When will voters blame Obama?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by DavidS, Mar 5, 2009.

  1. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    An interesting article from my old friend Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right.

    When Will Voters Blame Obama?

    #fullpost {display:none;} Buried in the latest NBC/WSJ survey (.pdf) is a question asking voters who they blame for the country's economic problems. Currently, 8 percent of voters say that Obama's policies are "mostly responsible" for the poor economy and another 6 percent blame him in part. But the longer the crisis lasts, the less patient voters will be:

    [​IMG]

    We can translate these responses into a graph -- doing our best to translate the poll's somewhat vague wording into precise numbers -- and compare them to a related question about when voters expect the recession to end.

    [​IMG]

    Obama crosses the 50 percent threshold at almost exactly 18 months from now, which would mean September 2010. At that point, a majority of voters say they will hold Obama accountable for the performance of economy.

    Perhaps not coincidentally, 18 months is also about the point at which a majority of voters expect the recession to have ended. By comparison, of the several dozen economists polled in the Wall Street Journal's monthly forecasting survey, 65 percent expect the recession to have ended by the third quarter of 2009, and 100 percent anticipate its conclusion by the end of 2010. (As a caveat, the Journal's forecasters are generally a bullish bunch).

    [​IMG]

    So this seems like pretty good news for Obama. The public has very low expectations for the economy -- the average voter is more pessimistic about the economy than all but the most pessimistic economists. And it will be quite some time yet before the public pins most of the blame for the economy on Obama.

    Cutting against this somewhat are two other factors. Firstly, it is generally believed -- and I'll find a link for you on this if I can -- that voters react slowly to changes in economic well-being. That is, if the economy exits the recession in July 2010, it might take a few months for the voters to notice, and this might or might not be soon enough for the Democrats to avoid blame at the midterm elections. Secondly, the unemployment rate -- perhaps the economic indicator that ordinary voters are most concerned with -- has been among the last things to recover in the so-called jobless recoveries following recent recessions. It's plausible that GDP growth will dip back into positive territory in the third quarter of 2009, for example, but that we won't see a material rebound in the employment numbers until months later.

    On balance, the public seems prepared to be pretty darned patient with Obama. The question is whether public will in fact be as judicious as it expects itself to be after some number of additional months of dire economic headlines. On that front, I'm a bit skeptical, and I'd expect Obama's approval rating to lose a couple of points each month until the recession ends. This is why it makes a lot of sense for Obama to be pursuing a very ambitious agenda right now. If the economy recovers within the next year or so -- beating voters' expectations -- then Obama's approval ratings will probably wind up being quite high. But until that recovery occurs, Obama's approval ratings are likely to get worse before they get better.
     
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  2. Article 15
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    Article 15 Dr. House slayer

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    You mean the American public didn't expect him to wave a magic wand and fix the economy overnight?
     
  3. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    No. Only idiotic die-hard conservatives do and they wouldn't vote for him anyway. Obama has a free pass this year to do whatever the hell he wants. This will be the only year of his entire presidency that he can actually DO something. The next 7 years will be just keeping status quo. Think about it: Next year Democrats are up for re-election and Obama will want to help them. 2011, Obama will basically start strategizing for campaigning and turning the entire county blue. 2012, election. 2013 the democrats want to win again in 2016 and Obama's policies will be put under a microscope for that election. Americans want change - they voted for change and anything Obama does is change.

    Americans don't buy into the whole socialism BS because no one really knows what it is. Americans hate rich people so they'll have no problem with the rich people getting taxed more. And if Obama introduces and passes a government run health insurance, it's over for conservatives - because what are they going to do? Disband a health insurance program for millions of Americans?
     
  4. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    Free pass? No - Obama's approval rating is currently in decline.

    The 24/7 news cycle will eventually begin to question his policies more directly if things don't show improvement within the next few months.

    If things worsen by summer, Obama's approval rating will hover around 50% at best, and the Democrat Congress will fall below 20% - opening the door for 2010 elections.

    The populist movement in this nation is stirring - building momentum, and could very well overtake the political landscape in the not too distant future. Very similar vibe going on right now as was taking place around 1978...
     
  5. WillowTree
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    WillowTree Diamond Member

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    That's what the moron promised.
     
  6. WillowTree
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    WillowTree Diamond Member

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    That's what you are counting on isn't it? hate? Class warfare? Racial warfare.. See? I knew you would admit it one day,, this is nothing more than a social and economic war.. and most of we smart Americans see it for what it is.. Marxism.
     
  7. Meister
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    Meister VIP Member Supporting Member

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    That's quite a fantasy that you congered up. But, it is your fantasy and not America's.
    Enjoy it.
     
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  8. Xenophon
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    Xenophon Gone and forgotten

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    People have already begun to blame him, and his spending is making it worse not better.

    You don't have to be an economist to know it's a mistake to spend money you don't have on things you don't need, and to raise taxes and makes things unfavorable for business during a severe recession.
     
  9. statusquobuster
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    statusquobuster BANNED

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    One of the first and best times to blame Obama is when, as expected, he signs the current fiscal year spending bill with many thousands of pork earmarks put there by corrupt members of Congress. Obama promised in the campaign to get rid of earmarks, but now he is rationalizing why it is okay to waste some $12 billion of taxpayers dollars on stupid earmarks. At least John McCain retains his integrity and has tried to kill this pork-laden spending bill.
     
  10. WillowTree
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    WillowTree Diamond Member

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    You know of course the reason the librals are offering up??? "That was last year's budget." You know why last year's budget is being voted on now???? Cause it was so stupid and so massive George Bush told the congresscritters he would veto it.. So the congresscritters held it back til the obamalama acquired the office.. he's going to sign it,, he would not dare veto it.. :lol:
     

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