United States and China officials have agreed to take steps to reduce the U.S. trade deficit

[Pilot1]

I don't trust the Chinese. I don't trust the North Koreans. However, they do not respond to attempts at appeasement. They only respond when their backs are against the wall. The only chance we have of improving trade relations with China, and making progress with N. Korea, is if Trump makes them think their backs are against the wall. He was the master of doing that in the business world. Let's hope he succeeds here. If not, then at least he tried.

 

[Correll]

I don't trust the Chinese. I don't trust the North Koreans. However, they do not respond to attempts at appeasement. They only respond when their backs are against the wall. The only chance we have of improving trade relations with China, and making progress with N. Korea, is if Trump makes them think their backs are against the wall. He was the master of doing that in the business world. Let's hope he succeeds here. If not, then at least he tried.

AND THEN, he just slaps a massive tariff on their shit, and takes the matter completely out of their hands.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Which is no problem for China and the EU. So, why are they fighting it?

Because if their things cost more there we will buy less of them and they will lose sales and revenue. Basic economics.

We are not in a superior economic position. We are borrowing money to pay for consumption. That is not sustainable.

Do you use credit at your grocery store, and then borrow money to pay your credit card bill?

That is not really accurate. You are conflating our budget deficit with our trade deficit, they are two separate things that are not really that closely tied together.

Our budget deficit is due to the Govt spending more than it brings in. Our trade deficit is due to you and I and other private citizens buying things from other countries.

Nothing in your post makes any point against switching the Trade Deficit from US to them.

For the same reasons you switching from your grocery store to you growing/raising all of your own food is probably not feasible.

Nothing in your post makes any point that tariffs would not work for US.

Really, it seems all you did there, was state "Free Market" as an Appeal to Emotion.

If you are willing to trade a capitalist economic system for a socialist one, then I am sure they would work just fine. If you wish to give the government that much power over what you spend your money on, then sure they will work just fine. I am not willing to give up that freedom, for a problem that is really not even a problem

You are arguing for a failed Ideological policy.


We, as a nation, made that choice decades ago.

The results are not what we expected.

You don't get to pretend that we have not already seen that policy fail.

Our country is in the midst of the 2nd longest period of economic expansion in its history, we have basically full employment, the markets while stagnant the last few months have otherwise been consistently rising for the last 7 years, wages are going up...and yet you want to tell me that the policy has failed.

That does not seem like failure to me. Perhaps you can explain how those things equate to failure.

 

[Wry Catcher]

I don't trust the Chinese. I don't trust the North Koreans. However, they do not respond to attempts at appeasement. They only respond when their backs are against the wall. The only chance we have of improving trade relations with China, and making progress with N. Korea, is if Trump makes them think their backs are against the wall. He was the master of doing that in the business world. Let's hope he succeeds here. If not, then at least he tried.

LOL. Nothing in this ^^^ opinion piece is supported by facts or history. At best it is wishful thinking and a belief that Brinkmanship is a viable method to solve problems.

TR said it best, STFU and carry a big stick. Sadly, the current administration's propensity to use bellicose rhetoric and invest in more weapons of war while starving the State Dept. and diplomacy is myopic and dangerous.

 

[Correll]

Which is no problem for China and the EU. So, why are they fighting it?

Because if their things cost more there we will buy less of them and they will lose sales and revenue. Basic economics.

Losing sales and revenue is the core of what a Trade Deficit IS.

And all we hear, from people like you, is that our trade deficit doesn't matter.

Why is is ok when it happens to US, but not when it happens to them?

We are not in a superior economic position. We are borrowing money to pay for consumption. That is not sustainable.

Do you use credit at your grocery store, and then borrow money to pay your credit card bill?

That is not really accurate. You are conflating our budget deficit with our trade deficit, they are two separate things that are not really that closely tied together.

Our budget deficit is due to the Govt spending more than it brings in. Our trade deficit is due to you and I and other private citizens buying things from other countries.

I was actually referring to the rise is Consumer Debt.

We are borrowing money to pay for consumption.

That is not sustainable.


Teh government deficit is actually related to the Trade Deficit imo. But though a different mechanism.

Nothing in your post makes any point against switching the Trade Deficit from US to them.

