Statistikhengst
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Mike Huckabee, former Republican presidential candidate from 2008 who lost in the primaries to John McCain, and likely with his eyes on the prize again in 2016, recently said that he might bolt from the GOP over gay marriage, should the GOP "cave" on the issue.
This got me to thinking.....what would happen were the Evangelical / Fundamentalistic Christians to bolt from the GOP and form their own party?
First, let's take a look at some maps.
Here is the region that is considered the "Bible Belt" of our Union:
Source:
Bible Belt - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
Let's overlay that with a map, by county:
Now, that information is somewhat out of date, but I bet that the county sketch is pretty much the same today. The red in that map represents the Baptists, the majority of which, at least in the South, are Southern Baptists.
Now, let's take a look at Evangelicals as a larger group:
In this map, we see three states where Evangelicals account for more than 50% of those states' populations: Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma. Interesting that those three are right on the old Mason-Dixon Line. Five states in relatively close proximity to those three states have Evangelical Christians as being between 41%-50% of their respective populations: Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina and Kentucky.
Statistically, this can very well mean that those 8 states could be states with enough advantage in the general population for a third party (Christian Party) candidate to actually win some of those states in a National Presidential Election.
So, let's say that in 2016, the GOP bursts apart, the Fundamentalistic Christians (Evangelicals, Southern Baptists) bolt from the Republican Party and form their own political party: The American Christian Party, with Mike Huckabee as their nominee. And let's say, for good measure, that the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton and the GOP nominates Rand Paul.
With the GOP split, it goes without saying that the core DEM states on the East Coast and the West Coast are easily massive landslide victories for Clinton, with the GOP vote split. It also would mean massive landslide for her in the usual crew of battleground suspects: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, to a lesser degree, Iowa.
Were the GOP to split, then a massive landslide for the Democrats would be the logical result and could result in a map something like this:
In this scenario map above, where you see the word "undecided", that would be Huckabee, and I could see him taking the three states where Evangelicals are more than 51% of the state's population, plus at least one more state, in this case, Alabama. I could see Rand Paul carrying his home state of Kentucky, neighboring West Virginia, South Carolina, the three core states in the West (Utah, Idaho and Wyoming) and Alaska. And Hillary would easily win the rest. Now, what is missing on this map would be color differentiations to show narrow margins vs. wide margins. Since a Democrat wins NY by +25 to +29 in a two man race, in a three man race, the margin could shoot up to as high as +40. And with the GOP vote split in a state like North Dakota, Hillary could win by +3 to +5.
On the NPV level, it could be something like:
Clinton: 49%
Paul: 33%
Huckabee: 17%
other: 1%
Margin: Clinton +16
(In 1956, when Eisenhower won with +15, he won 41 out of 48 states. In 1988, when Bush 41 won by almost +8, he won 40 out of 50 states)
Now, this is just an exercise in possibilities. I am not saying that this is going to happen at all.
But what I am saying is that were the GOP to lose it's fundamental Christian base, it would stand absolutely no chance on the national level of winning the Presidency, period. One only has to look at 1912 or 1992 to see what unbelievably lopsided results a 3-man race with this kind of dynamic can bring with it. We have also seen, in 1948 and 1968, a Southern third party candidate (Strom Thurmond, George Wallace) win 4-5 states in the South, and with the South being the home of the Bible Belt, it only stands to reason that a Christian Party candidate, with his base in the South, could definitely win some states - it's simple numbers, folks. But this would also pretty much kill the GOP in the rest of the country, for even in states like Missouri, where the DEMS may only get 42% of the vote, that is enough to easily win against a GOP split into two parties.
Food for thought.
This got me to thinking.....what would happen were the Evangelical / Fundamentalistic Christians to bolt from the GOP and form their own party?
First, let's take a look at some maps.
Here is the region that is considered the "Bible Belt" of our Union:
Source:
Bible Belt - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
Let's overlay that with a map, by county:
Now, that information is somewhat out of date, but I bet that the county sketch is pretty much the same today. The red in that map represents the Baptists, the majority of which, at least in the South, are Southern Baptists.
Now, let's take a look at Evangelicals as a larger group:
In this map, we see three states where Evangelicals account for more than 50% of those states' populations: Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma. Interesting that those three are right on the old Mason-Dixon Line. Five states in relatively close proximity to those three states have Evangelical Christians as being between 41%-50% of their respective populations: Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina and Kentucky.
Statistically, this can very well mean that those 8 states could be states with enough advantage in the general population for a third party (Christian Party) candidate to actually win some of those states in a National Presidential Election.
So, let's say that in 2016, the GOP bursts apart, the Fundamentalistic Christians (Evangelicals, Southern Baptists) bolt from the Republican Party and form their own political party: The American Christian Party, with Mike Huckabee as their nominee. And let's say, for good measure, that the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton and the GOP nominates Rand Paul.
With the GOP split, it goes without saying that the core DEM states on the East Coast and the West Coast are easily massive landslide victories for Clinton, with the GOP vote split. It also would mean massive landslide for her in the usual crew of battleground suspects: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, to a lesser degree, Iowa.
Were the GOP to split, then a massive landslide for the Democrats would be the logical result and could result in a map something like this:
In this scenario map above, where you see the word "undecided", that would be Huckabee, and I could see him taking the three states where Evangelicals are more than 51% of the state's population, plus at least one more state, in this case, Alabama. I could see Rand Paul carrying his home state of Kentucky, neighboring West Virginia, South Carolina, the three core states in the West (Utah, Idaho and Wyoming) and Alaska. And Hillary would easily win the rest. Now, what is missing on this map would be color differentiations to show narrow margins vs. wide margins. Since a Democrat wins NY by +25 to +29 in a two man race, in a three man race, the margin could shoot up to as high as +40. And with the GOP vote split in a state like North Dakota, Hillary could win by +3 to +5.
On the NPV level, it could be something like:
Clinton: 49%
Paul: 33%
Huckabee: 17%
other: 1%
Margin: Clinton +16
(In 1956, when Eisenhower won with +15, he won 41 out of 48 states. In 1988, when Bush 41 won by almost +8, he won 40 out of 50 states)
Now, this is just an exercise in possibilities. I am not saying that this is going to happen at all.
But what I am saying is that were the GOP to lose it's fundamental Christian base, it would stand absolutely no chance on the national level of winning the Presidency, period. One only has to look at 1912 or 1992 to see what unbelievably lopsided results a 3-man race with this kind of dynamic can bring with it. We have also seen, in 1948 and 1968, a Southern third party candidate (Strom Thurmond, George Wallace) win 4-5 states in the South, and with the South being the home of the Bible Belt, it only stands to reason that a Christian Party candidate, with his base in the South, could definitely win some states - it's simple numbers, folks. But this would also pretty much kill the GOP in the rest of the country, for even in states like Missouri, where the DEMS may only get 42% of the vote, that is enough to easily win against a GOP split into two parties.
Food for thought.
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