And shitforbrains, the rainy season ends in 10 weeks, El Niño or not.You dumb fuck. The current El Nino is not a model, it is an observed phenomenon. Tell us about all of this in July. The predictions are based on percentages of past El Nino's. So the weather may happen a bit earlier, or a bit later. Or, with a much lower probability, may not happen at all.La Nina weather patterns bring drought conditions to the Southwest.Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?
In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)
Exactly like the winter has been. The climate models are DEAD WRONG.
This is what is frustrating when communicating with people of very low scientific or mathematical background. They think they know everything, and show they know nothing at all. Grow up, use the tool in front of you, and actually learn something.