Was the Sketcher's selloff overdone?

MarathonMike

Diamond Member
Dec 30, 2014
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A 27% bashing for lowering guidance for the next quarter seems like an overshoot to me. It's on my short list for next week as a trade, not a buy and hold. Any opinions on this one?
 
Thanks for mentioning that one. Looks like a possibility but it may be a while until they recover. I checked their share price history. They were about $10 per share for six years, then jumped up to $50 in mid-2015, but ended the year around $30. They stayed around $30 for two years, then jumped up to $40 at the end of 2017 and now are in another plunge back to $30. I've read a few commentaries that it's a good buy at the moment; might get a dead cat bounce early next week if enough people pile on, so your quick trade might work out.
 
A 27% bashing for lowering guidance for the next quarter seems like an overshoot to me. It's on my short list for next week as a trade, not a buy and hold. Any opinions on this one?
What other considerations do you weigh other than a seeming anomaly in price action?
 
When I was Shoe Buyer for Dillard's dept stores, Skechers was a new brand that came out.... at first they sold Doc Martens that were popular at the time...

I know the owners.... Green something or other....oh yeah Greenbergs....father and son....Robert, the dad....I believed owned a footwear company that he created before Skechers called LA Gear.....don't know if they are still in business? I think it went public a few years after he created the brand...

Then him and his son Mike, first started with Skechers as a distributor of Dr.Marten's shoes....kind of a thick soled funky looking oxford that went well with the grunge look back then.... but that only lasted a year or two....then they transformed their footwear line in to very junior lifestyle shoes....all had a funky edgy look and it took off!

Haven't followed the footwear industry for a decade or so, so I can't help you on this stock situation....
 
A 27% bashing for lowering guidance for the next quarter seems like an overshoot to me. It's on my short list for next week as a trade, not a buy and hold. Any opinions on this one?
What other considerations do you weigh other than a seeming anomaly in price action?
With SKX, they have delivered solid earnings for the last few quarters including the current one. According to everything I read and heard on CNBC was that the selloff was specific to negative guidance for the next quarter only, not for the year. Aside from that I believe they make excellent products and their advertising is very effective.
 
everything as far as footwear is made in CHINA, or darn near most shoes are made in China....

maybe the outlook for Skechers is related to trade, and trade wars looming....

look in to that angle...
 
A 27% bashing for lowering guidance for the next quarter seems like an overshoot to me. It's on my short list for next week as a trade, not a buy and hold. Any opinions on this one?
What other considerations do you weigh other than a seeming anomaly in price action?
With SKX, they have delivered solid earnings for the last few quarters including the current one. According to everything I read and heard on CNBC was that the selloff was specific to negative guidance for the next quarter only, not for the year. Aside from that I believe they make excellent products and their advertising is very effective.
If I may ...how did you get into trading? Guy at work kept pestering me into taking this 5 grand class with promises of riches but I declined. He went on to lose enough he's still working instead of retiring early. Dont know what secret sauce they sold him. I assumed it was an education in some sort of proprietary system....something more than this stock is down maybe too much........please dont take offense, thats not what I'm saying you are doing which is why I am asking.
 
A 27% bashing for lowering guidance for the next quarter seems like an overshoot to me. It's on my short list for next week as a trade, not a buy and hold. Any opinions on this one?
What other considerations do you weigh other than a seeming anomaly in price action?
With SKX, they have delivered solid earnings for the last few quarters including the current one. According to everything I read and heard on CNBC was that the selloff was specific to negative guidance for the next quarter only, not for the year. Aside from that I believe they make excellent products and their advertising is very effective.
If I may ...how did you get into trading? Guy at work kept pestering me into taking this 5 grand class with promises of riches but I declined. He went on to lose enough he's still working instead of retiring early. Dont know what secret sauce they sold him. I assumed it was an education in some sort of proprietary system....something more than this stock is down maybe too much........please dont take offense, thats not what I'm saying you are doing which is why I am asking.
I am not presenting myself as a stock analyst. If you read my original post I was asking for other opinions on Sketchers. To answer your question I am self taught and have been doing my own stock trading for 30 years. I also do not have an financial account manager. I do it all myself. Between stocks, real estate and my day job as an engineer, I retired comfortably. I trade now not out of necessity but because I enjoy it. That's all 100% true but you can choose to believe or not believe it.
 
