Tracking the el nino

[Weatherman2020]

Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?

In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)

La Nina weather patterns bring drought conditions to the Southwest.
Exactly like the winter has been. The climate models are DEAD WRONG.

You dumb fuck. The current El Nino is not a model, it is an observed phenomenon. Tell us about all of this in July. The predictions are based on percentages of past El Nino's. So the weather may happen a bit earlier, or a bit later. Or, with a much lower probability, may not happen at all.

This is what is frustrating when communicating with people of very low scientific or mathematical background. They think they know everything, and show they know nothing at all. Grow up, use the tool in front of you, and actually learn something.

And shitforbrains, the rainy season ends in 10 weeks, El Niño or not.

 

[jc456]

Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?

In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)

why have we had a polar vortex event and gearing up for another next week? I have my trust the prediction of the polar vortex starting Sunday wayyyyyyyy ahead of your el nino. So, which is it, is the polar vortex real or is the el nino?

 

[jc456]

Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?

In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)

La Nina weather patterns bring drought conditions to the Southwest.
Exactly like the winter has been. The climate models are DEAD WRONG.

You dumb fuck. The current El Nino is not a model, it is an observed phenomenon. Tell us about all of this in July. The predictions are based on percentages of past El Nino's. So the weather may happen a bit earlier, or a bit later. Or, with a much lower probability, may not happen at all.

This is what is frustrating when communicating with people of very low scientific or mathematical background. They think they know everything, and show they know nothing at all. Grow up, use the tool in front of you, and actually learn something.

so basically you have no fkn idea when any of this el nino actually takes affect. So in order to be correct you wait it out and then declare victory over a year later? Is that what you're saying? hahahahahahahahahahaaha

 

[Billy_Bob]

Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?

In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)

La Nina weather patterns bring drought conditions to the Southwest.
Exactly like the winter has been. The climate models are DEAD WRONG.

Crick doesn't understand the question, the system, or the causal relationships to climactic events and weather pattern change. The fact we have El Niño conditions in an ocean but a La Niña weather patterns over the land is a paradox they cant understand.

This paradox is why temps are falling fast and the El Niño is not effecting and upward trend to date. They are going to be real disappointed when the "expected warming" this year falls flat and their dream of ever upward temps doesn't materialize.

I predicted a no step increase last year and that prediction is coming to fruition..

 

[Crick]

You predicted there'd be no el Nino and then repeatedly predicted the imminent end to the el Nino in progeess and you were consistently and perfectly WRONG ON EVERY SINGLE OCCASION. I see absolutely no reason to take your word for jack shit now or ever.

 

[Skull Pilot]

A rain storm rather than a snow storm that would have dumped about a foot of snow

Thanks El Nino

 

[Weatherman2020]

You predicted there'd be no el Nino and then repeatedly predicted the imminent end to the el Nino in progeess and you were consistently and perfectly WRONG ON EVERY SINGLE OCCASION. I see absolutely no reason to take your word for jack shit now or ever.

Who is "you"? El Niño formed over a year ago.
My point is that all of the climate predictions about the event were 100% wrong. California annual rainfall remains well below average and only 10 weeks remain in the rainy season.

Climate models were WRONG.

 

[Crick]

The "you" is the author of the immediately preceding post, Billy Bob. The predictions under discussion here concern the el Nino itself. The ENSO index does not make predictions for California or Australia or the Caribbean or anywhere else. Billy Boy has been claiming this el Nino is going to disappear any minute now for the last six months, claimed his mail order meteorology certificate made him a superior expert to the PhDs at NOAA and made a complete fool of himself doing so.

 

[Weatherman2020]

The "you" is the author of the immediately preceding post, Billy Bob. The predictions under discussion here concern the el Nino itself. The ENSO index does not make predictions for California or Australia or the Caribbean or anywhere else. Billy Boy has been claiming this el Nino is going to disappear any minute now for the last six months, claimed his mail order meteorology certificate made him a superior expert to the PhDs at NOAA and made a complete fool of himself doing so.

No one predicts an El Niño. It's an observed condition. Just as the OP shows in the first post, it's simply a recording of sea temperatures.

