Ukraine, Losing In Donbass...

[Tom Paine 1949]

The mere fact that you mentioned Navalny ruins all the theories you came up with once and for all. The fucker has long since been forgotten and not mentioned here ever. Nobody gives a shit about him, at all! You give an impression of being an educated man but this shit concerning Russia astounds me by its sheer out of touchness with the real life.

But the West gives a shit, and he has a very nationalist “patriotic” history that means — if he survives — he could be a useful compromise character to negotiate an end to war. NOBODY outside the security services and administrative elite, and really practically nobody within them, has a popular base and gets sympathetic coverage in the press and media in Putin’s Russia. Putin saw to that.

Of course there are ultra-nationalist commentators and sundry “theorists” and news media personalities — but they cannot negotiate peace. Most still favor expanding the war and trying to crush or wipe out Ukraine.

 

[AlexanderPK]

Most still favor expanding the war and trying to crush or wipe out Ukraine.

That's where you're right. But not the ultra-nationalist commentators but the general public. We weren't like that at first but now, after all that Ukies did to Donbass, we are.

 

[beagle9]

I’ve spent a lot of time arguing with Ukrainian nationalists this year … who think Putin will likely be overthrown. Even Saddam Hussein, supported by the Sunni minority of his country, survived for many decades based on his security forces. So I don’t say it is likely, only possible, Putin will be removed. He may be assassinated or die of rumored disease.

I certainly don’t expect the “liberal” dissidents will suddenly come to power. That is impossible. Another “strongman” from the siloviki may come to power, or factions may fight among themselves, for example the military vs. Putin’s security police. Or mafias will arise again and rule whole industries and cities.

One of the few non-security services “national leaders” who could be chosen as a compromise leader — if he survives at all — might be the jailed but patriotic & non-liberal “anti-corruption” dissident Navalny. He came out opposing Putin’s war and would be a good front man for security services who want to end the war. Anything is possible once Putin is out of the picture.

The Russian chauvinist population is not decisive. There is no “civil society” by which they can mobilize themselves, though they certainly can be manipulated. Many share almost fascist values, it is true.

But even the ordinary workers who are now chauvinists and convinced Russian imperialists can ultimately tire of chaos and abuse, failure and pointless war. The Ukrainians were supposed to be a brotherly people, and produced many Soviet leaders like Brezhnev. At a certain point what we saw in 1991 in Moscow leading may repeat itself.

The governors of far off provinces and Siberian cities, and the citizens there, will also not remain forever loyal to Moscow if it proves unable to rule and provide necessary economic support. Moscow cannot exactly nuke Vladivostok.

You just explained why it's probably imperative that Putin gets victory in Ukraine, and probably at any cost.

If they get victory, then think about all the things that will go Russia's way (not talking about imperialist thoughts, but just from the win), otherwise it will hoist Putin to the highest levels ever in Russia, give him the see I told you so attitude, and his propaganda to put an end to the relationships with those who helped fight him and his soldier's in Ukraine.. The world will be a completely changed place where resets will be going on all over the place.

This is how desperate Putin is to finish what he started I'm betting...... Does he still control the card's because of Russia's vast size and numbers, and because of Russia's ultimate weapons of mass destruction that are dedicated to last ditch efforts to save Russia from what it see's as a possible NATO threat to it's territorial integrity overall via Ukraine ??

This stuff needs to be studied and analyzed big time by the think tanks on war and the total meaning behind it ALL.

 

[Toro]

Toro Half the Canada are descendants of the not finished off properly Banderites so your stance is understandable. The bullet between your granddad's ears would have solved today's problem with Ukraine, too bad Stalin was soft on you.

And you wonder why the West wants Russia to lose.

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

 

[AlexanderPK]

View attachment 747686

That's what Hohols have been doing from day one and the "civilised" morons of the world told vice versa. Amazing! Ask your grampa how it really works with their MO.

 

[ESay]

I'd put on the table the lifting of sanctions if Russia back's off in order to negotiate an end to the war with Ukraine. That's a huge bargaining start to end the situation, and I'd talk with our allie's about cutting a deal with the sanctions if Russia will back off, and put an end to operations in Ukraine.

It would be a huge start for you, but a no-starter for Russia. You seem not to understand the mindset of Putin or a common Russian. A compromise especially with significant concessions from their part will be considered as 'losing a face'.

