Why early voting numbers aren't reliable in predicting election outcomes

[Billy000]

1) There's no guarantee that a democrat/republican will vote democrat/republican.

2) We don't know how independents are voting at this point

3) In most states, the largest number of votes cast are on the actual election day.

4) There is a demographic divide on who votes early and who doesn't. For instance, elderly people overwhelming vote early instead of on election day and the elderly typically vote republican. This is part of the reason why repubs are ahead in early voting.

5) Polls already account for early voting anyway.

6) Regardless of election outcome, republicans always have a lead in early voting.

Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote

 

[kyzr]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

 

[Thinker101]

1) There's no guarantee that a democrat/republican will vote democrat/republican.

2) We don't know how independents are voting at this point

3) In most states, the largest number of votes cast are on the actual election day.

4) There is a demographic divide on who votes early and who doesn't. For instance, elderly people overwhelming vote early instead of on election day and the elderly typically vote republican. This is part of the reason why repubs are ahead in early voting.

5) Polls already account for early voting anyway.

6) Regardless of election outcome, republicans always have a lead in early voting.

Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote

Yeah, is that another way of saying that polls only matter if a Democrat is ahead?

 

[kyzr]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

Even my apolitical wife wants to punish the dems for what they did to Kavanaugh. Also, I can't imagine anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voting for Pelosi and Maxine and Nadler in 2018??? "Its the economy stupid" should still work.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

Even my apolitical wife wants to punish the dems for what they did to Kavanaugh. Also, I can't imagine anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voting for Pelosi and Maxine and Nadler in 2018??? "Its the economy stupid" should still work.

It seems the Democrats want to base their vote on personality instead of accomplishments. It's usually that way with them.

However the United States is a business--not a popularity club.

So you have this company and two or three of your employees are less than personable. One is quiet all the time and seldom talks to anybody. Another one is a smart ass; always making jokes and poking fun at people. The third one gets pissed off at the littlest things.

However they all do outstanding work. Do you get rid of them?

Well.....if you turned your business around to have very friendly workers who don't produce as much, you're not going to be in business very long.

The Democrats want to see all professional politicians. They don't care about issues, they care about baby kissing. How do they look.......how do they speak........how wonderful of a family they have......

 

[Billy000]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

Even my apolitical wife wants to punish the dems for what they did to Kavanaugh. Also, I can't imagine anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voting for Pelosi and Maxine and Nadler in 2018??? "Its the economy stupid" should still work.

It seems the Democrats want to base their vote on personality instead of accomplishments. It's usually that way with them.

However the United States is a business--not a popularity club.

So you have this company and two or three of your employees are less than personable. One is quiet all the time and seldom talks to anybody. Another one is a smart ass; always making jokes and poking fun at people. The third one gets pissed off at the littlest things.

However they all do outstanding work. Do you get rid of them?

Well.....if you turned your business around to have very friendly workers who don't produce as much, you're not going to be in business very long.

The Democrats want to see all professional politicians. They don't care about issues, they care about baby kissing. How do they look.......how do they speak........how wonderful of a family they have......

The Dems will take the House.

 

[ptbw forever]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

Even my apolitical wife wants to punish the dems for what they did to Kavanaugh. Also, I can't imagine anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voting for Pelosi and Maxine and Nadler in 2018??? "Its the economy stupid" should still work.

It seems the Democrats want to base their vote on personality instead of accomplishments. It's usually that way with them.

However the United States is a business--not a popularity club.

So you have this company and two or three of your employees are less than personable. One is quiet all the time and seldom talks to anybody. Another one is a smart ass; always making jokes and poking fun at people. The third one gets pissed off at the littlest things.

However they all do outstanding work. Do you get rid of them?

Well.....if you turned your business around to have very friendly workers who don't produce as much, you're not going to be in business very long.

The Democrats want to see all professional politicians. They don't care about issues, they care about baby kissing. How do they look.......how do they speak........how wonderful of a family they have......

The Dems will take the House.

Do you have any clue how many people have already voted?

We are on pace to GAIN seats right now.

You can go cry now.

 

[Issa]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

 

[OKTexas]

1) There's no guarantee that a democrat/republican will vote democrat/republican.

