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So Where did Taiwan Go? (3 comments )
READ MORE: Google, 2006, George W. Bush
where is taiwan.jpg
(Map from CNN)
So I was looking at the map that goes along with the Failed States Index provided by Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace. There is Madagascar blacked out. No data it seems. And Iceland is the same way, though you'd think there would be stats from there. Places like the Canary Islands and the Azores and all those Pacific Islands and much the Caribbean islands are absent, which make sense for obvious reasons. Too much geographical clutter is bad feng shui. But then I see the island of Hainan off of China, the island where the U.S. spy plane was forced to land after being bumped by a Chinese fighter in early 2001 right there next to Vietnam. No big deal really, except when you look a little bit north of Hainan. Yeah, over there, between Japan and the Philippines, there's not the island you would expect to see: Taiwan.
Where did Taiwan go? What black geopolitical memory hole did it slip into? Was it just a mental lapse from those who compiled the map, or something more ominous? I've written to FP about this, but haven't yet heard why they left Taiwan out. If it was a legitimate mistake, then so be it. But considering Hainan is there, it looks a bit fishy. Why not just put Taiwan up there as blacked out? Or possibly even colored in? It would be interesting to know its rating compared to China across the straight, especially since China dropped ten points from last year in the 'failed states' index. Instead, it is mysteriously absent.
So, okay, you say ... this is just a map. True, true. But it did give me pause and make me think about how in the real world outside of maps, Taiwan also seems to be vanishing a little bit each day. Given all the language that comes out of the Bush Administration about supporting "democracy" over the past few years, it is baffling how China's president Hu Jintao can get state honors from the Bush administration while a few weeks later, Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian's request to stop over in New York or Los Angeles was coldly refused. While Chen's request can be largely seen as an effort of political gamesmanship that blew up in his face, the desperate nature of the request grows out of the fact that Taiwan is growing more and more isolated on the world stage. Currently Taiwan is only recognized by 25 countries around the world, none of which are major players.
China on the other hand is gaining favor at every turn. Though it has a long way to go in its democratization and human rights record, it was recently named to the human rights council of the U.N. (along with a few other bad seeds). It also has a terrible press freedom record. While China has made tremendous strides economically, and citizens have more economic freedom than ever before, it is a poor place for political and individual freedom.
I don't think anyone in their right mind would be in support of claims that Taiwan has sole legitimacy as the government of China, as was the case for many years during the Cold War. Any Taiwanese aspirations to this are idiocy. But what about Taiwanese aspirations as an independent nation? What about Taiwan rejoining the UN? A declaration of independence by Taiwan itself would probably lead to war with China, drawing the U.S. in, as was recently warned by Dept. U.S. Secretary of State Robert Zoellick. But China's seat on the U.N. Security Council (which was held by Taiwan up to 1971) means there's really no other choices for Taiwan other than the status quo, or to become part of the People's Republic of China. Either choice means joining China eventually through peace or possibly through war. Here Taiwan is in another difficult situation, since the status quo merely means China can further isolate it on the world stage and use economic pressure to slowly pry away those 25 countries that still recognize Taiwan.
The hope has been over the past two administrations, and possibly going back further, that the economic growth of China would lead to a more free China, meaning that a peaceful joining of Taiwan and China could eventually happen naturally. An economically strong China has not produced a politically free China. And from what can be seen, the status quo in that regard is one of the surest bets that can be made looking ahead over the next five to ten years. Taiwan on the other hand has a vibrant economy, and for the past ten years, has a full fledged democracy. While Taiwan has a shared history with China, it also has many differences, including a 50-year period of Japanese rule, it's own aboriginal cultures, and its own linguistic variation of Mandarin Chinese (Taiwanese).
So where did Taiwan go is a question that doesn't only refer to this map, but in the eyes of the wider world. I'm not suggesting Taiwan should declare independence, though I do believe that is up to them. Nor would I claim China has no right to see Taiwan as part of China. Historically, they have a valid position. I do believe, however, that the failure to recognize Taiwan's success over the past decades in building its democratic institutions, its political and press freedoms, as well as its success moving from a heavily industrialized economy to a high-tech and service oriented economy, should be held up as something for China to emulate. Instead, Taiwan is being isolated and strangled by Chinese dominance and forced into the position have having only two options left: join China, or declare independence and fight China. If China is really keen on promoting 'peace and harmony' as is so often heard in its Orwellian official rhetoric, they could start by laying off Taiwan and perhaps learning from their neighbor. They would also be wise to see that the pressure they do exert against Taiwan only pushes those pro-independence forces in Taiwan further toward that eventuality, and possibly war. Perhaps that is what they want.