A 27% bashing for lowering guidance for the next quarter seems like an overshoot to me. It's on my short list for next week as a trade, not a buy and hold. Any opinions on this one?
What other considerations do you weigh other than a seeming anomaly in price action?
With SKX, they have delivered solid earnings for the last few quarters including the current one. According to everything I read and heard on CNBC was that the selloff was specific to negative guidance for the next quarter only, not for the year. Aside from that I believe they make excellent products and their advertising is very effective.
If I may ...how did you get into trading? Guy at work kept pestering me into taking this 5 grand class with promises of riches but I declined. He went on to lose enough he's still working instead of retiring early. Dont know what secret sauce they sold him. I assumed it was an education in some sort of proprietary system....something more than this stock is down maybe too much........please dont take offense, thats not what I'm saying you are doing which is why I am asking.
I am not presenting myself as a stock analyst. If you read my original post I was asking for other opinions on Sketchers. To answer your question I am self taught and have been doing my own stock trading for 30 years. I also do not have an financial account manager. I do it all myself. Between stocks, real estate and my day job as an engineer, I retired comfortably. I trade now not out of necessity but because I enjoy it. That's all 100% true but you can choose to believe or not believe it.
Oh I believe it. Wasn't questioning anything you wrote, just wondering if you use some sort of system. Chart analysis? I am strictly buy and hold. Use IBD rules of buy and sell loosely...one of em is dont buy something going down,,,,,chances are its going to continue down. I realize that doesn't apply in day trading realm which is why I was asking how you check out a potential target? I have no experience and am interested in what you think matters ..
 
I have found what works best for me is a combination of chart analysis, especially buying momentum at certain levels combined with all the news I can consume on the particular stock. Then based on historical tendencies over the last year, I pick a buy and a sell point. The most important thing for me is stick to the plan and don't get greedy.

It's a little trickier these days with news and I am very cautious with a company like SKX. It would only be a candidate for a day trade at this point IMO.
 
I have found what works best for me is a combination of chart analysis, especially buying momentum at certain levels combined with all the news I can consume on the particular stock. Then based on historical tendencies over the last year, I pick a buy and a sell point. The most important thing for me is stick to the plan and don't get greedy.

It's a little trickier these days with news and I am very cautious with a company like SKX. It would only be a candidate for a day trade at this point IMO.
I assume you have a real time trading program to stay current on shorts, longs, current volume? I dont think I could ever be talked into trying my hand at it especially during the correction started and the market was down 600 and then up 400 in mere minutes......and I believe the bots know everyone else's position and and bankroll meaning they know where the market break points are in either direction.
 
I have found what works best for me is a combination of chart analysis, especially buying momentum at certain levels combined with all the news I can consume on the particular stock. Then based on historical tendencies over the last year, I pick a buy and a sell point. The most important thing for me is stick to the plan and don't get greedy.

It's a little trickier these days with news and I am very cautious with a company like SKX. It would only be a candidate for a day trade at this point IMO.
I assume you have a real time trading program to stay current on shorts, longs, current volume? I dont think I could ever be talked into trying my hand at it especially during the correction started and the market was down 600 and then up 400 in mere minutes......and I believe the bots know everyone else's position and and bankroll meaning they know where the market break points are in either direction.

True but I find it simpler to use beta>1 and either high dividend or high dividend growth. After all is said and done I invest on the principle that dividends and beta are the hardest metrics to fake. Mike and I go round and round in a civil fashion but I think it weirds him out that my goal is averaging 0.03-5% better/day than the market in down turns and doing average plus than the average in upturns.
 