2) We don't know how independents are voting at this point

3) In most states, the largest number of votes cast are on the actual election day.

4) There is a demographic divide on who votes early and who doesn't. For instance, elderly people overwhelming vote early instead of on election day and the elderly typically vote republican. This is part of the reason why repubs are ahead in early voting.

5) Polls already account for early voting anyway.

6) Regardless of election outcome, republicans always have a lead in early voting.

Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote

nazi palousey says you've already won, so no need to worry your wittle head. Your leader has spoken. LMAO

.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

And if we could eliminate government dependents and victims in this country, the only time you'd hear of the Democrat Party was in history books. That's why when in power, they try to manufacture as many of both as possible.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

Even my apolitical wife wants to punish the dems for what they did to Kavanaugh. Also, I can't imagine anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voting for Pelosi and Maxine and Nadler in 2018??? "Its the economy stupid" should still work.

It seems the Democrats want to base their vote on personality instead of accomplishments. It's usually that way with them.

However the United States is a business--not a popularity club.

So you have this company and two or three of your employees are less than personable. One is quiet all the time and seldom talks to anybody. Another one is a smart ass; always making jokes and poking fun at people. The third one gets pissed off at the littlest things.

However they all do outstanding work. Do you get rid of them?

Well.....if you turned your business around to have very friendly workers who don't produce as much, you're not going to be in business very long.

The Democrats want to see all professional politicians. They don't care about issues, they care about baby kissing. How do they look.......how do they speak........how wonderful of a family they have......

The Dems will take the House.

When have I heard that before?

You're basing your predictions on polling and so-called experts. However like past elections, common sense may prevail once again. The reason for Trump's great success is he has a government that's backing his policies and plans. Why in the world would anybody want to stop what's happening in our country today?

And if it does stop, you will be the first one here blaming Trump instead of the mistake the country made by stopping him with a Democrat led Congress. Once Democrats gain power, the stock market goes down, jobs stop being created, investments slow down. That would be the results of a Commie led Congress.

 

[ptbw forever]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

Plenty of those people are voting, but they aren't voting for you and your Hollywood elite masters.

 

[Issa]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

And if we could eliminate government dependents and victims in this country, the only time you'd hear of the Democrat Party was in history books. That's why when in power, they try to manufacture as many of both as possible.

Why the red states are the highest recipients of government help then ?

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

Even my apolitical wife wants to punish the dems for what they did to Kavanaugh. Also, I can't imagine anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voting for Pelosi and Maxine and Nadler in 2018??? "Its the economy stupid" should still work.

It seems the Democrats want to base their vote on personality instead of accomplishments. It's usually that way with them.

However the United States is a business--not a popularity club.

So you have this company and two or three of your employees are less than personable. One is quiet all the time and seldom talks to anybody. Another one is a smart ass; always making jokes and poking fun at people. The third one gets pissed off at the littlest things.

However they all do outstanding work. Do you get rid of them?

Well.....if you turned your business around to have very friendly workers who don't produce as much, you're not going to be in business very long.

The Democrats want to see all professional politicians. They don't care about issues, they care about baby kissing. How do they look.......how do they speak........how wonderful of a family they have......

The Dems will take the House.

I agree

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

And if we could eliminate government dependents and victims in this country, the only time you'd hear of the Democrat Party was in history books. That's why when in power, they try to manufacture as many of both as possible.

Why the red states are the highest recipients of government help then ?

Because we generate much less money due to our cost of living being so low. In liberal states, it costs twice as much money to live the same lifestyle as those in blue states, therefore people have to make more money.

For instance Trump made a limit on mortgage interest deductions. Now if you have over 800K loan, that's all you can write-off is the interest on that first 800K. Only the blue states cried about it. Why? Because an 800K house in liberal states is like a 300K house outside of liberal land.

 

[ptbw forever]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

Even my apolitical wife wants to punish the dems for what they did to Kavanaugh. Also, I can't imagine anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voting for Pelosi and Maxine and Nadler in 2018??? "Its the economy stupid" should still work.

