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I'm confused, shouldn't the Iranians be against what is happening in Egypt? after all they went through something similar to this with the Green movement, they should hope that the people don't succeed because there are alot of unhappy young people in Iran as well.
The situation is a lot more complicated than that.
Mubarek has cooperated with the West and with Israel, and has opposed Iranian influence in the region. The regime has, among other things, assisted with the Gaza blockade. That affects Hamas, which is an Iranian client. It has also worked as a power broker among Arab nations and between Arabs and Israel, which also limits Iranian hegemony and takes some pressure off Israel. The possibility of nurturing an Islamic client state in Egypt would put Iran in control of, among other things, Suez and entry to Gaza. You think they have no hands in the cookie jar already?
The Iranians have reason to want to see Mubarek gone.
I'm confused, shouldn't the Iranians be against what is happening in Egypt? after all they went through something similar to this with the Green movement, they should hope that the people don't succeed because there are alot of unhappy young people in Iran as well.
The situation is a lot more complicated than that.
Mubarek has cooperated with the West and with Israel, and has opposed Iranian influence in the region. The regime has, among other things, assisted with the Gaza blockade. That affects Hamas, which is an Iranian client. It has also worked as a power broker among Arab nations and between Arabs and Israel, which also limits Iranian hegemony and takes some pressure off Israel. The possibility of nurturing an Islamic client state in Egypt would put Iran in control of, among other things, Suez and entry to Gaza. You think they have no hands in the cookie jar already?
The Iranians have reason to want to see Mubarek gone.
Oh I'm sure the Iranians would love to see Mubarak gone there is no question about that, but are they sure they want to see it done this way, by an armed revolt from the people? like I said Iran has went through this before and there is still alot of unrest in that country, the fall of Mubarak could inspire the Iranian people to do try again to overthrow the clerics. If I were the Iranians I would distance myself from the Egyptians until this is finished.
The situation is a lot more complicated than that.
Mubarek has cooperated with the West and with Israel, and has opposed Iranian influence in the region. The regime has, among other things, assisted with the Gaza blockade. That affects Hamas, which is an Iranian client. It has also worked as a power broker among Arab nations and between Arabs and Israel, which also limits Iranian hegemony and takes some pressure off Israel. The possibility of nurturing an Islamic client state in Egypt would put Iran in control of, among other things, Suez and entry to Gaza. You think they have no hands in the cookie jar already?
The Iranians have reason to want to see Mubarek gone.
Oh I'm sure the Iranians would love to see Mubarak gone there is no question about that, but are they sure they want to see it done this way, by an armed revolt from the people? like I said Iran has went through this before and there is still alot of unrest in that country, the fall of Mubarak could inspire the Iranian people to do try again to overthrow the clerics. If I were the Iranians I would distance myself from the Egyptians until this is finished.
How else is it going to happen?
They wouldn't be backing it if they didn't have a horse in the race to take over, either. What is the extent of Iranian ties to the Muslim Brotherhood? Do we know? They aren't the only faction involved in the power struggle over there, but they are the largest organized opposition group as of last year's (disputed) election.
Oh I'm sure the Iranians would love to see Mubarak gone there is no question about that, but are they sure they want to see it done this way, by an armed revolt from the people? like I said Iran has went through this before and there is still alot of unrest in that country, the fall of Mubarak could inspire the Iranian people to do try again to overthrow the clerics. If I were the Iranians I would distance myself from the Egyptians until this is finished.
How else is it going to happen?
They wouldn't be backing it if they didn't have a horse in the race to take over, either. What is the extent of Iranian ties to the Muslim Brotherhood? Do we know? They aren't the only faction involved in the power struggle over there, but they are the largest organized opposition group as of last year's (disputed) election.
Thats the thing I have no idea what Irans ties to the brotherhood are, if they even have any. I'm just sayin Iran needs to be careful what they wish for, because the situation that is happening right now in Egypt is Irans worst nightmare if this happened on the streets of Tehran.
How else is it going to happen?
They wouldn't be backing it if they didn't have a horse in the race to take over, either. What is the extent of Iranian ties to the Muslim Brotherhood? Do we know? They aren't the only faction involved in the power struggle over there, but they are the largest organized opposition group as of last year's (disputed) election.