A 27% bashing for lowering guidance for the next quarter seems like an overshoot to me. It's on my short list for next week as a trade, not a buy and hold. Any opinions on this one?
What other considerations do you weigh other than a seeming anomaly in price action?
With SKX, they have delivered solid earnings for the last few quarters including the current one. According to everything I read and heard on CNBC was that the selloff was specific to negative guidance for the next quarter only, not for the year. Aside from that I believe they make excellent products and their advertising is very effective.
If I may ...how did you get into trading? Guy at work kept pestering me into taking this 5 grand class with promises of riches but I declined. He went on to lose enough he's still working instead of retiring early. Dont know what secret sauce they sold him. I assumed it was an education in some sort of proprietary system....something more than this stock is down maybe too much........please dont take offense, thats not what I'm saying you are doing which is why I am asking.
I am not presenting myself as a stock analyst. If you read my original post I was asking for other opinions on Sketchers. To answer your question I am self taught and have been doing my own stock trading for 30 years. I also do not have an financial account manager. I do it all myself. Between stocks, real estate and my day job as an engineer, I retired comfortably. I trade now not out of necessity but because I enjoy it. That's all 100% true but you can choose to believe or not believe it.

I believe it because my situation is similar. I started trading shortly after the dot.com crash while working as a financial analyst. Since retirement, I've kept it up as a hobby. I'm not in the Warren Buffet class, but I do fairly well compared to the S&P 500 index. I have to take the annual Required Minimum Distribution from my 403b and IRA accounts; the after-tax distribution goes into my hobby account.
 
I suspect the major problem with the market currently is that the EU is going to impose restrictions on tech next month only no one knows how it is going to affect the US v. Japan v. China v. India.
 
I have found what works best for me is a combination of chart analysis, especially buying momentum at certain levels combined with all the news I can consume on the particular stock. Then based on historical tendencies over the last year, I pick a buy and a sell point. The most important thing for me is stick to the plan and don't get greedy.

It's a little trickier these days with news and I am very cautious with a company like SKX. It would only be a candidate for a day trade at this point IMO.
I assume you have a real time trading program to stay current on shorts, longs, current volume? I dont think I could ever be talked into trying my hand at it especially during the correction started and the market was down 600 and then up 400 in mere minutes......and I believe the bots know everyone else's position and and bankroll meaning they know where the market break points are in either direction.

True but I find it simpler to use beta>1 and either high dividend or high dividend growth. After all is said and done I invest on the principle that dividends and beta are the hardest metrics to fake. Mike and I go round and round in a civil fashion but I think it weirds him out that my goal is averaging 0.03-5% better/day than the market in down turns and doing average plus than the average in upturns.
Not at all, it just shows there are many successful ways to 'play' the market. That's what makes it interesting. I know a guy who is a total contrarian, shorts most of the time, and does really well.
 
yeah it is strange that way. I was used to the old saws about reinvestment being 30-60% of all returns then this month I found out that 1929 until today 95.8% of all returns were the result of reinvestment according to Ned Davis research.By extension virtually all of the rest of the gains were the result of issues going from Contenders to Challengers to Champions. Now would be an excellent time to buy May and June puts on the FAANG stocks. The switch from Growth to Income issues should be followed by the bond market rallying hard.
 
I have found what works best for me is a combination of chart analysis, especially buying momentum at certain levels combined with all the news I can consume on the particular stock. Then based on historical tendencies over the last year, I pick a buy and a sell point. The most important thing for me is stick to the plan and don't get greedy.

It's a little trickier these days with news and I am very cautious with a company like SKX. It would only be a candidate for a day trade at this point IMO.
I assume you have a real time trading program to stay current on shorts, longs, current volume? I dont think I could ever be talked into trying my hand at it especially during the correction started and the market was down 600 and then up 400 in mere minutes......and I believe the bots know everyone else's position and and bankroll meaning they know where the market break points are in either direction.
yes robo-trading has added a new wrinkle but that doesn't occur often enough to concern me. In other words it hasn't burned me yet. lol I use marketpro provided by merrill edge which is my trading account.
 

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