It seems the Democrats want to base their vote on personality instead of accomplishments. It's usually that way with them.

However the United States is a business--not a popularity club.

So you have this company and two or three of your employees are less than personable. One is quiet all the time and seldom talks to anybody. Another one is a smart ass; always making jokes and poking fun at people. The third one gets pissed off at the littlest things.

However they all do outstanding work. Do you get rid of them?

Well.....if you turned your business around to have very friendly workers who don't produce as much, you're not going to be in business very long.

The Democrats want to see all professional politicians. They don't care about issues, they care about baby kissing. How do they look.......how do they speak........how wonderful of a family they have......

The Dems will take the House.

I agree

I am going to laugh at you forever once you are proven wrong for the 2nd election in a row.

The same idiots who thought Trump couldn't win and that the Republicans would lose the Senate in 2016 are now saying that Democrats will claim the House and reduce Republican gains in the Senate to a minimum.

It is almost like all of you are just pulling this shit out of your ass.

 

[Norman]

What happens when he finally realizes that the blue wave theory was one more fake news item fed by the media?

 

[Issa]

Its all about turnout. The GOP turnout looks good so far. I can't imagine Pubs voting for Dems. If the dems like the Trump economy, like many of the union guys I know, they will vote for the GOP candidate.

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

And if we could eliminate government dependents and victims in this country, the only time you'd hear of the Democrat Party was in history books. That's why when in power, they try to manufacture as many of both as possible.

Why the red states are the highest recipients of government help then ?

Because we generate much less money due to our cost of living being so low. In liberal states, it costs twice as much money to live the same lifestyle as those in blue states, therefore people have to make more money.

For instance Trump made a limit on mortgage interest deductions. Now if you have over 800K loan, that's all you can write-off is the interest on that first 800K. Only the blue states cried about it. Why? Because an 800K house in liberal states is like a 300K house outside of liberal land.

Well he sure screwed those in blue states that's why we dont and wont welcome his ass....he can keep flying to the flyover states.
And how can you compare living by the beach in sunny California, few miles from the best amusement parks, national parks, mountains, international airport, marinas to a boring ass place in the middle of nowhere?
It's expensive for a reason, and its CHEAP for a reason.
90402 code a condo os over 1 mil, it can buy you acre of land in most red areas, but who wants to live there ? They are empty for a reason.

 

[Ray From Cleveland]

Some live by the adage "If it's not broke--don't fix it."

I don't believe in polls or early voting or exit polling. Whatever happens will happen. However since Democrats usually lead in early voting, something tells me there are a lot of pissed off Republicans this time around.

Between these caravans and what they tried to do to Kavanaugh, it would make sense that people are heading out to vote while still upset. Could be a bad thing for Democrats.

You right the hateful group that makes lot of noise...lot of young voters, independents, minorities dont vote....if they did we would never here from the GOP or their nazi friends ever.

And if we could eliminate government dependents and victims in this country, the only time you'd hear of the Democrat Party was in history books. That's why when in power, they try to manufacture as many of both as possible.

Why the red states are the highest recipients of government help then ?

Because we generate much less money due to our cost of living being so low. In liberal states, it costs twice as much money to live the same lifestyle as those in blue states, therefore people have to make more money.

For instance Trump made a limit on mortgage interest deductions. Now if you have over 800K loan, that's all you can write-off is the interest on that first 800K. Only the blue states cried about it. Why? Because an 800K house in liberal states is like a 300K house outside of liberal land.

Well he sure screwed those in blue states that's why we dont and wont welcome his ass....he can keep flying to the flyover states.
And how can you compare living by the beach in sunny California, few miles from the best amusement parks, national parks, mountains, international airport, marinas to a boring ass place in the middle of nowhere?
It's expensive for a reason, and its CHEAP for a reason.
90402 code a condo os over 1 mil, it can buy you acre of land in most red areas, but who wants to live there ? They are empty for a reason.

You asked why and I explained it to you. High taxes, increased state minimum wage, social spending, strong union support, increases the cost of living. And there are plenty of red state areas people would love to live in.

How did he screw blue states? Liberals love high taxes; at least that's what they claim until they are the ones actually paying those taxes.