Who Do You Think’s Gonna Win In November...?

[Katzndogz]

The numbers aren't there for obama. He's going to have to pull off some massive fraud or something else to get them there.

Perhaps protests and violence designed to prevent people from voting, attacks on voting polls, some civil urest.

 

[Big Black Dog]

I have two predictions... Who ever gathers in the most electoral votes in November will be the next President. Second prediction is the next President will be Romney.

 

[freedombecki]

I think Obama will kill in the debates, and when Romney has to defend MORE tax cuts on the rich, destroying Medicare, and growing the military to bigger than the rest of the world combined...ideological idiocy. It'll be time for some facts, not blather.

That would be a craven thing to do. Why would Obama chicken out of facing the music? If he does that, he will be thought a coward. If he goes through with the debate, he's a rather good speaker, and it might assure people he would account to whoever asks him hard questions in the future.
Just sayin.

 

[freedombecki]

I have two predictions... Who ever gathers in the most electoral votes in November will be the next President. Second prediction is the next President will be Romney.

<you must spread some reputation around before giving to Big Black Dog again>
That would be so nice.

 

[asaratis]

The numbers aren't there for obama. He's going to have to pull off some massive fraud or something else to get them there.

Perhaps protests and violence designed to prevent people from voting, attacks on voting polls, some civil unrest.

I would not rule that out at all. I think the only way for Obama to win is to garner all the dead people's votes, the fictitious people's votes, the multiple votes and possibly to disallow all of the military absentee ballots.

 

[Mac1958]

.

As of today (05/23/2012), the RCP 2012 Election Map shows the following:

Solid or lean Obama: 227 electoral votes
Solid or lean Romney: 170 electoral votes
Tossup states: 141 electoral votes

Tossup Electoral Votes
Arizona 11
Colorado 9
Florida 29
Iowa 6
Michigan 16
Missouri 10
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10


You may think your guy is going to win because you don't like the other guy, but the Electoral College's opinion is a bit more important. Romney has work to do. He definitely has time, but he has work to do.


.

 

[BluePhantom]

Obama will win for the following reasons.

1) The electoral college favors him.

2) He's more likable than Romney. (then again, so is the Ebola virus).

3) His followers are more enthusiastic.

The only thing that makes Romney viable is that a bunch of wealthy sugar daddies are paying a lot of money to keep him afloat. That got him past Santorum and Gingrich, but the Media is going to expose the light to that.

How does the electoral college favor Obama?

It doesn't. Not by a long shot, but JoeB lives in dream land when it comes to his fantasy that everyone hates Mormons as much as he does.

The electoral college is very tight right now but will play in Romney's favor. It stands to reason that Obama is not going to do any better this year than he did in 2008. On election day 2008 Obama's popularity was soaring, the market had just crashed and people were irate with the GOP because they were hemorrhaging money, their retirement accounts and 401ks were taking a nose dive, etc. The Democrats, to their credit, did an excellent job of blaming the GOP and the result was a massacre.

Well...things have changed. The economy hasn't improved. Obama's popularity is nowhere near where it was four years ago. People are pissed about the ACA and record levels of debt. So to suggest that Obama will come close to matching his performance in 2008 is completely unrealistic.

Well you know....despite all the things going in Obama's favor in 2008 he still only took Florida with 51%, Virginia with 53%, North Carolina with 50%, Ohio with only 52%....so we look at the EV count and say "wow what a slam dunk in 2008" but those swing states went to Obama by some pretty slim majorities even with a lot of things going very strongly in his favor. That won't be the case this year so Obama will perform worse than in 2008 and those swing states will be much tougher for Obama to win.

The current trends seem to bear this out. Florida is currently Romney +6 and rising, North Carolina is trending hard toward Romney, Ohio is still pretty much a toss up but if and when Romney names Rob Portman as his running mate Obama can kiss Ohio goodbye, Wisconsin is trending toward Romney.

Now one thing I will agree with nobrain about is that a lot of things can and will change between now and November, but the current trends nationwide is a massive move toward "undecided" especially among Independents and that's very bad news for Obama and ought to bring JoeB to tears because while both Obama and Romney's support among Independents has fallen since Santorum dropped out of the race, Obama has lost 6% support and Romney has lost 4% with a current average of a 41/36 Romney advantage among that voting block. Undecided or "other" voters among Independents have gone from 13% on April 17th to a whopping 23% today but they are leaving Obama at a faster clip.

 

[Wry Catcher]

a poll...

not for who you want to win...

but who you think will win...

Orioles over the Nationals in seven.

 

[BluePhantom]

.

As of today (05/23/2012), the RCP 2012 Election Map shows the following:

Solid or lean Obama: 227 electoral votes
Solid or lean Romney: 170 electoral votes
Tossup states: 141 electoral votes

Tossup Electoral Votes
Arizona 11
Colorado 9
Florida 29
Iowa 6
Michigan 16
Missouri 10
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10


You may think your guy is going to win because you don't like the other guy, but the Electoral College's opinion is a bit more important. Romney has work to do. He definitely has time, but he has work to do.


.

He does have work to do, but some of RCP's toss-up states are laughable. Arizona is NOT going to go to Obama. I lived there for 15 years and I can assure you that the idea of Arizona going blue is the most flat out hilarious thing I have ever heard. Even PPP that lately has been giving Obama a 5 point advantage against the average of the other professional pollsters has Romney +7 in Arizona. Dream the hell on.