Mr.Conley said:Very, very delicate situation. One of the main reasons the CCP is still in power is its showmanship on Taiwan. Everyone in Mainland China considers the island part of the country, and, traditionally it has been.
If we had just allowed Communist China to take the island in the 1950s, when it was still a dictatorship, things would be a lot easier, but I dream.
Ultimately, I think the best way to go in this situation is to wait. Hopefully, China will continue to slowly become a free, democratic state and an important member of the international community
China a democratic state? What are you smokin'? Tightly controlled 'capitalism' on the backs of serfs and prisoners perhaps; democratic? Not for the forseeable future.Mr.Conley said:Very, very delicate situation. One of the main reasons the CCP is still in power is its showmanship on Taiwan. Everyone in Mainland China considers the island part of the country, and, traditionally it has been.
If we had just allowed Communist China to take the island in the 1950s, when it was still a dictatorship, things would be a lot easier, but I dream.
Ultimately, I think the best way to go in this situation is to wait. Hopefully, China will continue to slowly become a free, democratic state and an important member of the international community
Kathianne said:China a democratic state? What are you smokin'? Tightly controlled 'capitalism' on the backs of serfs and prisoners perhaps; democratic? Not for the forseeable future.
Kathianne said:Ok, I've been smote.
It would have made today a lot easier, and I believe would further weaken the grip of the Chinese Communist Party.5stringJeff said:So you would have rather had Taiwan go Communist than remain free? Ridiculous.
China isn't a democratic state. No one has said China is a democratic state. However, China is slowly becoming ever more free and open. For example. compare the China of today to the China of 30 years ago. The CCP was much more powerful, and much more draconian, then it is today. Near the end of the Mao era, you couldn't so much as breath without asking for permission. Everyone's job, where they lived, who they worked with, what they owned and ate, where they spent their free time, everything was decided by the party. The factor in a nice purge every 5 years or so and you get the idea. Now compare that to the China of today. You can decide where you live, work, who you meet, all that stuff. China has slowly progressed from being the least free state on the planet to now meeting basic freedom. China has a burgeoning middle class over 100 million strong. Everyday, China gains a little bit more. The Communist party can't do anything. Their main hold on power is the economic prosperity they are providing along with the regulartory agencies they are (slowly) creating. The current system of wait and see is working, but Taiwan is a bad issue that hurting our relations and empowers the few remaining hard-line communists. If Taiwan were resolved, the security situation in East Asia would be greatly eased.Kathianne said:China a democratic state? What are you smokin'? Tightly controlled 'capitalism' on the backs of serfs and prisoners perhaps; democratic? Not for the forseeable future.
Mr.Conley said:It would have made today a lot easier, and I believe would further weaken the grip of the Chinese Communist Party.
China isn't a democratic state. No one has said China is a democratic state. However, China is slowly becoming ever more free and open. For example. compare the China of today to the China of 30 years ago. The CCP was much more powerful, and much more draconian, then it is today. Near the end of the Mao era, you couldn't so much as breath without asking for permission. Everyone's job, where they lived, who they worked with, what they owned and ate, where they spent their free time, everything was decided by the party. The factor in a nice purge every 5 years or so and you get the idea. Now compare that to the China of today. You can decide where you live, work, who you meet, all that stuff. China has slowly progressed from being the least free state on the planet to now meeting basic freedom. China has a burgeoning middle class over 100 million strong. Everyday, China gains a little bit more. The Communist party can't do anything. Their main hold on power is the economic prosperity they are providing along with the regulartory agencies they are (slowly) creating. The current system of wait and see is working, but Taiwan is a bad issue that hurting our relations and empowers the few remaining hard-line communists. If Taiwan were resolved, the security situation in East Asia would be greatly eased.
No, but it would normalize our relations, and, more importantly, weaken the CCP.Kathianne said:Bottom line in your opinion, if Taiwan is absorbed without interference, China and US will be buddies? No more problems?
Mr.Conley said:It would have made today a lot easier, and I believe would further weaken the grip of the Chinese Communist Party.
Even at the cost of enslaving a billion Chinese for another generation?5stringJeff said:I would rather face a hard situation, having allowed millions of Taiwanese to remain FREE, than to allow Communism to engulf Taiwan.
Mr.Conley said:Even at the cost of enslaving a billion Chinese for another generation?
Quite correct, expanded economic freedom in China can, has, and will lead to greater political freedom.5stringJeff said:Quite utilitarian of you. However, I believe that increasing economic freedoms in China will eventually allow for greater political freedom. After all, Gorbachev allowed a little bit of economic freedom, and look where it got him!
