Tropical storm ISAAC

Discussion in 'Science and Technology' started by Matthew, Aug 26, 2012.

  1. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    wtnt44 knhc 260244
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    tropical storm isaac discussion number 20
    nws national hurricane center miami fl al092012
    1100 pm edt sat aug 25 2012

    satellite and radar data from cuba show that isaac is moving
    parallel to...but offshore of...the northern coast of cuba.
    The hurricane hunter aircraft did not find any stronger winds
    during the latter portion of the flight and the initial wind
    speed remains 50 kt. However...thunderstorm activity has
    increased in a band to the north and east of the center during
    the past few hours and isaac may be on the verge of strengthening.
    The next reconnaissance flight is expected to be in the cyclone
    around 0600 utc.

    The initial motion estimate is 305/15 kt. Isaac should continue on
    a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next 24
    hours or so between a large low/mid-level low pressure system over
    the northwestern caribbean sea and a mid-level ridge over the
    western atlantic. The model guidance is tightly clustered during
    this time and shows a track over the straits of florida and near or
    over the florida keys. In about 48 hours...isaac will be nearing
    the western portion of the ridge and should move in a general
    northwestward heading over the eastern gulf of mexico...but large
    differences exist between the latest ecmwf and gfs models after
    that time. The ecmwf recurves isaac ahead of a mid-latitude
    trough over the eastern united states...while the gfs slows isaac
    down as the trough bypasses the system and the model then turns
    the cyclone westward to the south of a developing mid- to
    upper-level ridge. This bifurcation is also seen in the most recent
    ecmwf and gfs ensembles with about an equal number of members
    showing recurvature versus a continue northwesterly track toward
    the northern gulf coast. Since the uncertainty is large and either
    of these scenarios are possible at this time...the nhc forecast is
    lies between them. The updated track is very close to the previous
    advisory through 36 hours. After that time...the track has been
    adjusted westward...but it remains east of the dynamical model
    consensus to retain some continuity with the previous forecast.

    The upper-level environment is expected to become more conducive for
    strengthening during the next couple of days as isaac moves over
    the warm waters of the florida straits and eastern gulf. Steady
    strengthening is expected and isaac is expected to be at or near
    hurricane strength when the center reaches the florida keys.
    Additional strengthening is likely while the cyclone moves over the
    eastern gulf of mexico. The new intensity forecast is a little
    higher than the previous advisory and is between the ships/lgem
    guidance and the more aggressive hwrf model.

    It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track since
    significant hazards extend well away from the center. Since large
    uncertainties remain in the extended portion of the forecast...it
    is too early to determine exactly where and when isaac will make
    landfall along the gulf coast.

    Forecast positions and max winds

    init 26/0300z 22.1n 77.2w 50 kt 60 mph
    12h 26/1200z 23.4n 79.4w 55 kt 65 mph
    24h 27/0000z 24.6n 81.8w 65 kt 75 mph...near florida keys
    36h 27/1200z 25.8n 83.7w 75 kt 85 mph
    48h 28/0000z 27.2n 85.2w 85 kt 100 mph
    72h 29/0000z 29.5n 86.5w 90 kt 105 mph
    96h 30/0000z 31.5n 86.5w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
    120h 31/0000z 34.0n 86.0w 25 kt 30 mph...inland

    $$
    forecaster brown
     

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  2. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    O'shit!
     

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  4. Politico
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    Politico Gold Member

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    So basically it's going to rain a lot lol.
     
  5. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Sure, it will rain a lot as in 5-20 inches.:eusa_boohoo: Not just rain, but strong winds and storm surge that will likely kill people.:eusa_shhh:
     
  6. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    [​IMG]

    2:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 26
    Location: 22.9°N 78.0°W
    Moving: NW at 17 mph
    Min pressure: 997 mb
    Max sustained: 60 mph
     

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    Last edited: Aug 26, 2012
  7. Mr. H.
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    Many offshore oil and gas facilities are being shut in and evacuated.
     
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    Automated message from my son's school that they have cancelled classes for tomorrow...one week into school and already a day off. Oh well, we don't get snow days in January.
     
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    One of my daughters lives in the Pensacola beach area and the schools are closed tomorrow and houses close to the waters have mandatory evacuation.
     
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    That's just Gawd cuntinuing to bless murka.
    Equal blessings for all !
    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8h_qp7qqv4]8/26/12--Southern California Slammed with Multiple Earthquakes NONSTOP - YouTube[/ame]
     

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