ScienceRocks
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Southerly shear is still keeping the MLC and LLC displaced by about 50 miles, but this thing is looking pretty good on IR. This could start strengthening very soon as the models are forecasting the shear to lessen. You can also notice there's a outflow channel to the northeast quad moving air from the system to the northeast...This is occurring as there's a trough at 500 millibars at 82-84 north just to the north of this cyclone. gfs 2012082618 Forecast 850500shear Java Animation The computer model forecast this to pull out to the northeast as the cyclone turns northwestward by 24-36 hours.
North Atlantic - Upper Level WV/IR - Latest Available - Large Scale
Some of this shear is also being caused by a ULL over the Yucatan at 22/90.
North Atlantic - 24hr Shear Tendency - Latest Available - Large Scale
Shear is lowering.
At 24-36 hours the second trough drops out of the upper midwest and breaks the ridging to the north. This allows the tropical cyclone to turn northward. gfs 2012082618 Forecast slp Java Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012082618&field=850-500mb+Shear&hour=018hr
This trough is from 1013-500 millibars as you can see. New orleans is very much threaten by this system, and if the models are right about the anticyclone forming over this system this could be 100-115 mph storm at landfall.
North Atlantic - Upper Level WV/IR - Latest Available - Large Scale
Some of this shear is also being caused by a ULL over the Yucatan at 22/90.
North Atlantic - 24hr Shear Tendency - Latest Available - Large Scale
Shear is lowering.
At 24-36 hours the second trough drops out of the upper midwest and breaks the ridging to the north. This allows the tropical cyclone to turn northward. gfs 2012082618 Forecast slp Java Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012082618&field=850-500mb+Shear&hour=018hr
This trough is from 1013-500 millibars as you can see. New orleans is very much threaten by this system, and if the models are right about the anticyclone forming over this system this could be 100-115 mph storm at landfall.