 

[Crick]

Here is a link to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center which puts out
Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Whose primary product is an ENSO advisory that looks like this (highlights mine):

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 14 January 2016 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Synopsis: A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer. A strong El Niño continued during December, with well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All weekly Niño indices decreased slightly from the previous month (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while still well above average, weakened (Fig. 3) due to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific. During the last week, another westerly wind burst occurred in the east-central Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained strongly negative. Also, convection remained strong over the central and east-central tropical Pacific, and suppressed over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño episode. Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will weaken with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer (Fig. 6). The forecasters are in agreement with the model consensus, though the exact timing of the transition is difficult to predict. A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). El Niño has already produced significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday January 21st). The seasonal outlooks for January – March indicate an increased likelihood of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States. Above-average temperatures are favored in the West and northern half of the country with below-average temperatures favored in the southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 February 2016. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected]. Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service College Park, MD 20740

Billy Boy has been PREDICTING that this el Nino was going to immediately end each and every time he posted in this thread and each and every time he was WRONG. If you don't want to believe me, simply flip back through this thread for Billy Boy's posts. His errors are not difficult to spot.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Here is a link to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center which puts out
Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Whose primary product is an ENSO advisory that looks like this (highlights mine):

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 14 January 2016 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Synopsis: A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer. A strong El Niño continued during December, with well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All weekly Niño indices decreased slightly from the previous month (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while still well above average, weakened (Fig. 3) due to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific. During the last week, another westerly wind burst occurred in the east-central Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained strongly negative. Also, convection remained strong over the central and east-central tropical Pacific, and suppressed over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño episode. Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will weaken with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer (Fig. 6). The forecasters are in agreement with the model consensus, though the exact timing of the transition is difficult to predict. A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). El Niño has already produced significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday January 21st). The seasonal outlooks for January – March indicate an increased likelihood of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States. Above-average temperatures are favored in the West and northern half of the country with below-average temperatures favored in the southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 February 2016. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected]. Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service College Park, MD 20740

Billy Boy has been PREDICTING that this el Nino was going to immediately end each and every time he posted in this thread and each and every time he was WRONG. If you don't want to believe me, simply flip back through this thread for Billy Boy's posts. His errors are not difficult to spot.

Like I said, they don't predict El Niño. They can toss out guesses later on what's going on, but they never say El Niño will begin to form 6 months from now.

And to my point, climate models are primitive tools equivilant to tossing darts blindfolded. The climate models got it completely wrong as to what El Niño will do.

 

[Old Rocks]

First of all, NOAA did say six months before the El Nino started that there was a good chance that it would occur. And six months before it became a super El Nino, they also stated that there was a good chance it would appoach or exceed the 1997-1998 El Nino. So what you are claiming is a lie.

Second, they have been doing pretty well with their predictions concerning the effects of the El Nino. Some misses, sure. The whole prediction bit is based on probability from past events. So you are not going to hit 100%. However, they have done far, far better than fruitloops like you, jc, and Silly Billy.

 

[Weatherman2020]

First of all, NOAA did say six months before the El Nino started that there was a good chance that it would occur. And six months before it became a super El Nino, they also stated that there was a good chance it would appoach or exceed the 1997-1998 El Nino. So what you are claiming is a lie.

Second, they have been doing pretty well with their predictions concerning the effects of the El Nino. Some misses, sure. The whole prediction bit is based on probability from past events. So you are not going to hit 100%. However, they have done far, far better than fruitloops like you, jc, and Silly Billy.

Link or lie.

 

[Old Rocks]

Look, you little liar, Crick gave you that link in post #850.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Look, you little liar, Crick gave you that link in post #850.

Oh, so 2 days ago, Jan 14, 2016 they predicted an El Niño.

The level of stupidity of the Goreical sheep is mind boggling.

 

[Old Rocks]

Look, you little liar, Crick gave you that link in post #850.

Oh, so 2 days ago, Jan 14, 2016 they predicted an El Niño.

The level of stupidity of the Goreical sheep is mind boggling.

No, you fucking asshole, that is the site where you can also get their previous predictions.

 

[Crick]

Go to the link, choose ARCHIVE from their home page. Pick your date. Here is the first one I pulled up: May of 2014. Its header reads:

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 May 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer.
​

You've got some balls (or a shortage of grey matter (or an ego that needs correcting)) calling yourself a Weatherman.

 

[Skull Pilot]

My gas bill was less that 200 bucks last month

Thanks El Nino

 

[Old Rocks]

That is your imagination, Skull. Jc, Weatherman, and Silly Billy all said it cannot be happening, so it must be your imagination.

 

[Skull Pilot]

That is your imagination, Skull. Jc, Weatherman, and Silly Billy all said it cannot be happening, so it must be your imagination.

All right Rocks in the Head please find a quote where I denied the earth was warming slightly or that people didn't have an effect on the planet.

I'll wait