On the contrary, I expect them to follow a path with Iran. When possible drawbacks from the sanctions will be mitigated by strengthening oppressive apparatus and propaganda inside the country. With keeping aggressive rhetoric and actions on international stage.

 

[ESay]

Might be losing in the skirmishes here and/or there, but Russia isn't losing the war that it started yet, because it isn't retreating back across to it's border for the safety of it's border yet. Makes sense right ?

In some parts it did retreat behind their border. But if you mean the currently occupied lands, then yes it seems that Russia will manage to hold them.

 

[gipper]

In some parts it did retreat behind their border. But if you mean the currently occupied lands, then yes it seems that Russia will manage to hold them.

Good thing too, beccause we don’t want another 14,000 Russian speaking Ukrainians mass murdered by Ukrainian Nazis.

 

[ESay]

Good thing too, beccause we don’t want another 14,000 Russian speaking Ukrainians mass murdered by Ukrainian Nazis.

If you were in a health mental condition, you would remember that the figure includes combatants from the both sides.

BTW, the vast majority of casualties happened in 2014-15 when there was an active fighting in Donbas. In other words, when your hero Putin decided to 'protect' people there and began supplying weapons and 'volunteers'.

 

[gipper]

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Proving once again what a complete and utter dupe you are of the establishment.

 

[luiza]

I keep hearing people repeat that nonsense over and over.
But the truth is, neither Putin, or any government official, or Russian army general, ever said how many days / weeks it would take to invade and occupy Kiev.
Just more made up U.S. government and media lies.
Truth is, just a token force of Russian troops were sent to the outskirts of Kiev as a strategic feign. In order to draw Ukrainian forces to protect Kiev and away from the Donbas area. Which then allowed the Russian army to overwhelm the remaining Ukrainian forces and invade and occupy the Donbas.

Also thought that Paine's post was totally misinformed and therefore strewn with errors .

Your account of how Russia completely fooled the US Nazis initially by feigning an attack on Kiev in order to bamboozle them is 100% accurate .
MSM deliberately ignored this and have had to maintain their absurd story because they locked themselves into a huge initial lie which they now cannot undo.
Exactly the same thing happened with Kherson where they reported the Nazis regaining this city when nothing of the sort actually happened .

As I have said elsewhere , the only big fly in the ointment from Moscow's perspective is the remarkable lateness of the big winter freeze and particularly down south along the Black Sea coastal strip.
Looking at forecasts for the next ten days still does not show a required drop below zero , day and night, and what could have been a late November ground offensive is now looking like February at this moment .That has several large potential negatives , not the least being the UK promising to send them a few clapped out tanks along with a lorry load of spare parts and three spanners !!

 

[beagle9]

It would be a huge start for you, but a no-starter for Russia. You seem not to understand the mindset of Putin or a common Russian. A compromise especially with significant concessions from their part will be considered as 'losing a face'.

On the contrary, I expect them to follow a path with Iran. When possible drawbacks from the sanctions will be mitigated by strengthening oppressive apparatus and propaganda inside the country. With keeping aggressive rhetoric and actions on international stage.

Not willing to exhaust all options for a peaceful resolution to this thing, uhhhh is maybe us being war monger's instead of peacemaker's ??... Undoubtedly we are thinking it best to be on board with the attempt to defeat or deplete Russian power in the region by proxy, but will it work ??

 

[beagle9]

Good thing too, beccause we don’t want another 14,000 Russian speaking Ukrainians mass murdered by Ukrainian Nazis.

Wow, and if true, then forgetting that in all of this would be amazing. That needs to also be addressed in the peace talks between the two at war with each other, because it needs to be gotten to the bottom of. It can't be ignored, and it has to be addressed by open minds seeking peace and equal justice.

 

[beagle9]

If you were in a health mental condition, you would remember that the figure includes combatants from the both sides.

BTW, the vast majority of casualties happened in 2014-15 when there was an active fighting in Donbas. In other words, when your hero Putin decided to 'protect' people there and began supplying weapons and 'volunteers'.

Is there a problem with protecting the Ukranian Russian's living in the region under Ukraine governance, that were possibly under duress from that government for whatever reason's ??? These are ok questions right ?