Why Americans are not buying or selling homes.

FranklinRoosevelt_FTW

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May 12, 2022
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Right now there’s about 1 million homes on the market in the USA. But usually around this time of the year there should be about 4 million homes on the market.

Whatever side of the isle one comes down on. This is certainly an issue. Whatever one might say about what they think about the economy this affects Americans across the country who want to buy a home and pursue the American dream. It is extremely frustrating for Americans, who have new families to look at high interest rates and high home prices …These are the kind of things that might get Trump back into office.

Right now interest rates on a home mortgage loan is around 6 1/2 to 7%. Down from his high is 8%. But still extremely high considering what many Americans are paying right now for their mortgage. under Trump mortgage loan rates were around 2 1/2%.

Another thing affecting our economy , are hospital costs, which have effectively doubled since 1995.

Patrick bet David brings this up on his podcast this morning. Showing us a few factors on why people are not selling or buying homes.

“A few factors why people aren’t selling or buying a house.

92% of Americans have a mortgage below 6% right now

61% are below 4%

23% have a mortgage below 3% 🍀
(source @DavidBahnsen)

So what would cause people to start selling & buying:

1. Americans running out of savings

Personal savings in 🇺🇸 reached $686 Billion in 2022, the lowest figures since 2009.

2020: we had $3 trillion
2021: we had $2.5 trillion
2022: $686 billion
2023: $800 billion (as of April)

We went up slightly but as savings decreases, that panic could cause owners to sell at a lower price.

2. Unemployment.

It’s still at 3.6% ish and hasn’t gone up to the 10% many thought like it did in 2008.

The market expected unemployment to skyrocket if Powell kept increasing rates.

Hasn’t happened yet.

3. Congress has more power than Powell

Everytime Powell increased the rates to help address obsession the govt has with over spending the last 14 years with low interest rates, congress undermined it by delaying the time bomb that was coming to the next generation.

So will anything happen with a massive crash in real estate?

In certain pockets, maybe. But across the country, probably not.

Let the fake success economy continue.

No politician or majority of congress has the brass to actually do what’s best for 🇺🇸.

Zero chance of getting elected let alone re-elected.

Our current structure with no term limits will hurt the next 2 or 3 generations.

Someone with brass who doesn’t care about pleasing the majority needs to take the lead.

But can that person get elected?”
 
Four years ago under Donald Trump. The interest rates were below 3%. The average cost of a home was $250,000. Now today the interest rate is approaching 7%. And the average cost of a home is 350,000.

From the Pbd podcast
 
Id be interested to see the results of new single family home building compared to rental unit building going on.

Near me I have seen more rental property building in the past 2 years than single family home building in the past 10 years.

Rental properties keep people locked into paying. They cost so much they have a hard time leaving. They also keep people concentrated in a area so they don't leave or go very far.

A few years ago places like California started getting rid of single family home zoning.

 
Four years ago under Donald Trump. The interest rates were below 3%.

The average mortgage rate did not go under 3% will Aug of 2020.

The prime rate was never under 3% during the Trump admin.

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Right now there’s about 1 million homes on the market in the USA. But usually around this time of the year there should be about 4 million homes on the market.

Whatever side of the isle one comes down on. This is certainly an issue. Whatever one might say about what they think about the economy this affects Americans across the country who want to buy a home and pursue the American dream. It is extremely frustrating for Americans, who have new families to look at high interest rates and high home prices …These are the kind of things that might get Trump back into office.

Right now interest rates on a home mortgage loan is around 6 1/2 to 7%. Down from his high is 8%. But still extremely high considering what many Americans are paying right now for their mortgage. under Trump mortgage loan rates were around 2 1/2%.

Another thing affecting our economy , are hospital costs, which have effectively doubled since 1995.

Patrick bet David brings this up on his podcast this morning. Showing us a few factors on why people are not selling or buying homes.

“A few factors why people aren’t selling or buying a house.

92% of Americans have a mortgage below 6% right now

61% are below 4%

23% have a mortgage below 3% 🍀
(source @DavidBahnsen)

So what would cause people to start selling & buying:

1. Americans running out of savings

Personal savings in 🇺🇸 reached $686 Billion in 2022, the lowest figures since 2009.

2020: we had $3 trillion
2021: we had $2.5 trillion
2022: $686 billion
2023: $800 billion (as of April)

We went up slightly but as savings decreases, that panic could cause owners to sell at a lower price.

2. Unemployment.

It’s still at 3.6% ish and hasn’t gone up to the 10% many thought like it did in 2008.

The market expected unemployment to skyrocket if Powell kept increasing rates.

Hasn’t happened yet.

3. Congress has more power than Powell

Everytime Powell increased the rates to help address obsession the govt has with over spending the last 14 years with low interest rates, congress undermined it by delaying the time bomb that was coming to the next generation.

So will anything happen with a massive crash in real estate?

In certain pockets, maybe. But across the country, probably not.

Let the fake success economy continue.

No politician or majority of congress has the brass to actually do what’s best for 🇺🇸.

Zero chance of getting elected let alone re-elected.

Our current structure with no term limits will hurt the next 2 or 3 generations.

Someone with brass who doesn’t care about pleasing the majority needs to take the lead.

But can that person get elected?”
What happened to “repeal and replace”? Wouldn’t the best strategy have been to expand SS health benefits to everyone? That’s what Eleanor would have done.
 
The reason for high home prices and low home sales is easy to understand. As stated in the OP, a majority of homeowners have very low fixed rate mortgages. Why would they sell when they know their rate could double or triple? This lack of supply pushes up the cost of homes that are for sale.
 
You will either own 8 mansions around the country and the world as you make your money working for the political elites in the DNC, or you will rent a row house and be happy.

That is the direction society is going..
You're exactly right, the American system of greedy capitalism that only serves the wealthy, is failing.
The doubling of hospital costs is another clue the OP mentioned.
Neither political party wants to deal with income inequality.
 
You're exactly right, the American system of greedy capitalism that only serves the wealthy, is failing.
The doubling of hospital costs is another clue the OP mentioned.
Neither political party wants to deal with income inequality.
Marxism is just, if not more so, greedy.

Every Marxist regime has a group of rich elites that surround them to protect them.

Take North Korea, for example. The only people there that have any privilege whatsoever are those who live in the city Rocket man lives in. There, the people understand that they have it better than the rest of the country, so they better be appreciative and protect him.

Then there is the inner circle that has even more privilege. Marxists take care of those who take care of them and let everyone else die in abject misery and poverty.
 
You will either own 8 mansions around the country and the world as you make your money working for the political elites in the DNC, or you will rent a row house and be happy.

That is the direction society is going..
Exactly. As much as the left gripe about income inequality, their policies actually wipe out the middle class and increase income inequality.
 
You would never know it in my AO......Nothing sits empty for long.

They sold a 895 sq ft house built in the 1930s down the street from my mom for $330K last week, it was on the market for three days.

A very shitty town lot up the street from me sold for 80K....20 years ago I doubt you could have got a permit to build on it.
 
The reason for high home prices and low home sales is easy to understand. As stated in the OP, a majority of homeowners have very low fixed rate mortgages. Why would they sell when they know their rate could double or triple? This lack of supply pushes up the cost of homes that are for sale.
Many did just that because they were cashing on on the sky high prices post pandemic
 

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