- Feb 22, 2017
- 104,737
- 35,429
- 2,290
Zogby!
How Reliable Is the Zogby-Journal Poll?
“The Zogby stuff, on scientific grounds, is quite questionable,” says Zukin. “Online, Internet, opt-in polling, where people volunteer to be respondents, doesn’t really have a basis in scientific validity. There are two kinds of samples in the world. There are probability samples, and there are non-probability samples.”
The Zogby interactive polls, says Zukin, clearly fall into the latter camp. “With probability samples, when everybody has a known chance of being selected, you can make pretty valid inferences about the population from which it is drawn,” says Zukin. “You can’t do that at all with self-selected surveys. That’s a problem.”
Here's a much better poll for you:
PredictIt
More like gambling odds than a poll.
Of course. But look at how surprisingly accurate most of them were:
PredictIt
The bigger question is were they accurate 6 months or 12 months out. Even the polls that you all hate so very much, right before the elections had Hillary winning the popular vote by 3.2%, which was not far off from the actual count.
The biggest problem with all of this is none of them can predict future events.
Polls are just a snapshot in time, you cannot look at a poll from 6 months prior to an event and say it was wrong, for it could have been right on that day. That is what most people do not understand about polls, they are only accurate for the day(s) they were taken. They hold no predictive power.
So tell me this: Just how accurate were all those polls that six months prior to the 2016 election, were claiming Hillary was our next President?
Did you not read what I just posted? You cannot say how accurate they were unless the election were held that very day. That is the problem with polls, they, as I said, hold no predictive power.
Did the people that answered those polls 6 months out know that Hillary was going to quit campaign in August and just assume she would win?
Did they know that the FBI would publicly reopen an investigation in the last month of the election.