For the same reasons you switching from your grocery store to you growing/raising all of your own food is probably not feasible.

Nicely vague. Completely hid the fact that you can't refute my point about switching the trade deficit from US to them, while still sounding like you were making a counter argument.

Without actually saying anything concrete for me to point out it is wrong.

Nothing in your post makes any point that tariffs would not work for US.

Really, it seems all you did there, was state "Free Market" as an Appeal to Emotion.

If you are willing to trade a capitalist economic system for a socialist one, then I am sure they would work just fine. If you wish to give the government that much power over what you spend your money on, then sure they will work just fine. I am not willing to give up that freedom, for a problem that is really not even a problem

I want Trade Policy designed to serve and protect American interests.

I am willing to discuss that seriously and honestly.

Putting tariffs on Chinese imports is not "trading a capitalist economy" for a "Socialistic one".

Stop pretending to be Braveheart.

You are arguing for a failed Ideological policy.


We, as a nation, made that choice decades ago.

The results are not what we expected.

You don't get to pretend that we have not already seen that policy fail.

Our country is in the midst of the 2nd longest period of economic expansion in its history, we have basically full employment, the markets while stagnant the last few months have otherwise been consistently rising for the last 7 years, wages are going up...and yet you want to tell me that the policy has failed.

That does not seem like failure to me. Perhaps you can explain how those things equate to failure.

Sure. I will do so again.


The macro economic numbers hid the cost, ie the stagnation of the Working Poor and Middle Class.


To the point that it is killing us.


Why the white middle class is dying faster, explained in 6 charts


"In 2015, a blockbuster study came to a surprising conclusion: Middle-aged white Americans are dying younger for the first time in decades, despite positive life expectancy trends in other wealthy countries and other segments of the US population."



"So the rise in mortality for white mid-life people in America since the late 1990s is actually the final stage of a decades-long process. “It’s about the collapse of white middle class,” said Case. Here are the five big takeaways from the researchers’ new opus."



“The cohort that entered the labor market in the ’70s on down, their jobs earnings and prospects are worse. That affected their marriage prospects. Marriages got screwed up. They had children out of wedlock. Their pain levels [are] going up.” All that contributes to the deaths of despair."

 

[Correll]

I don't trust the Chinese. I don't trust the North Koreans. However, they do not respond to attempts at appeasement. They only respond when their backs are against the wall. The only chance we have of improving trade relations with China, and making progress with N. Korea, is if Trump makes them think their backs are against the wall. He was the master of doing that in the business world. Let's hope he succeeds here. If not, then at least he tried.

LOL. Nothing in this ^^^ opinion piece is supported by facts or history. At best it is wishful thinking and a belief that Brinkmanship is a viable method to solve problems.

TR said it best, STFU and carry a big stick. Sadly, the current administration's propensity to use bellicose rhetoric and invest in more weapons of war while starving the State Dept. and diplomacy is myopic and dangerous.

In the context of a trade dispute with China, we have a massive stick. Access to the largest market in the world.

 

[expat_panama]

...since 2011 and the end of the recession, almost all of the increases are accounted for by the change in the US population coupled with our inflation rate.

That's about a 40% increase in seven years. You can believe we've had population/inflation increases in that order but when it comes to money I try to be a bit more careful w/ what I say.

In 2011, the trade deficit came out to roughly $947.40 a year per person in the US.
In 2017, the trade deficit came out to roughly $1151.99 a year per person in the US. Inflation accounts for $1060.15 of the $1151.99.

We may be talking about different kinds of inflation. The CPI numbers---

year cpi index
2011 224.923
2017 245.139
change 9%
​

---showed a total 9% change compared to the 22% change in your per capita trade numbers.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Worth repeating 1000 times, when America decides to lead and use it's leverage, economic and if needed in some cases Internationally, it's military Might, the world has to follow.

I didn't doubt for a second that if Trump negotiated from a position of strength, which America has over the Communist sob's in China; that he would win.

I repeat for effect, walk away from NAFTA, Canada is exploiting your jobs and using you to supplement their socialism, neo-communist, centralized, unaccountable security apparatus nepotism. Walk away from NAFTA and go with bilateral deals, and then build a wall, and Trump will go get a second term, AND, against all odds, go down as the president who saved America.

This AND North Korea potentially becoming denuclearized.

