from 2004 were the result of speculation as I'm not as well-versed on this subject as I want to be. I hope to be more when I do more reading this summer. What I can say however is that the 2008 Commodities Bubble (which was several years in the making) was the result of speculation.
As for why we're not seeing this with Natural Gas prices, I couldn't say. I would think it has to do something with the fact that it's more difficult for Natural Gas to be so volatile on Wall Street due to the fact that investors are weary of whether or not it is a good investment. Even though they are once again the largest Natural Gas company, many consider ExxonMobil making that move to be a huge risk. Whether my assessment is correct or not, I don't know for sure. So I'd take that with a grain of salt.
Frankly, I would be astonished if you, me, or anyone else, including 60 Minutes, completly understood the commodity markets, which returns us to the question of regulation: How does one regulate what one doesn't understand?
And, I repeat, that while the USA may be the largest consumer of oil, it certainly isn't the ONLY consumer, and it isn't the ONLY market. Trading in commodity futures could just as easily happen in Japan, or Brazil. Then the USA would have less control over it, and would also lose revenue from capital gains taxes on commodity sales.
There is no reason Natural Gas cannot be sold exactly like Crude. "Many" might consider ExxonMobil's acquisition of XTO "to be a huge risk." IMHO it was a sure thing: Natural gas will be the first SIGNIFICANT alternative to oil to emerge as oil becomes less recoverable.
Is Exxon Mobil Move Towards Natural Gas by Choice or by Necessity? - NASDAQ.com
My Guess is Natural Gas hasn't been as volitile as Crude because it isn't as sexy (scarce). It will become just as volitile as oil. In this area I have some personal knowedge: XTO, Chesapeak, etc, are planning to begin their own service companies, e.g. Halliburton, Baker Hughes, because the service companies simply cannot keep up with demand (Fracking).
Interestingly, this is a highly labor intenstive process (fracking), and it could provide millions of domestic jobs, except for one thing: Domestic Labor shuns working outdoors in remote locations for $15/hr as long as government provides $500/40hr week = $12.5/hr. Indeed, even for $20/hr, many will refuse the job (empirical basis).