CDZ Will IL go into Chapter 3 Within the Next 90 days?

[william the wie]

The governor is Republican while nearly everyone else in state government is a Democrat. With Trump forming his own circular firing squad a pin the blame on the Ds move could be career enhancing for the governor but no one is saying so. The possibility of contagion is also useful since the affected states are almost all blue. What's your position? If you've been following this decades long soap opera please go into detail.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

No.

 

[aaronleland]

No.

Less detail please.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

No.

Less detail please.

.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

No.

Less detail please.

There is no Chapter 3. Shhhhhh......

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

No.

Less detail please.

Also......it's not currently allowed.........shhhhhhh

States can’t seek legal protection from their debts, but there’s a move on to change that.

The Case for Allowing U.S. States to Declare Bankruptcy

 

[2aguy]

Illinois is a dead state......we have something like 20 billion in revenue and over 220 billion in debt.....the state is dead, it just hasn't stopped twitching....

 

[Picaro]

Illinois is a dead state......we have something like 20 billion in revenue and over 220 billion in debt.....the state is dead, it just hasn't stopped twitching....

And something $219 billion of it was 'spent' in Cook County, I'd guess. We know Michelle Obama got some kind of patronage job at a county hospital pulling down some $220K in 'public relations' not counting bennies and perks. Daddy was a Democratic precinct captain who did very well.

 

[william the wie]

The reason I put this up is that debt rollover in the next 90 days or further ratings downgrades in bond rating seem likely to trigger chapter 3 and the bond ratings companies know that Obama is a lameduck.

 

[william the wie]

MA, NJ and CT are in even worse shape according to CNBC so let me run some simple probabilities. There are at least 11 states that have an annual 10% probability of going into Chapter 3 while these 4 states have more like a 20% chance of going into chapter 3 and more like a 40% probability of going into chapter 3 by contagion if some other state goes into chapter 3.

With 4 months (1/3 of a year) to go to the election I get a 21% for one of the seven bad states going into chapter 3 and 20% for one of the four worse to go into chapter 3 makimg it roughly 64% likely that there will be no meltdown prior to the election and because of ratings downgrades effectively 100% likelihood after the election, sound right?