Why Obama Will Lose

[Conservative]

Barack Obama on track to lose—John Podhoretz - NYPOST.com

Less than four months until the election, the Real Clear Politics average of all national surveys has Obama at 46.2 percent, vs. 45 percent for Mitt Romney.

That’s not a good number for an incumbent.

The issue today is the economy. Not to mention the economy. Also, the economy. In every poll, more than 50 percent say the economy is the No. 1 issue; health care comes in second, somewhere between 10 and 20 percent.

How is Obama faring on economic questions? Terribly. Much worse than his head-to-head numbers. In this week’s New York Times poll, 39 percent of the public rates him favorably on his handling of the economy, vs. 55 percent who disapprove. It’s pretty much the same in other polls.

This is even worse for him than it looks because the poll sample itself — the registered voters interviewed by the pollsters — is tilted in the president’s favor. Of those interviewed, 32 percent said they were Democrats, 25 percent Republicans and 37 percent independents.

That 7-point Democratic advantage was the spread on Election Day 2008 — after the collapse in George W. Bush’s support, the Republican scandals of 2006, the financial meltdown and the Obama surge. Does anyone seriously believe that, in 2012, Democrats will have anywhere near that advantage?

James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute notes that the only two presidents to face re-election with the consumer-confidence numbers Obama has to show for himself were Jimmy Carter and the first George Bush — both one-termers.

In 2012, what is the incumbent going to do — talk about somebody else’s tax returns for the next 109 days?

Probably

 

[Steelplate]

well I guess us Dems might as well not even vote now that you've educated us.

 

[Conservative]

well I guess us Dems might as well not even vote now that you've educated us.

fine by me. you dont want to participate, your choice.

 

[ginscpy]

Historically - when the incumbant is even with the challenger in July - he loses big in Nov.

Also - 16% real unemployment - which won't get much better before the election.

Not looking good for the Anointed One.

 

[ginscpy]

The undecideds at the last moment go big for the challenger if they are unhappy with the incumbant.

 

[naturegirl]

Well I'm certainly not happy with the incumbent.

 

[ginscpy]

I predict Romney will pick a safe VP choice (that lets out Ryan, Christie etc) that will "do no harm."

His election to lose.

 

[Freewill]

well I guess us Dems might as well not even vote now that you've educated us.

Isn't that an interesting statement. Do you think that all democrats are in lock step behind Obama? Well I certainly believe that the majority are ignoring the disaster of the last 6 years but I still believe there are quite a few thinking democrats. A lot of people I know around here are democrats only because the local government is controlled by democrats and has been for years. Me I'd rather be an outsider then part of the party of slavery, Jim Crow, poll taxes, segregation and the KKK.

 

[Freewill]

Historically - when the incumbant is even with the challenger in July - he loses big in Nov.

Also - 16% real unemployment - which won't get much better before the election.

Not looking good for the Anointed One.

Look for a crisis before November that won't be wasted.

 

[Bloodline]

I predict Romney will pick a safe VP choice (that lets out Ryan, Christie etc) that will "do no harm."

His election to lose.

I predict Romney will trip over his own feet and totally fuck the whole thing up.

And I'm taking bets and giving good odds!

 

[Bloodline]

Historically - when the incumbant is even with the challenger in July - he loses big in Nov.

Also - 16% real unemployment - which won't get much better before the election.

Not looking good for the Anointed One.

Look for a crisis before November that won't be wasted.

Look for Romney's SECRET tax returns to be exposed.

 

[ladyliberal]

Historically - when the incumbant is even with the challenger in July - he loses big in Nov.

My understanding is that quite the opposite is true. See for example figure 1 of Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » What Does President Obama

In general I believe incumbents tend to make up ground as the election nears and it seems more a choice than a referendum.

There are a number of other problems with Podhoretz's "common sense" analysis:

- Podhoretz concedes that he is betting against models and markets, but doesn't explain why the models are wrong.

- Podhoretz doesn't seem to understand how modern polling works. In particular he seems to be under the impression that the NYT poll does not use demographic weighting.

- Podhoretz cites some bad economic numbers and notes that no recent president has been elected with numbers so bad. This is true, but such economic determinism couldn't explain the approval ratings Obama currently has. As such, we should not ascribe predictive power to such models over and above those that include polling data.

- Podhoretz claims that the 2004 election was a referendum on Bush and not a choice between Bush or Kerry (and therefore claims that the 2012 election will be a referendum on Obama). However, post-election analysis generally attributes Bush's fairly narrow margin to contrasts between Bush and Kerry rather than solely to Bush's defense of his record (see, eg, Why Bush Won - CBS News).

 

[Bloodline]

I predict Romney will pick a safe VP choice (that lets out Ryan, Christie etc) that will "do no harm."

His election to lose.

He'd better. He can't run on his own merit that's for sure!

 

[Bloodline]

Well I'm certainly not happy with the incumbent.

Why not?

 

[naturegirl]

If the economy and jobs don't get better between now and November, Obama better call the moving trucks.

Wonder which letter of the keyboard he'll encourage his staff to steal??

 

[naturegirl]

Well I'm certainly not happy with the incumbent.

Why not?

#1 He hates America and all it stands for...............his "fundamental change" hasn't caught on. Americans, like to work for their bread.

 

[Bloodline]

If the economy and jobs don't get better between now and November, Obama better call the moving trucks.

Wonder which letter of the keyboard he'll encourage his staff to steal??

Or maybe he can just call the moving trucks toward the end of his second term?

You know, like G.W.Bush did while America was crumbling around him!

 

[Bloodline]

Well I'm certainly not happy with the incumbent.

Why not?

#1 He hates America and all it stands for...............his "fundamental change" hasn't caught on. Americans, like to work for their bread.

PROVE IT!!!!

link?

 

[ginscpy]

Think Reagan vs Carter in 80.

Carter was leading big as late as August.

 

[ginscpy]

Crises with Iran??

The Bain stuff is all much ado about nothing.

Bashing someone for being successfull......................................