Get 'er done Trump! God Bless America!



US, China tentatively agree on ending American trade deficit: White House


The White House also said China would “significantly increase purchases” of U.S. goods and services to help America’s economic growth and to meet its own growing consumption needs, in an apparent effort to avoid an international trade war.

Among the primary focuses of the consensus: an agreement to expand trade in manufactured goods and services, increase U.S. agriculture and energy exports, and protect both countries’ intellectual property laws.

The White House also said next steps would include the U.S. sending a team to China to work out the details.

President Trump has since his 2016 presidential campaign vowed to improve international trade relationships, including the one with China that last year resulted in a $337 billion trade deficit with the country.

Trump on Friday called the deal "bad for our country” and said, “We're changing it around."

After the White House announcement, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer suggested the agreement falls short on protecting America’s intellectual property.

“The key to a strong agreement is protecting our intellectual property here in America and stopping the Chinese from keeping out our best goods until we hand over our trade secrets,” said Schumer, D-N.Y. “The joint statement has nothing specific on those fronts.”

China recently appears to be sending signals about trying to avoid a trade war.

Beijing has dropped an anti-dumping investigation into imported U.S. sorghum, which it had accused the U.S. of unfairly subsidizing. It has also given approval for a U.S. private equity firm to buy Toshiba's memory chip business.

"China has come to trade," Larry Kudlow, the top White House economic adviser, told reporters. "They are meeting many of our demands. No deal yet, to be sure, and it's probably going to take a while -- it's a process."

ANd what has China actually agreed to do?

Buy more stuff from America?

Oh, please. The Chinese economy is growing at a rate of nearly 7% every year. If China buys 5% more US stuff every year.... that's simply because the economy is growing.

They've told Trump what he wants to hear, and offered him nothing more than what would have happened anyway.

Up, up and up. In Obama's time exports increased from about $6,000 million to about $13,000 million without even doing anything.

Had Trump been in, he'd have boasted about how he made this happen.

So, he needs to double the exports to China to get even close to what happened during Obama's time.

It's just bullshit to keep you people happy.

 

[frigidweirdo]

What I read is that China has agreed to import more goods from the US but no specific numbers as yet are set. Also nothing yet on lessening import duties etc.

But hey let's give credit where it is due! Without Donald Trump calling them out for the obvious trade imbalances, a.k.a non-fair trade, we would be getting the shaft like we have been for decades. It's like Trump said, you can't blame the foreign countries if America is going to be a patsy.

Credit where credit's due? China's just told the US what has been happening the last 20 years anyway. Under Obama US exports to China more than doubled.

Had that been Trump, he'd have been telling everyone how fucking amazing he was for making it happen.

he's playing a silly game, and you people are buying it, for some reason.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

...since 2011 and the end of the recession, almost all of the increases are accounted for by the change in the US population coupled with our inflation rate.

That's about a 40% increase in seven years. You can believe we've had population/inflation increases in that order but when it comes to money I try to be a bit more careful w/ what I say.

In 2011, the trade deficit came out to roughly $947.40 a year per person in the US.
In 2017, the trade deficit came out to roughly $1151.99 a year per person in the US. Inflation accounts for $1060.15 of the $1151.99.

We may be talking about different kinds of inflation. The CPI numbers---

year cpi index
2011 224.923
2017 245.139
change 9%
​

---showed a total 9% change compared to the 22% change in your per capita trade numbers.

Let me this this again using these numbers....Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2018

Total inflation between 2011 and 2017 is 3.2 + 2.1 + 1.5 + 1.6 + 0.1 + 1.3 + 2.1=11.9%

947.40 * 11.9% = 112.74. Add that result to 947.40+112.74=1060.14.

In other words what cost 947.40 in 2011 cost 1060.14 in 2017.

 

[jc456]

I have to wonder if N. Korea and China decided to play Trump's game for the next 6 months. I know this concept is way too abstract for most Republican Supporters here to understand, but I wouldn't be surprised to see XI and KIM try to manipulate our election, and keep chaos alive.

Isn’t that advantage trump?

 

[BluesLegend]

President Trump showing up Obama gain, making him look like the rank amateur that Obama was. MAGA!

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I want Trade Policy designed to serve and protect American interests.