There's not a single poll on RCP's board that has Missouri going to Obama and you have to go back a year to find one in the margin of error. Florida is just about gone for Obama. There's not a single poll in Michigan recently that is inside the margin of error. That's Obama's state to lose. I mean come on.

 

[bayoubill]

a poll...

not for who you want to win...

but who you think will win...

Orioles over the Nationals in seven.

lol... you're dreamin' for sure... ;-)

 

[Mac1958]

.

As of today (05/23/2012), the RCP 2012 Election Map shows the following:

Solid or lean Obama: 227 electoral votes
Solid or lean Romney: 170 electoral votes
Tossup states: 141 electoral votes

Tossup Electoral Votes
Arizona 11
Colorado 9
Florida 29
Iowa 6
Michigan 16
Missouri 10
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10


You may think your guy is going to win because you don't like the other guy, but the Electoral College's opinion is a bit more important. Romney has work to do. He definitely has time, but he has work to do.


.

He does have work to do, but some of RCP's toss-up states are laughable. Arizona is NOT going to go to Obama. I lived there for 15 years and I can assure you that the idea of Arizona going blue is the most flat out hilarious thing I have ever heard. Even PPP that lately has been giving Obama a 5 point advantage against the average of the other professional pollsters has Romney +7 in Arizona. Dream the hell on.

There's not a single poll on RCP's board that has Missouri going to Obama and you have to go back a year to find one in the margin of error. Florida is just about gone for Obama. There's not a single poll in Michigan recently that is inside the margin of error. That's Obama's state to lose. I mean come on.

Yup, could be. I'm not following the trends in the swing state polls, so I don't know what to expect. Seems to me Romney's biggest cause for hope is the fact that he was relatively close after that ridiculous nomination circus. I'd guess the Dems weren't expecting that.

.

 

[Uncensored2008]

I predict a GOP landslide come November... then it's gonna get real ugly.

Agreed, the GOP will own the mess and the DNC press sure won't let them blame anyone.

 

[Uncensored2008]

I predict a Dem landslide.

I predict that you have an IQ of less than 20.

 

[Buford]

Unless Obama can crap bricks of gold every hour on the hour, I think he is doomed.

 

[BluePhantom]

Yup, could be. I'm not following the trends in the swing state polls, so I don't know what to expect. Seems to me Romney's biggest cause for hope is the fact that he was relatively close after that ridiculous nomination circus. I'd guess the Dems weren't expecting that.

.

Right now the number of state polls are frustratingly few and so in some states like Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, etc...there's just a whole lot of nothing to look at. But I am tracking what there is to track on my polling analysis thread. Weekly reports for poll averages, trends, state trends, demographics, and likely voter scenarios are all broken down and posted on Wednesday mornings. You are certainly invited to have a look and contribute if you wish. My only request is to keep things as objective as possible when you post. With only one or two exceptions (ahem: NYC and nobrain) everyone has stayed pretty true to that rule and it's made it a pretty nice place to see what's going on from multiple angles.

 

[Mac1958]

Yup, could be. I'm not following the trends in the swing state polls, so I don't know what to expect. Seems to me Romney's biggest cause for hope is the fact that he was relatively close after that ridiculous nomination circus. I'd guess the Dems weren't expecting that.

.

Right now the number of state polls are frustratingly few and so in some states like Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, etc...there's just a whole lot of nothing to look at. But I am tracking what there is to track on my polling analysis thread. Weekly reports for poll averages, trends, state trends, demographics, and likely voter scenarios are all broken down and posted on Wednesday mornings. You are certainly invited to have a look and contribute if you wish. My only request is to keep things as objective as possible when you post. With only one or two exceptions (ahem: NYC and nobrain) everyone has stayed pretty true to that rule and it's made it a pretty nice place to see what's going on from multiple angles.

Cool, thanks. I'm assuming that we'll get more and better data as the election nears. Isn't one problem that not every state has reliable polling data sources, even close to the election?

.

 

[Uncensored2008]

I think Obama is going to win..and the Senate and House might go Democrat.

Those Republican debates are going to come back and bite really hard.

Yes, but then you're a partisan sycophant without a shred of integrity.

At this moment, Obama will lose.

• The European economy is collapsing, meaning any recovery is a pipe dream, even if someone competent were in charge. Obama is not competent, so the economy is getting real ugly.
  
• Gas is skyrocketing again. That you think it's all BOOOOSHs fault is irrelevant, Americans vote their wallets and this is causing severe pain
  
• Obamacare is extremely unpopular and motivates independents to embrace Romney as a means of repealing it
  
• Obama has increased the debt more in 3 years than Bush did in 8, despite flaming Bush for spending
  
• Obama has a complete lack of empathy for the millions out of work, adopting the guise of Marie Antoinette
  
• Obama is in bed with the Wall Street banks and reeks of hypocrisy by damning Romney for the same sins
  
• Obama caused the credit rating of the nation to be lowered

 

[Uncensored2008]

As far as I can see, the odds are about 60-40 towards an Obama victory.

Based on your partisanship.

The facts sure don't support that conclusion.

 

[Uncensored2008]

This person probably voted for Bush, twice.

You probably voted for Obama several dozen times.

 

[The T]

Unless Obama can crap bricks of gold every hour on the hour, I think he is doomed.

He's choked the Goose that lays golden eggs so much that all it produces now is feces.