Will the market freak out or shrug 3% on the 10 year note?

[MarathonMike]

Sitting at 2.95% now, and just about certain to cross 3% next week. What do you think, has this been anticipated to the point it won't make a difference or will their be a psychological sell off? I think (based on nothing other than a SWAG) that if it hovers around 3.0% it won't be significant. If it moves to 3.1% by the end of the week I think there will be a reactive sell off.

 

[william the wie]

sounds reasonable but you have several wild cards that can upset your calculations:

FAANG leadership is fading earlier than expected.

There are real problems of affordability and supply shortages in the housing markets.

Weather records are being upset by the sun spot minimum.

Blue state finances are getting critical.

plus other wild cards.