I am willing to discuss that seriously and honestly.

Putting tariffs on Chinese imports is not "trading a capitalist economy" for a "Socialistic one".

A tariff is the Govt telling you that they do not want you to buy that product so they will make it more expense so you will not buy it. It is only put on selected products so it is also the Govt picking winners and losers.

I do not feel it is the Govt's job to do either of those things. I did not like it when the Govt tried to tell me what kind of lightbulb to buy and I will not like it when they try and force me to buy a certain brand of washer or TV or car even.

Every action by the Govt means less freedom for you and and the rest of the nation.

America is not suffering from the current system, as I demonstrated with my numbers in the previous post.

Sure. I will do so again.


The macro economic numbers hid the cost, ie the stagnation of the Working Poor and Middle Class.


To the point that it is killing us.


Why the white middle class is dying faster, explained in 6 charts


"In 2015, a blockbuster study came to a surprising conclusion: Middle-aged white Americans are dying younger for the first time in decades, despite positive life expectancy trends in other wealthy countries and other segments of the US population."



"So the rise in mortality for white mid-life people in America since the late 1990s is actually the final stage of a decades-long process. “It’s about the collapse of white middle class,” said Case. Here are the five big takeaways from the researchers’ new opus."



“The cohort that entered the labor market in the ’70s on down, their jobs earnings and prospects are worse. That affected their marriage prospects. Marriages got screwed up. They had children out of wedlock. Their pain levels [are] going up.” All that contributes to the deaths of despair."

There have always been people left behind when the economy shifts. You do not see too many blacksmiths, cartwrights, telephone operators or gas station attendants any more. Those people had to adapt and adjust.

What you are basically wanting is for the Govt to bring down those that have adjusted and moved on to the level of those who cannot or will not do so. Tariffs and a trade war will not rise up those people you bring up, it will just bring more people into the same boat as they are in.

Tariffs cannot reasonably make something from China cost more than something made here without disrupting the whole system and causing even more pain to those in your study.

There are a lot of very good paying jobs in industries that are dying for people, they literally cannot find enough people to hire. I took this into account when I remade myself after my 20 year Marine Corps career and discovered the world of informatics. And now data scientist are one of the industries in need of people, that makes for great job security.

Nurses, PCTs, Techs and a whole host of other medical related fields that require less than 2 years of schooling are all short of people.

Even trucking companies cannot find enough drivers.

Most of the jobs that left are never coming back because while they were gone technology improved enough that those people would not even be needed if they did.

Adapt or get left behind ,that is the way the world works

 

[BluesLegend]

Manufacturing built the USA, we must continue to lead in manufacturing or our country will fail. You think it can't happen? Every apex superpower in all of human history has fallen. In the end times when debt can no longer sustain them they fail, what's our debt now over $20 trillion.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Manufacturing built the USA, we must continue to lead in manufacturing or our country will fail. You think it can't happen? Every apex superpower in all of human history has fallen. In the end times when debt can no longer sustain them they fail, what's our debt now over $20 trillion.

According to the Fed St Louis...

 

[BluesLegend]

Manufacturing built the USA, we must continue to lead in manufacturing or our country will fail. You think it can't happen? Every apex superpower in all of human history has fallen. In the end times when debt can no longer sustain them they fail, what's our debt now over $20 trillion.

According to the Fed St Louis...

View attachment 194488

I think even you and I would agree the debt is out of control, that we can't go on borrowing money like that forever. Greece is small enough to bail out, all the countries in the world are not big enough to bail out the USA.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Manufacturing built the USA, we must continue to lead in manufacturing or our country will fail. You think it can't happen? Every apex superpower in all of human history has fallen. In the end times when debt can no longer sustain them they fail, what's our debt now over $20 trillion.

According to the Fed St Louis...

View attachment 194488

I think even you and I would agree the debt is out of control, that we can't go on borrowing money like that forever. Greece is small enough to bail out, all the countries in the world are not big enough to bail out the USA.

Without out a doubt, but that is a separate issue than our trade deficit. Our trade deficit is due to what we import that you and I and the rest of the country buys, not what the Govt is spending.

An increase in manufacturing would help revenue a small amount, but I think most of us can agree we do not have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem as a country. We had a record setting month of April as far as revenue and we are still on track to add 1.6 trillion do the debt this CY.