Thats the thing I have no idea what Irans ties to the brotherhood are, if they even have any. I'm just sayin Iran needs to be careful what they wish for, because the situation that is happening right now in Egypt is Irans worst nightmare if this happened on the streets of Tehran.
Are they taking a chance? Sure. Are they more prepared to handle it than Egypt? Absolutely. The basij are still around, and the Iraqi border is porous enough to bring in whatever mercs they need. Egypt doesn't have the same options, nor for all that Mubarek is a bastard does he have the same level of ruthlessness - if only because of self-interest.
There's also no guarantee of Islamists taking over in Egypt if Mubarek doesn't ride it out. The doom and gloomers forget Elbaradei and his following, which is not as organized but pro-democracy and far more secular. Only time will tell what way that wind will blow.
So yes, Iran is taking a calculated risk. But not a huge one.
The protests are not Islamic in nature and neither the Ikhwan nor any other so-called "Islamist" or religious organization is the impetus behind the current unrest, though they and various al-Azhar 'ulema are among the protesters. For their part, the Ikhwan have cast their lot with El Baradei who is decidedly secular.
And with that I'm getting back to work.
The protests are not Islamic in nature and neither the Ikhwan nor any other so-called "Islamist" or religious organization is the impetus behind the current unrest, though they and various al-Azhar 'ulema are among the protesters. For their part, the Ikhwan have cast their lot with El Baradei who is decidedly secular.
And with that I'm getting back to work.
So we should just ignore the Muslim Brotherhood?
Yeah right....
How can you possibly begin to justify supporting a corrupt and sclerotic regime like that of Hosni Mubarak? Are you not familiar with the brutality of the Egyptian government against its people for decades, with its recurring fraud and faux-elections, a 30-year suspension in civil liberties that continues up to today, widespread human rights buses, summary extra-legal executions, and denial to the right of freedom of speech and assembly? Because that's quite an extreme opinion, from such freedom-loving Americans.
When tens of thousands hit the streets to decry an authoritarian regime -- calling for its overthrow, trying to overrun police, setting fires -- one might expect the arrival of army tanks would be met with fear, consternation and violence.
But not in Egypt.
The warm embrace that demonstrators gave troops this week illustrated the military's respected and central role in Egyptian society. This fact makes the armed forces potentially a kingmaker in the current crisis, while also showcasing its challenge to somehow re-establish security without undermining its popularity.
"How they behave on the streets is going to matter a whole lot," said Shibley Telhami, a Middle East expert and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank. "That's going to be the dilemma: Can they maintain the order without antagonizing the public that they need?"
The ascendance began in 1952, when the military helped overthrow Egypt's ruling monarch. Its support for a constitutional democracy and its performance in various wars and battles earned it the admiration of many Egyptians.
...
All males between ages 18 and 30 must serve one to three years, as the CIA World Factbook notes, meaning almost every family in Egypt has some personal connection to the military.
The protests are not Islamic in nature and neither the Ikhwan nor any other so-called "Islamist" or religious organization is the impetus behind the current unrest, though they and various al-Azhar 'ulema are among the protesters. For their part, the Ikhwan have cast their lot with El Baradei who is decidedly secular.
And with that I'm getting back to work.
So we should just ignore the Muslim Brotherhood?
Yeah right....
The protests are not Islamic in nature and neither the Ikhwan nor any other so-called "Islamist" or religious organization is the impetus behind the current unrest, though they and various al-Azhar 'ulema are among the protesters. For their part, the Ikhwan have cast their lot with El Baradei who is decidedly secular.
And with that I'm getting back to work.
So we should just ignore the Muslim Brotherhood?
Yeah right....
No, nor do I think anyone here has advocating ignoring them. But, maybe you can prove me wrong on that?
No, we shouldn't ignore them. We shouldn't think them being behind the protests or emerging victorious from whatever comes out of them is a foregone conclusion either, although they are participating. The picture is more subtle and complicated than "Us v. Them", and there are at least three factions - with Elbaradei's right now anyway seeming to have the upper hand.