 

[danielpalos]

Worth repeating 1000 times, when America decides to lead and use it's leverage, economic and if needed in some cases Internationally, it's military Might, the world has to follow.

I didn't doubt for a second that if Trump negotiated from a position of strength, which America has over the Communist sob's in China; that he would win.

I repeat for effect, walk away from NAFTA, Canada is exploiting your jobs and using you to supplement their socialism, neo-communist, centralized, unaccountable security apparatus nepotism. Walk away from NAFTA and go with bilateral deals, and then build a wall, and Trump will go get a second term, AND, against all odds, go down as the president who saved America.

This AND North Korea potentially becoming denuclearized.

Get 'er done Trump! God Bless America!



US, China tentatively agree on ending American trade deficit: White House


The White House also said China would “significantly increase purchases” of U.S. goods and services to help America’s economic growth and to meet its own growing consumption needs, in an apparent effort to avoid an international trade war.

Among the primary focuses of the consensus: an agreement to expand trade in manufactured goods and services, increase U.S. agriculture and energy exports, and protect both countries’ intellectual property laws.

The White House also said next steps would include the U.S. sending a team to China to work out the details.

President Trump has since his 2016 presidential campaign vowed to improve international trade relationships, including the one with China that last year resulted in a $337 billion trade deficit with the country.

Trump on Friday called the deal "bad for our country” and said, “We're changing it around."

After the White House announcement, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer suggested the agreement falls short on protecting America’s intellectual property.

“The key to a strong agreement is protecting our intellectual property here in America and stopping the Chinese from keeping out our best goods until we hand over our trade secrets,” said Schumer, D-N.Y. “The joint statement has nothing specific on those fronts.”

China recently appears to be sending signals about trying to avoid a trade war.

Beijing has dropped an anti-dumping investigation into imported U.S. sorghum, which it had accused the U.S. of unfairly subsidizing. It has also given approval for a U.S. private equity firm to buy Toshiba's memory chip business.

"China has come to trade," Larry Kudlow, the top White House economic adviser, told reporters. "They are meeting many of our demands. No deal yet, to be sure, and it's probably going to take a while -- it's a process."

China just needs to become the EU's, new best friend in the whole wide world.

 

[BluesLegend]

Manufacturing built the USA, we must continue to lead in manufacturing or our country will fail. You think it can't happen? Every apex superpower in all of human history has fallen. In the end times when debt can no longer sustain them they fail, what's our debt now over $20 trillion.

According to the Fed St Louis...

View attachment 194488

I think even you and I would agree the debt is out of control, that we can't go on borrowing money like that forever. Greece is small enough to bail out, all the countries in the world are not big enough to bail out the USA.

Without out a doubt, but that is a separate issue than our trade deficit. Our trade deficit is due to what we import that you and I and the rest of the country buys, not what the Govt is spending.

An increase in manufacturing would help revenue a small amount, but I think most of us can agree we do not have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem as a country. We had a record setting month of April as far as revenue and we are still on track to add 1.6 trillion do the debt this CY.

We have a gigantic spending problem. Our standard of living is being funded by debt, we are living high on the hog and dumping our debts off onto future generations. Debt destroyed many of history's world powers, this pattern has repeated again and again.

 

[expat_panama]

Total inflation between 2011 and 2017 is 3.2 + 2.1 + 1.5 + 1.6 + 0.1 + 1.3 + 2.1=11.9%

That first "3.2" is the increase from 2010 to 2011, so we'd have to only look at the change in prices between 2011 and 2017, considering that we're looking at only the change in trade levels between 2011 and 2017.

Also, if we're looking at the cumulative % increase we have to multiply the %'s. Like, if you increase a $100 up by 100% to $200, and then you do that again, you got $400. That's why it's easier just to look at the beginning and ending index levels. Let's get them directly from the bls.gov --

--to get a total 2011 to 2017 change of 245/224-1 from 2011 to 2017 = 9%. It's the same way we used the beginning and ending trade balance levels directly from census.gov (1152/947-1) and got 22%.

One last thing, those "trade balance levels" are not some balance in some bank, they're the total level of transactions for each of those years. What I'm saying is that our numbers are correct, they just don't mean a lot.